Thursday, August 08, 2019

Such a great difference is difficult to comprehend.

Given a choice, which of two men would we prefer asked Chetan Bhagat. "One, a Bachelor of Arts graduate. Two, a 12th pass, in-demand electrician in one of Mumbai's neighborhoods. Or, say, if your cousin was looking to get married, which of the two would you recommend?" Bhagat has degrees from the most prestigious colleges in India, is a well known writer and worked for Goldman Sachs, no less. Whereas, 3,700 PhD holders, 50,000 graduates, 28,000 PGs applied for 62 posts of messengers in UP police last year. "One can hire a 'simple graduate' in India for around ten thousand rupees a month, maybe even less in smaller towns. An in-demand electrician in Mumbai, say Bandra, could easily make eighty thousand to one hundred thousand rupees a month." Yet, who should "your sweet little sister" marry? he asks. It's not people's fault that our education system is so poor that over 80% of our graduates are unfit for employment. Most artisans in India are 'mistiries' or 'cowboys' who have come from distant villages and have learnt their trade from a 'cousin' and the "sweet little sister" maybe educated and unwilling to live away from the facilities of a city. Is vocational training the answer? "Nationally, only 1.8% of the population reported receiving formal vocational/technical training in 2017-18," wrote Anand and Thampi. Of them, "As many as 33% of the formally trained youth were unemployed in 2017-18." Trained in what? "The bulk of the trainees were in the fields of electronics, IT/ITeS, apparels and mechanical engineering." No electrician, plumber, mason or carpenter. But, there is more trouble ahead. "Sectors including ecommerce, BFSI (banking, financial services and insurance) and BPO-IT-enabled services could see a drop of up to 37% in 2019-23 compared with the earlier estimates for 2018-22." Artisans work in the informal sector and, though they maybe earning well today, their incomes fall to zero if they fall ill or meet with an accident. People look for salaried jobs for the security they offer. But Bhagat is right in that, "In 2017-18, around 45% of regular workers  earned less than Rs 10,000 per month, and about 12% earned less than Rs 5,000 per month." These wages are impossible to survive on. Why do people take such jobs? Because, "While the unemployment rate for all age groups increased from 2.2% (2011-12) to 6.1% (2017-18), youth unemployment rate surged to a level never witnessed before in the Indian economy, increasing from 6.1% (2011-12) to 17.8% (2017-18)," wrote Prof S Mehrotra. Agriculture jobs declined from 232 million to 205.3 million and manufacturing lost 3.5 million jobs in that period. People leaving low paid agriculture sector is a good thing, wrote Prof Himanshu, but "the economy should have created at least 83 million jobs between 2012 and 2018 to accommodate those who have entered the labor force and those forced out of agriculture". With too many people chasing too few jobs there is no need to pay higher wages. The "sweet little sister" must learn to adjust.

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