Friday, August 02, 2019

Brave to take a risk with re-election.

"US President Donald Trump has said he will impose a fresh 10% tariff on another $300 billion of Chinese goods, in a sharp escalation of trade war between the two countries. It came after the latest round of bilateral talks showed little sign of a breakthrough. The new tariffs, due to take effect on 1 September, effectively tax all Chinese imports to the US." "Adding tariffs is definitely not a constructive way to resolve economic and trade frictions, it's not the correct way," said China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Those making money from trade with China and stock market brokers are unhappy They say it will raise consumer prices in the US and hurt company profits. The inflation rate came in at 1.65% in June despite a 25% tariff on $250 billion worth of imports from China, when China wanted to renegotiate an agreement reached after weeks of talks between the two nations. The US Federal Reserve has a 2% upper limit on consumer inflation. "US President Donald Trump's trade war with China is backfiring and impacting the US economy, according to his former chief economic adviser." Gary Cohn is a Democrat and used to be president of Goldman Sachs Bank, described as "a great vampire squid wrapped around the face of humanity" by Matt Taibbi, so his views are doubly suspect. Cohn thinks that Trump's tariffs are actually helping China because the Chinese government wants to slow down its economy anyway. If so, why are they bothering to talk? And why are they threatening retaliation when they should be thanking Trump and sending him a present? China's economy is slowing and there may not be enough jobs for its newly qualified university graduates. If China cannot sell its goods in the US, its biggest customer, factories will have to close and people will lose jobs. There have been mass protests in Hong Kong for over 2 months against Chinese rule, but the mainland has not responded to the protests as it did to Tiananmen Square protests in 1989. Not because the Chinese government has suddenly become civilized and human, but because China still needs Hong Kong as a financial gateway. Trading in shares of Chinese companies are restricted on Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges so companies list on Hong Kong exchange to raise money from foreign investors. "China's total corporate, household and government debt rose to 303% of GDP in the first quarter of 2019, from 297% in the same period a year earlier," said the Institute of International Finance.It is now 15% of all global debt. China's wealth is based on blatant theft of intellectual properties of the US, Europe and other countries and its barbaric practice of forcing foreign companies to transfer technology to domestic ones. Donald Trump is to face re-election next year and may lose if the economy loses steam. Still, he is confronting China when all previous presidents have talked big and done nothing. Surely, that makes him a true patriot. 

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