Saturday, August 24, 2019

Is it there for the asking?

In a speech to Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) in Abu Dhabi, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said that "political stability and predictable policies framework are key driving forces for investors and these factors have made India an attractive investment destination in the world". "We also see to it that investors get good returns on their investment," he said. Behind his back, even as he was speechifying, the Finance Minister was "scrapping surcharge on foreign portfolio  investors (FPIs) and domestic market players". This year's budget proposed to "increase the surcharge levied on top of the applicable income tax rate from 15% to 25% for those with taxable incomes between Rs 2 crore and Rs 5 crore, and to 37% for those earning more than Rs 5 crore, taking the effective tax rate for them to 39% and 42.74% respectively". This was effective also on FPIs. This year's budget was presented on 5 July, so a reversal within 6 weeks is not a sign of "predictable policies". But why the change? Because, "Since July, FPIs have net sold stocks worth about Rs 24,500 crore, translating to about $3.4 billion, official data showed." The stock market index the Sensex closed "up 228 points or 0.6% on the day" to close at 36,701. On 5 July, the Sensex rose 251 points to 39,981 just after opening, but finished the day down 394 points at 39.513. So the Sensex has lost over 10% since the budget. The rupee has dropped to 71.5 to the dollar today from 68.74 on 4 July, the day before the budget on withdrawal of just $3.4. Why when India had foreign exchange reserves in excess of $430 billion on 9 August? "The Centre is finalising a list of essential hygiene products, which is likely to form the basis for expansion of price control from medicines and medical devices to other important health products." Why would anyone invest if they are not allowed to set prices to make profits? Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), which is considered stable and long-term, as opposed to FPIs, was $44.4 billion in the last financial year, the lowest in 6 years. Not just price controls, the government is working on an import substitution policy to support domestic industry. In 1978, China's GDP was $293.6 billion, compared to India's at $293.2 billion. In 2018, China's GDP was $10.8 trillion while we are struggling at $2.85 trillion because we followed import substitution for too long, wrote V Kaul. If there is "political stability", as Modi claimed, then why is his party the BJP encouraging defections of politicians from the Congress, including child rapists? In his quest for absolute power Modi has been aided by the Supreme Court, wrote Gautam Bhatia. Where money is concerned even the most ardent supporter will ask for profits. Can Modi increase investment just by asking?

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