Thursday, August 01, 2019

The magic of helicopter drop.

"India has been pushed to the seventh place in the global GDP rankings in 2018 with the UK and France forging ahead to the fifth and sixth spots, data compiled by the World Bank showed." Apparently, it is because, "In 2017, the rupee appreciated against the dollar, and in 2018 it depreciated against the dollar," said D Pant. But the pound sterling has fallen to $1.21 to one pound today, from $1.35 to one pound in 2017. Despite a falling pound due to total confusion about whether Britain will crash out of Europe without a deal, the British economy retains its spot above ours. Britain runs a trade deficit and imports a quarter of its food from Europe, so a weak pound should have severely impacted its economy. In India, sales of automobiles, including two wheelers, are falling, with market leader Maruti Suzuki suffering a 37% fall in sales of its cars in July, compared to July 2018. Despite almost everyone above the age of 10 years carrying a mobile phone, telecom company Airtel reported the biggest quarterly loss of Rs 28.66 billion in 14 years. People are refusing to spend money and consumer confidence is down. Even sales of FMCG, which are articles of daily use, are not growing. Household savings have declined. "The financial savings of households has also fallen as a percentage of gross domestic product, and the combined borrowing of the Union government, state governments and public sector entities such as the Food Corporation of India is already absorbing almost the entire flow of household financial savings," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. The only thing that seems to be growing is tax collection, with the Goods and Services Tax (GST) squeezing Rs 1.02 trillion out of consumers in July, compared to Rs 968.23 billion a year ago. This is a tax on sales, so how this is increasing when people are reducing their purchases is a mystery. The Prime Minister Narendra Modi wants India to grow to a $5 trillion economy in 5 years by 2024 when he will be up for re-election. Which means a doubling of our GDP in 5 years, or a growth rate of around 15% per year. But, our economy is growing at around 7%, which is also doubtful. A nominal 12% growth rate of GDP assumed in the budget is fanciful, wrote O Goswami. How to stimulate growth? The government has found, what it thinks, is the perfect solution. Helicopter drop of money. By throwing lots of money at farmers, traders and other vote banks it will increase spending, which, in turn, will increase demand so that companies will have to set up new factories, increasing jobs. More social schemes have been announced and taxes and import duties have been increased to pay for them. We will wait for the magic to work.

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