Sunday, August 18, 2019

Don't know about others, we'll be fine.

"Corporate investors tracking corporates in the busy earning season are slowly waking up to alarming yield inversions in advanced economies of the US and the UK," wrote A Mudgill. Yields have flattened in Germany, Japan, Singapore and Australia, pointing to a global slowdown. "Inversion of yield is a phenomenon where long-term bond yield drops below short-term yield. It is widely tracked by financial markets to track signs of recession." Not just flat yields, yields have turned negative on government bonds, with German 3-month bond yields at -0.558% while the 10-year bond yield is at -0.593%. Normally, yields on long-term bonds are higher, to reflect financial risks that may arise in the future but returns on long-term German bonds are lower than on short-term ones, known as inversion of yields. Not just that, "Jyske Bank, the third largest bank in Denmark announced it will pay customers to take out mortgages by offering negative interest rates. Jyske Bank will offer homebuyers an interest rate of -0.5%." "It would have been unthinkable even a few years ago to have high-yield/speculative/junk bonds being sold for negative yields," wrote VA Nageswaran. A report by the Wall Street Journal said that "14 European companies with junk bonds worth more than 3 billion euros ($3.38 billion) are trading with negative yields." "Globally, about $13 trillion of debt is trading at negative yields." "King dollar is rising. Other currencies are falling like ninepins,' wrote A Mukherjee. So, governments resort to currency swaps which are usually what "a bank has to pay to borrow dollars by this circuitous route rather than taking an outright Libor loan". "Take India, which owes a net $436 billion to foreigners, and is perched a rung above Italy on the sovereign ratings ladder, according to Moody's Investors Services. The 10-year Indian rupee bonds offer 6.4%, versus 1.5% in euros on the Italian benchmark. However, Japanese investors looking to lock in returns in yen will get 1.6% yield pickup in Italy, while they'll lose money on the Indian bond." The world has become "flat and slow". wrote Ruchir Sharma. After the crisis in 2008, governments erected barriers and central banks provided easy money which "propped up inefficient companies and gave big companies favorable access to cheap credit, encouraging them to grow even bigger". "Zombies now account for 12% of companies listed on stock exchanges in advanced economies and 16% in the United States, up from 2% in the 1980s." So, what about India? "Despite stagnant incomes and increased joblessness, Indians are hopeful about the economy's future," wrote Mahesh Vyas of the Center for Monitoring Indian Economy. We are optimistic and have 17 colleges of astrology. We have the cosmos in our favor.

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