Wednesday, August 21, 2019

From a fat midget to a lean giant, is it possible?

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) "has started worrying about benign inflation, which has remained low for a long time now within RBI's comfort zone, allowing it to bring down policy rates". In its last meeting the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) "suggested that the significant moderation in retail inflation was actually reflecting softening of demand in the economy". This is bad because it shows that, "India is now in the third growth recession since 2008. Economic growth has already slowed sequentially for four consecutive quarters," wrote N Rajadhyaksha. The economy is still growing, but not as fast as the government would like. The US economy is projected to grow 2% in 2019, "Japan has rarely grown faster than 1%" since the global financial crisis of 2008, and, "Europe has struggled to sustain growth faster than 1.5%," wrote Ruchir Sharma. The reason for lower economic growth is that populations in these countries are not growing any more. "When populations are growing slowly, the economy doesn't need to grow as fast to keep incomes high." "Slower growth in the working age population also means less competition for jobs, which explains why unemployment is at record lows not only in the United States but also in Germany and Japan." It does not apply to India because, "Around 2027, India is projected to overtake China as the world's most populous country, says the latest report released by the United Nations." With such a humongous population "India needs to grow at 9-10 percent for the next three decades for lifting millions of people out of poverty," said Niti Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant. "The country will need to grow by 9 percent every year for five years continuously and raise aggregate investment rate to 38% of GDP to achieve Prime Minister Narendra Modi's vision of turning India into a USD 5 trillion economy, EY has said." Forget 9%, "India's economic growth is set to slow further in the April-June quarter of this year to 5.7% amid contraction in consumption, weak investments and an underperforming service sector, says a Nomura report." Despite low economic growth "confidence surveys suggest Americans are content with record low unemployment, benign inflation and 1.4% growth in GDP per capita". The per capita GDP in the US was $59,484 in 2017, so a 1.4% growth is nearly $8,000, around 4 times India's GDP per capita at $2,041 in March 2019. Like the US, India's economy is dependent on domestic demand, but unlike the US, consumer confidence is falling in India. Without blistering growth unemployment will only rise from record levels today as the population grows. That is why Americans are happy with 2% growth, while there is panic with over 5% in India. Still, Indians die to go to the US.  

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