Friday, August 09, 2019

Money is a weapon, hence the currency war.

Couple of weeks back the US Federal Reserve cut its Funds rate by 25 basis points to 2-2.25%. US stocks fell sharply after the rate cut, the S&P 500 closing down 1.09% for the day. "US President Donald Trump called on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by a full percentage point, saying the nation's economy was being 'handcuffed' by the US central bank's policy." One percentage point is 100 basis points. Trump wants interest rates lower to weaken the dollar in response to China allowing its currency the yuan to fall below 7 to the dollar. A weaker currency makes Chinese goods cheaper which will increase exports to the US, thus neutralizing tariffs on Chinese goods and maintaining the huge trade imbalance between the US and China. Low interest rate is expected to help American companies to borrow cheaply to set up businesses within the US but "we should fear easy money", wrote Ruchir Sharma. Because, "with credit already dirt cheap, more cuts could bring on the kind of debt fueled market collapse that preceded the downturn not only in Japan in 1990, but in Asia after 1998 and across the world after 2008." If it is so dangerous why do politicians clamor for low rates? "Economists now dread deflation. For centuries, deflation was a common and mostly benign phenomenon, with prices falling because of of technological innovations that lowered the cost of producing and distributing goods. But the crippling downward price spiral of the 1930s and the more recent experience of Japan have given the word its scary connotation." On his visit to China Marco Polo first experienced paper money. "One of the things that astonished him most, however, was a new invention, implemented by Kublai Khan, a grandson of the great conqueror Genghis. It was paper money, introduced by Kublai in 1260." And, "if you didn't use it -- if you wouldn't accept it in payment, or preferred to use gold or silver or copper or iron bars or any of the older form of payment prevalent in China -- he would have you killed." China has not changed much since Kublai Khan. Naturally, monarchs used money to loot their people. "The creation of a single national currency simultaneously consolidated the power of nation states and the modern market," wrote R Bakshi. In early 20th century, regional currencies were created by communities but "as soon as community currency became notable in scale, spread, and efficiency, it was outlawed because it was perceived as a challenge to both the state and banks." Cryptocurrencies are a new invention but India has banned them and proposes jail sentences of up to 10 years for anyone using them. Money is a weapon of control. That is why we are seeing a currency war.

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