Thursday, August 22, 2019

How to stimulate without stimulant?

"Indian markets fell for a third straight day on Thursday, amid weak global cues, lack of clarity over taxation of foreign portfolio investors (FPI) and the prolonged wait for a fiscal stimulus,"wrote N Sultana. Taxes on the rich in India jumped in this year's Budget. Apparently, FPIs are registered as Association of Persons (AOP) and are treated as individuals for taxation purposes so the new surcharge applies to them as well. Foreign investors have the whole world to invest in, so they will move their money to markets where their profits will be higher. "Having lost the fiscal plot, bureaucrats are trying to marshal resources by squeezing taxpayers, foreign investors, firms planning buybacks and even the central banks. Such overreach never ends well," wrote A Mukherjee. Bureaucrats cannot agree on what needs to be done. Vice Chairman of Niti Aayog Rajiv Kumar wants "extraordinary steps to deal with the unprecedented stress in the country's financial sector, which is the key reason for the growth slowdown", but the Chief Economic Adviser K Subramanian believes that using taxpayer money to bailout industries creates a "moral hazard". Erstwhile finance secretary SC Garg, the man responsible for the mess, thinks that easier credit to the private sector is better than "fiscal stimulus". The reason why a fiscal stimulus, which means increased government spending, is impossible, is because, "India is facing a silent crisis owing to a shortfall in tax revenues, and the government's budget suggests it may have grossly underestimated the problem," wrote A Chaudhary. A report by the Comptroller and Auditor General says that the government disguised the actual fiscal deficit in 2017-18 by borrowing from "off-budget" sources. It was 5.85% and not 3.46% as shown in the budget. "The analysis also shows that the top 5% of effective taxpayers in the country, equivalent to 0.1% of the country's population, contribute nearly three-fifths of India's income tax collections," wrote N Kwatra. If the rich are squeezed too hard they may leave India for other countries where they will enjoy greater peace. Business leaders in India have been optimistic about the economy and their own prospects for years while there were clear signs of slowdown in the economy, wrote S Khanna. Credit growth peaked in 2010-11 and has been falling ever since, while gross fixed capital formation, a sign of new investments, peaked in 2007. Sales of motorbikes, alcohol, underwear and even biscuits are falling which means people are not earning enough. If people don't earn they cannot pay income tax, and if they do not spend the government cannot collect sales tax. If FPIs sell out the rupee will fall which will see a jump in the price of domestic fuel on which the government is collecting huge taxes. The rupee is propped up by carry trades and if the interest rate drops too low this will stop, further weakening the currency. How to stimulate if there is no stimulant?

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