Friday, June 15, 2018

Why has the world gone mad?

President Donald Trump has levied 25% tariffs on 800 products from China worth $34 billion. China has promised to retaliate by imposing tariffs on 659 US goods worth $50 billion, including marine, auto and agricultural products, aiming to hit those people who voted for Trump. China must feel that it has the upper hand because Trump has to stand for reelection on 2020 whereas Xi Jinping has been confirmed president for life. Trump's opponents may be able to unseat him as costs go up in the US but Xi's opponents will never dare to speak out. Trump faces abuse everyday in the US, a lot of which is based on selective bits of news stories, and has responded to his critics in kind and is more popular among Republican voters than Ronald Reagan was after 500 days in office. The first amendment of the US Constitution, which guarantees free speech, protects both Trump and his opponents. Xi Jinping maybe emperor for life but feels so insecure that Chinese censors banned the letter 'N' and the cartoon character Winnie the Pooh. Why? Because Trump can only lose an election but Xi will surely be in prison, and may even lose his life, if he loses power, because of the enemies he has made in his hunger for absolute power. That is why he has to hang on to his post for life. It is natural that those making money from China trade will oppose any restrictions. US multinationals were manufacturing in China and importing those products into the US but avoided paying taxes by keeping money offshore. Changes in tax rules reducing corporate tax in the US to 21% from 35% means that they have no excuse for not manufacturing in the US and are angry at having to pay taxes on overseas earnings. "Trump's tariffs on Chinese products won't work," wrote Prof Ka Zeng. Because China will retaliate, because consumer products in the US will become more expensive hitting poor people and because US companies will lobby against tariffs as their profits will be hit. The US will lose a trade war with China because China will engineer a boycott of American goods as it did so successfully with Japan, wrote M Schuman. That is China's secret weapon. Japan is tiny and has a small trade deficit with China, while the US had a deficit of $375 billion last year. US tariffs will push Europe towards China, wrote F Giugliano. Europe also had a trade deficit of $178 billion with China while it had a trade surplus of $151 billion with the US last year. So, they are making a profit with the US and a loss with China but they will prefer China. The world must be going mad. What about India? We are going to increase customs duty on 30 US products. But customs duty was already increased to 20-50% in this year's budget so how can we take a moral high ground? The world has definitely gone mad.

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