Wednesday, June 27, 2018

How to splurge if piggybank empty?

"With general elections less than a year away, and the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition appearing more vulnerable than before, concerns about possible fiscal slippages have begun mounting," wrote N Kwatra. "An analysis of historical data suggests that such concerns are not without basis. Most Union governments have resorted to fiscal expansion in the year ahead of general elections, the data shows." "To illustrate, in the last four elections, the only time that an incumbent government came to power was the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2009, a year in which the government increased spending significantly." "It had waived off farm loans, expanded social security schemes under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), and implemented revised salaries for central public servants as per recommendations of the Sixth pay Commission." The Prime Minister's party the BJP won elections in UP by promising farm loan waiver. Naturally farmers from other states ruled by the BJP are also demanding loan waivers. At least 5 farmers were shot dead by the police in Madhya Pradesh when demanding loan waiver and higher prices for crops. The total cost could exceed Rs 2.5 trillion, By contrast, the scheme cost Rs 716 billion in 2008 during UPA government. The government has already shelled out 23.55% hike in salaries for public sector employees. House rent allowance was increased by up to 157%. All this was done when the price of crude oil was plunging from $110 per barrel in 2014 to $30 per barrel in 2015. After a recent meeting of OPEC, which decided to increase output by up to 1 million barrels per day, the price of oil jumped to over $75 a barrel. The rupee has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar, at over 69 to one dollar. Is India suffering from the Dutch disease, asked SZ Chinoy. In the 1960s, discovery of natural gas in the North Sea led to an economic boom in the Netherlands, leading to a hardening of its currency which led to a fall in manufacturing as its products became more expensive. India also enjoyed windfall gains from low oil prices and low interest rates in Europe and the US which led to an influx of money in our stocks and bonds. The strong rupee kept imports cheap which kept retail inflation in check. Money is beginning to flow out of emerging markets which is causing currencies to fall, especially in countries like India which have both fiscal and current account deficits, wrote J Aziz. Now is not the time for increased spending. The Reserve Bank increased interest rate for the first time in the life of this government, citing danger of inflation. Can't splurge if the money has been spent already. 

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