Sunday, June 10, 2018

At sixes and sevens?

The G7 summit in Canada ended in disarray after Donald Trump refused to endorse the joint communique at the end. After Trump left, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, "Canadians, we're polite, we're reasonable but we also will not be pushed around." To which Trump tweeted that Trudeau is "Very dishonest and weak" and asked his officials to withdraw from the communique. This left others scrambling and an anonymous European official said, "We stick to the communique as agreed by all participants." Tensions have been high for some time ever since Trump imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Europe and Canada. Trump invoked US national security to impose those tariffs which Trudeau found "insulting" because Canada is a friend of the US. "You say the US President doesn't care at all. Maybe, but nobody is forever," said Emmanuel Macron before the conference. "Maybe the American president doesn't care being isolated today, but we don't mind being six, if needs be." Prescient, because that is what has happened. Trump had annoyed other participants, especially Britain, by saying that Russia, which was thrown out for annexing Crimea, should be invited back. Trump has many enemies at home who would love to impeach him. With midterm elections due in November talk of impeachment fires up his supporters. The Democrats had hoped to win the House and a Senate majority easily in November but opinion polls show that it is not going to be a walkover. With over 18 point lead in opinion polls people were predicting a blue wave in midterm polls but now it is more like 50-50. The Senate appears to be more daunting as 26 Democrats are up for reelection, compared to just 9 Republicans, so the chances of losing seats are much higher for the Democrats. Democrats need just two seats to flip the Senate but are vulnerable in 10 seats they hold at present. Contrary to expectations Trump has not destructed himself and his popularity rating is steady above 40%, even if his unpopularity rating is much higher. The economy is doing nicely, unemployment was down to 3.8% in May, and a major tax bill was passed by the Republicans. He has imposed trade tariffs on other nations, as he said he would, and hopes of him committing a "monumental blunder" has not materialised. James Comey is being seen as the sleazeball that he is. Trump is to meet Kim Jong un shortly and, as long as he does not make any major concession, he can claim victory. World leaders had become comfortable in their power, Trump is a challenge they don't know how to face. We needed a shakeup. Let's see how they fall.

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