Monday, June 11, 2018

Hope we won't be suffocated by 'arms-around' capitalism.

"The crisis of 2008 is supposed to have heralded an end to the dominance of capital of labour," wrote VA Nageswaran.' "In fact, things have become worse for the working class. It is a triple whammy for them now." Prof R Rajan said recently that "the physical distance between a bank branch and its clients has been rising over time".  In the UK, banks are shutting 10 branches per week to save money and increase profits, regardless of the inconvenience to customers. By forcing customers online banks are making them vulnerable to fraudsters and then refusing to compensate their losses. Recently, the State Bank of India refused to compensate a customer when its ATM machine deducted Rs 25,000 from her account without dispensing the cash. Because her husband was using her card while she was having a baby. The first whammy is that workers are now in "bullshit" jobs which they do not find meaningful and which make no difference to the world. The second whammy is that even these "bullshit" jobs are being "contracted" out. In the US it is called "alternative work arrangements" while in India it has been labeled "fixed term employment". This will be applicable to all industries and "no notice of termination of employment shall be necessary in the case of temporary and badli workmen". 'Badli' means 'substitute'. "The third whammy that is still coming is the introduction of technology that renders workers redundant or expects them to constantly upgrade themselves with no guarantee of rewards in the end." Instead of "arms-length" capitalism we need "arms-around" capitalism, which will be about "moderating greed and sticking to familiar and less risky avenues to grow". Central banks have reduced risk to capital by keeping interest rates extremely low, allowing share buybacks and speculative transactions by private equity firms. Low interest rates have encouraged reckless borrowing by governments and businesses so that global debt has reached 225% of global GDP. As US interest rate rises businesses will face difficulties in servicing their debts, and governments will not have the money to cushion their economies with higher spending if there is another financial crisis. Emerging markets are in particular danger as their debt has ballooned from $4.47 trillion in 2008 to $8.25 trillion in 2017. India is different in that it is the fastest growing major economy but we have 10% capitalism, so that the majority of our people stay economically stagnant. A person's income today depends on how far his/her parents studied. Middle class parents ensure their children always have a head start in life. Technology will make this gulf wider. Expect trouble.

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