Saturday, June 30, 2018

A loss can be a victory in the long term.

"The Chinese government has carved out an alternative internet universe with its own brands, rules and culture, in which privacy doesn't exist," wrote R Sharma. "But its real ambition is to break out of this parallel universe and dominate not just the internet but the technology industry worldwide. To contain Beijing, the United States and its allies are fighting back with a campaign of techno-protectionism, opening a perilous new front in the global trade battles." "While about 20% of per capita gross domestic product growth is driven by labour and capital, the remaining 80% is determined by how rapidly an economy is developing and applying new technology to increase production." China has created huge internet companies at home and is "catching up illegitimately, by forcing companies that invest in China to share their best technology, or dispatching hackers to steal it". "Last week's $514 billion equity loss was a case in point. It erased wealth equivalent to Belgium's gross domestic product (GDP)," wrote W Pesek about China. "It's also a microcosm of what's afoot in Asia's biggest economy, and why global markets should worry." "No industrializing economy has avoided a crash. Not America, nor Britain nor Japan nor the eurozone has steered clear of this inevitability." China is in danger because it "has three obvious bubbles that are increasingly feeding one another: borrowing, credit and property". Xi Jinping has crowned himself president for life which gives him unlimited power to reform the economy. But how far he can go while "protecting the root of all financial evil: a 6.5% growth target" remains to be seen, wrote Pesek. So far China has progressed by massive cheating on trade and suppressing dissent at home. In democratic countries irate voters respond by voting to "throw the bums out", but that is not possible in authoritarian countries like Turkey, Russia and, especially, China. "An authoritarian regime has no such automatic adjustment mechanism. Autocratic leaders will not give up power easily, and may choose, in their wisdom, to double down on failed policies. There is no orderly way of compelling them to do otherwise," wrote Prof B Eichengreen. Strong economic reforms may cause the growth rate to drop or may even cause a recession. China has to maintain a huge defence spending to support its aggression against its neighbors. It is occupying territory in other countries by giving them loans which they cannot repay. If there is an economic crisis because of trade war China could implode. "So far stocks have been hit harder in China than in the US, but there will be no winner," wrote R Sharma. Economists count money and think that everyone is losing from a trade war, but, in life, a small loss is a victory if your adversary is knocked out. That should be the goal.

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