Thursday, June 14, 2018

Since the US decides our economy isn't it better to be there?

Wholesale prices increased by 4.43% in May compared to 3.18% in April. "Inflation has been driven by an increase across all broad segments (primary articles, fuel and power and manufactured products) during the month," said M Sabnavis. Fuel and power prices climbed by 11.2%. The price of crude oil has climbed to nearly $70 a barrel, on top of which the Center and states are cooperatively taxing petrol at 100%, although prices have been shaved by extremely fine slices recently, probably to silence criticism. Naturally, retail inflation is bound to follow if commodity prices are hardening, rising to 4.87% in May compared to 4.58% in April. Quickening inflation rates are being blamed on rising food and fuel prices, but this does not explain the rise in core inflation, which ignores food and fuel, to 6.17%, highest in 45 months. A survey by the Reserve Bank, RBI, showed that people had already anticipated these results although they tend to overestimate the levels. 82.3% of households expect retail inflation to rise by 90 basis in 3 months, and 91.1% feel that inflation rate will be higher by 130 basis points in one year's time. The cost of our basket of crude surged from $66 to $74 a barrel. Oil has to be paid in dollars so our current account deficit, CAD, rose to $49 billion which is 1.9% of GDP. Our non-oil imports rose to $361 billion in the last financial year, resulting in a net deficit of $89 billion. Higher outflow of foreign exchange has weakened the rupee by 5% this year, the highest among emerging markets. A weaker rupee makes all imports more expensive which is reflected in prices that consumers pay. Earlier this month the RBI increased interest rate by 25 basis points, for the first time since this government came to power. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for the hike surprising experts. It cited higher core inflation for its action, though its bias is neutral for the future. Following the RBI's actions the US Federal Reserve also raised rates by 25 basis points and hinted at two more rises this year. Foreign investors have sold $4 billion of our stocks and bonds this year which puts pressure on the rupee as they take money away from here. The softening rupee is supposed to be good for exports as our goods and services get cheaper. Unfortunately, the US is increasing tariffs on its imports at this time. More worrying for India is that the Federal Reserve is reducing its balance sheet while the US government is borrowing more to finance its tax cuts. That is draining dollars out of emerging markets. Yields on government bonds rose to 8% which will increase borrowing costs for our government. We are so similar to the US. They say "In God We Trust" and we say "Bhagwan Bharose", which means "God alone knows". No wonder every Indian wants to go to the US.

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