Wednesday, June 06, 2018

Is it possible for governments to give up their advantages?

As a trade war between the US and its trading partners becomes more possible, "calls to defend multilateralism from a resurgent nationalism, be it Jeremy Corbyn on the left in Britain or Victor Orban on the right in Hungary, have become standard fare in recent days," wrote DR Kanth. "The response has been to double down on support for 'free trade'. "What is not acknowledged, however, is that the multilateral order of today is completely different from the managed globalization established at the end of World War II. That order was to guarantee full employment and social security in the North and deliver industrial development and increased productive investment in the South." That was the Havana Charter which was signed in 1948 promising open markets, long term capital flows and increased rights for workers, wrote R Kozul-Wright. Instead, what we have is "a rules-based system designed to liberate big business and prevent governments, in both the North and South, from interfering with its 'right' to make profits when, how and where it pleases." Rich countries passed an Investor-state Dispute Settlement (ISDS) in the 1960s which allows a company to sue a government if it passes laws causing losses to the company. It is one thing when Philip Morris sued the Australian government's action against smoking and Vattenfall sued Germany over its decision to do away with nuclear power, it is quite another when a Canadian gold mining company sues tiny El Salvador for the right to poison its water supply. The Vodafone case in India is not the same because it won its appeal against a retrospective tax demand of Rs 110 billion in our Supreme Court and has been allowed to go for international arbitration by the apex court. The hearing will start in February 2019. Some in the government say that India will not accept rulings of international arbitrators but that may invite reprisals from the British government. Kanth blames Cecilia Malmstrom, the EU's trade commissioner, who is "finding new ways to 'trickle down' the gains from increased trade" to "salvage the global order". On the other hand she is apparently "seeking to limit the scope of ISDS provisions" in negotiations with US in the Transatlantic trade negotiations. The victory of Eurosceptic parties in elections in Italy in March "has focused investors' minds like few other events this year", wrote Prof N Roubini and B Rosa. Although Italians would want to retain the Euro for the time being "for fear of a run on Italian banks and public debt, as Greece experienced in 2012-2015" they may find it easier to ditch the Euro "in the midst of another global financial crisis,recession, or asymmetric shock that pushes several fragile countries out of the euro at the same time". India has gained from cheap money from abroad but may suffer badly if flows reverse suddenly, wrote R Singhal. Governments are elected to serve their own people. It is not hyper nationalism.

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