Wednesday, June 13, 2018

Strength could be a weakness.

"Two successive US administrations -- Barack Obama's and now Donald Trump's -- have failed to push back credibly against China's expansionism in the South China Sea, which has accelerated despite a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling invalidating its territorial claims there," wrote Prof B Chellaney. "Instead, the US has relied on rhetoric and symbolic actions." Philippines brought the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration and won but China reacted with fury, as is its wont. Former President of Philippines, Benigno Aquino compared China to Nazi Germany. The state controlled Global Times called the US and Japan "eunuchs" and "paper tigers". Couple of days back Donald Trump met Kim Jong-un in Singapore, the first meeting between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader. Trump's supporters see the meeting as a success, after  North Korea has repeatedly broken its promises to give up its nuclear weapons in return for economic aid. Others say that Trump conceded too much for nothing but vague promises in return, which Kim has no intention of keeping anyway. "The star of the show in Singapore was undoubtedly Kim. He successfully demonstrated to the world that nuclear weapons can be used to achieve multiple objectives," wrote an editorial in the Mint. India is also a nuclear power but we don't seem to be getting much respect from Trump who has ordered a review of Generalised System of Preferences under which India's exports to the US attract low tariffs, wrote S Sirohi. The gorilla in the room was of course China which is the only friend of North Korea. China has been using North Korea as its human shield between its borders and that of South Korea, with more than 20,000 US troops stationed there. 90% of North Korean trade goes through China which also helps with food and fuel aid. Exact information about the North Korean economy is scarce but a large part of the population is thought to be undernourished. Why? China is the second richest economy in the world and is known as the 'world's factory'. It could easily have shifted some manufacturing into North Korea and made it part of the global supply chain. Instead, South Korea established the Kaesong Industrial Region in the North employing 53,000 North Koreans. Clearly, China wants North Korea to remain impoverished so that the Kim dynasty can retain absolute power. "Unfortunately, when it comes to constraining China's expansionism, Trump seems just as clueless as his predecessor," wrote Chellaney. China's strength is in trade which it is trying to secure through its Belt Road Initiative. If Trump imposes serious tariffs on Chinese goods he could do serious damage to its economy and that may cause China to implode. It may yet happen.

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