A loss can be a victory in the long term.

"The Chinese government has carved out an alternative internet universe with its own brands, rules and culture, in which privacy doesn't exist," wrote R Sharma. "But its real ambition is to break out of this parallel universe and dominate not just the internet but the technology industry worldwide. To contain Beijing, the United States and its allies are fighting back with a campaign of techno-protectionism, opening a perilous new front in the global trade battles." "While about 20% of per capita gross domestic product growth is driven by labour and capital, the remaining 80% is determined by how rapidly an economy is developing and applying new technology to increase production." China has created huge internet companies at home and is "catching up illegitimately, by forcing companies that invest in China to share their best technology, or dispatching hackers to steal it". "Last week's $514 billion equity loss was a case in point. It erased wealth equivalent to Belgium's gross domestic product (GDP)," wrote W Pesek about China. "It's also a microcosm of what's afoot in Asia's biggest economy, and why global markets should worry." "No industrializing economy has avoided a crash. Not America, nor Britain nor Japan nor the eurozone has steered clear of this inevitability." China is in danger because it "has three obvious bubbles that are increasingly feeding one another: borrowing, credit and property". Xi Jinping has crowned himself president for life which gives him unlimited power to reform the economy. But how far he can go while "protecting the root of all financial evil: a 6.5% growth target" remains to be seen, wrote Pesek. So far China has progressed by massive cheating on trade and suppressing dissent at home. In democratic countries irate voters respond by voting to "throw the bums out", but that is not possible in authoritarian countries like Turkey, Russia and, especially, China. "An authoritarian regime has no such automatic adjustment mechanism. Autocratic leaders will not give up power easily, and may choose, in their wisdom, to double down on failed policies. There is no orderly way of compelling them to do otherwise," wrote Prof B Eichengreen. Strong economic reforms may cause the growth rate to drop or may even cause a recession. China has to maintain a huge defence spending to support its aggression against its neighbors. It is occupying territory in other countries by giving them loans which they cannot repay. If there is an economic crisis because of trade war China could implode. "So far stocks have been hit harder in China than in the US, but there will be no winner," wrote R Sharma. Economists count money and think that everyone is losing from a trade war, but, in life, a small loss is a victory if your adversary is knocked out. That should be the goal.

Not for a family, just one person.

On the 43rd anniversary of Emergency declared by Indira Gandhi in 1975, people still remember that as the darkest period in India's history after independence. "In the lust for power and the mad devotion to a family, the entire country had been turned into a jail. An atmosphere of fear prevailed then. We will rarely find another example of how the Constitution was misused as a tool for a family," said Prime Minister Narendra Modi. To that, Sitaram Yechury, General Secretary of the CPI(M) retorted, "History also records two servile letters of the RSS chief pledging support to Indira Gandhi's 20 point programme and pleading release." The Prime Minister has been a member of the RSS or Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh since he was a child. Modi is more Indira than like Jawaharlal Nehru, wrote S Gupta. While "he hasn't nationalised any sector", "He is simply getting one public sector company to acquire another, thereby using these as his off-balance sheet milch cows." He is forcing the Life Insurance Corporation of India, LIC to buy a stake in a failed bank IDBI for Rs 200 billion. IDBI has bad loans of $8 billion, which is 28% of its total loans, and this could rise to 36%, wrote A Mukherjee. To waste life insurance premiums of millions of people the government is forcing three regulators to break their rules: IRDAI, the insurance sector regulator, SEBI, the stock marker regulator and the Reserve Bank of India, which regulates banks. Not much different from Indira Gandhi who corrupted the Supreme Court. Foreign policy has been reduced to serial hugging of other leaders which is extremely embarrassing for the rest of us. "Our big-power ties are wobbly. Our neighbourhood is stressed again and we are left with just one friend: Bangladesh." The Prime Minister's party, the BJP, is suspicious of advances in science unlike its founders who advised using technology to grow economically and militarily strong, wrote Prof R Sagar. The British created a system to increase their power and to extort enormous amounts of money from our economy, wrote RS Kapoor. Our politicians have not changed the system, instead they have added welfare schemes on it. If the welfare schemes are not reaching their desired targets they started a biometric identity system, Aadhaar. Other nations take fingerprints and iris scans of foreigners but not their own citizens, wrote M Choudhary. "Any compromise of such a database is essentially irreversible for a whole human lifetime: no one can change their genetic data or fingerprints in response to a leak." Clearly, this has been done with wholesale surveillance in mind. And, we the taxpayer paid for it. Indira Gandhi never went so far.

How to splurge if piggybank empty?

"With general elections less than a year away, and the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) coalition appearing more vulnerable than before, concerns about possible fiscal slippages have begun mounting," wrote N Kwatra. "An analysis of historical data suggests that such concerns are not without basis. Most Union governments have resorted to fiscal expansion in the year ahead of general elections, the data shows." "To illustrate, in the last four elections, the only time that an incumbent government came to power was the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) in 2009, a year in which the government increased spending significantly." "It had waived off farm loans, expanded social security schemes under the National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (NREGA), and implemented revised salaries for central public servants as per recommendations of the Sixth pay Commission." The Prime Minister's party the BJP won elections in UP by promising farm loan waiver. Naturally farmers from other states ruled by the BJP are also demanding loan waivers. At least 5 farmers were shot dead by the police in Madhya Pradesh when demanding loan waiver and higher prices for crops. The total cost could exceed Rs 2.5 trillion, By contrast, the scheme cost Rs 716 billion in 2008 during UPA government. The government has already shelled out 23.55% hike in salaries for public sector employees. House rent allowance was increased by up to 157%. All this was done when the price of crude oil was plunging from $110 per barrel in 2014 to $30 per barrel in 2015. After a recent meeting of OPEC, which decided to increase output by up to 1 million barrels per day, the price of oil jumped to over $75 a barrel. The rupee has fallen to its lowest level against the dollar, at over 69 to one dollar. Is India suffering from the Dutch disease, asked SZ Chinoy. In the 1960s, discovery of natural gas in the North Sea led to an economic boom in the Netherlands, leading to a hardening of its currency which led to a fall in manufacturing as its products became more expensive. India also enjoyed windfall gains from low oil prices and low interest rates in Europe and the US which led to an influx of money in our stocks and bonds. The strong rupee kept imports cheap which kept retail inflation in check. Money is beginning to flow out of emerging markets which is causing currencies to fall, especially in countries like India which have both fiscal and current account deficits, wrote J Aziz. Now is not the time for increased spending. The Reserve Bank increased interest rate for the first time in the life of this government, citing danger of inflation. Can't splurge if the money has been spent already. 

How long before Europe falls apart?

"A beleaguered Europe is facing an hour of trial," wrote VA Nageswaran. "Europe's commitment to internationalism, to an extent, was genuine and that was partly because of its own history of conflict and conquest. Spurred by a guilty conscience, it had sought to erase its past by being accommodative. However, it may have overdone it and many European nations have turned appeasers too." Migration from Africa is causing tempers to fray with Italy and France exchanging insults. Memories of hyperinflation in Germany, which gave rise to the Third Reich, has made it intolerant of any fiscal imprudence. "Not every country in the world can run trade, current account and fiscal surpluses. That is economically impossible. Germany managed to bend Greece to accept such impossible conditions but it probably sowed the seeds for Italians to elect a government that is leery of the Euro project." "In terms of economic strength the eurozone looks brittle." "Globalization, in reality, was transfer of wealth from the workers of advanced nations to capital owners in advanced nations intermediated by the workers of developing countries." The new leaders of Europe are much younger than their predecessors, wrote T Raphael. "The voter sentiment that's lifting the new generation of European politicians to the top is often agnostic of ideological divisions and focused on expectations of change, experiments, different ways of government. It may be interpreted as rejection of wisdom, professionalism and expertise, but it can also be seen as a protest against business as usual, which in many European countries means cronyism and indifference to voters' core interests." Angela Merkel's intransigence and refusal to accept the need for change has led to these problems for Europe, wrote Prof Y Varoufakis. Italians do not want to leave the euro but it might happen anyway, wrote Prof N Roubini and B Rosa. Having a common currency means loss of monetary sovereignty and, "The loss of monetary sovereignty means there are effectively two chains of political command in Italy. One extends from the German government, through the European commission and the ECB, down to the Italian presidency, treasury, and central bank. The other chain of command starts with the Italian prime minister and extends through the government ministries that are responsible for domestic affairs." Not a very stable situation. Eurozone countries like Ireland are actively helping US tech companies to avoid paying taxes in Europe. What will World War III look like? Thankfully we don't know. 

Dangers of smartphones with unsmart education.

"Haryana is India's richest state by per capita incomes." "National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB) data shows in 2016, Haryana registered one gang rape every two days. The number of rapes was at 1,187 -- which is more than three a day," wrote S Dhingra. Why? "With some of the worst sex ratios in the country, a deep-rooted system of khap panchayat and innumerable honour killings, Haryana has never been known for its gender sensitivity or equality." The normal sex ratio at birth is 105 boys for every 100 girls, according to the World Health Organization, WHO. In India, for some unknown reason, we count the number of girls for every 1,000 boys. As per WHO figures, there should be 952 girls per 1,000 boys at birth, but, except for Kerala, Odisha and West Bengal, all states are well below that level. Haryana has the lowest ratio in India, at 831 girls for every 1,000 boys. What is particularly disgusting is the attitudes of men in Haryana. "With more girls venturing out of their homes for education, work and sport, developing friendships with boys, and seeking to assert themselves, a new trend of 'use and throw' seemed to have emerged," said J Sangwan, state vice-president of the All India Democratic Women's Association. "There is also desire at a certain age, but since marriages are still largely determined by considerations of caste endogamy, village exogamy, etc. men look at these women as objects of fun with no intention of marrying them." Which means marriage has to be in the same caste but outside the village, possibly to prevent consanguinity. Haryana has the highest unemployment ratio in India at 15.1%. "They are not always uneducated.... a lot of them are engineers who were promised the moon by private colleges that mushroomed across the state, but didn't get packages of more than Rs 15,000-18,000." Unemployed, with a third rate degree and no prospect of getting married due to the perverted sex ratio young men spend time watching pornography on cheap smartphones. Add alcohol and drugs and it is a terrifying mix. Being next to Haryana, Delhi reported the highest number of rape cases among major cities in India. Trouble is that conviction rates of crimes are very low in India. Police and the Central Bureau of Investigation could not find who killed Aarushi Talwar, a 14 year old girl found battered to death in a house locked from inside. Indians do not trust the police. Recently there has been a spate of lynchings of innocent people suspected of child snatchung. That is because thousands of children go missing every year in India and the police register only about 40% of cases. Most people will not go to the police to settle a dispute.A sick nation that cannot protect its women and children. The dead are probably better off.

Shouldn't governments be ashamed if their people migrate?

"The rules-based order that had guided much of the world since World War II has broken down," wrote N Ramachandran. A global trade war seems a possibility as "The list of products that are now subject to retaliatory tariffs reads like that of a children's game of tit for tat". This reaction is probably predictable because, "Multinational corporations and investors have increasingly shaped the agenda of international trade negotiations, resulting in global regimes that disproportionately benefit capital at the expense of labour," wrote Prof D Rodrik. Political populism is always bad but, "Economic populism, by contrast, is occasionally necessary." Diplomacy is very confusing. After the acrimonious G7 meeting which ended in Donald Trump refusing to sign a joint communique there was the historic summit between Trump and Kim Jong Un in Singapore. "Sceptics have long argued that the rules that have prevailed for seven decades were established by the US and its allies, and have, in a clever way, been 'imposed' on all other countries through a framework of post-war institutions, and have generally been framed to benefit the educated elite." The US became dominant economic power after the Bretton Woods agreement which made the US dollar the reserve currency of the world and set up the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. But, Malaysia famously ignored IMF advice during the East Asian crisis of 1997 and instituted currency control instead of austerity which turned its economy from recession to growth in a much shorter time. Immigration has become a huge issue in both Europe and the US. The new government in Italy has been turning away migrant ships unless the ships are registered in Italy. Malta has been doing the same. An angry war of words has broken out between Italy and France with Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio saying that President Macron of France is out of touch with reality. "Macron risks making his country Italy's No 1 enemy on this emergency," he said. In recent days children of illegal immigrants have been separated from their parents in US border camps. Liberals are enraged at Donald Trump, with Time printing a photograph of a crying little girl looking up at a stern Trump, which turned out to be fake. Strangely, no one is blaming the governments of the home countries of these immigrants which do not provide for their people because of corruption and incompetence so that they are forced to make such hazardous journeys. There are thousands of Indians staying illegally in the US. They spend hundreds of thousands of rupees and are taken through several countries by people smugglers. "Indian diaspora remittance remains the magic glue keeping our balance of payments in order." Not much better than begging, is it? 

Very difficult to cut what you are used to.

The Prime Minister wants the Indian economy to grow by over 10% per year, to increase our share of global exports from 1.6% to 3.4%, to reduce imports by 10% and create large number of jobs. "Through domestic manufacturing, if we reduce imports by 10 per cent, it could create in the country an increase in income worth Rs 3.5 lakh crore. It will contribute in moving the country towards double-digit GDP," he said. 'If wishes were horses beggars would ride'. Experts cautioned that we should first try to get our growth up to 8% before thinking about 10%. Former Chief Economic Adviser A Virmani tweeted, "I have heard this many times before. In fact every time growth rises above 7%, we start hearing about the chimera of double-digit growth. The reality is that we have not been able to maintain 8% growth for even a couple of (consecutive) years." Growth rate was 6.7% in the last financial year 2016-17 compared to 5.5% in 2012-13. Yet gross fixed capital formation, GFCF, which stand for private investment, and private final consumption expenditure, PFCE, which shows consumer spending, were lower last year than in 2012-13. As a percentage of GDP, exports have fallen to their lowest level in 14 years. According to a Reserve Bank of India survey, jobs shrank by 0.1% in 2015-16. Growth has been almost completely dependent on government spending but that is under strain. The government took advantage of low oil prices by massively increasing taxes on oil. Prices have gone up this year and the recent meeting of OPEC a few days ago resulted in a hardening of price despite a resolution in favor of increasing output by 1 million barrels per day. Oil is trading at near $70 a barrel. Naturally, high price of crude has pushed the price of petrol in India to near Rs 80 per liter, which will add to inflation as cost of transport goes up. The Finance Minister confessed that reducing the price of fuel will push the government into a debt trap, meaning that the fiscal deficit will go out of control. One way of raising money is to cut waste and sell off some public sector company. Air India fits the bill perfectly. It has cumulative debts of around Rs 500 billion and is losing up to Rs 50 billion per year. It has the highest ratio of staff to passengers, salaries are way too high and its managers are civil servants and so have no idea of how to run an airline. But no one dares to mention the real reason the government wants to keep such a high stake in the airline. It is because politicians have been using it as their private property. A former minister ordered a larger plane for his daughter's in-laws which meant that the plane flew half empty. The Prime Minister is also milking Air India. No private company is going to pay for these. And therein lies the nub.

The US should store data in India. We have 5 foot walls.

"Before 2008, firms on the east coast of America brought its economy to the brink of collapse. They are still at it," wrote VA Nageswaran. "Now they have been joined by firms on the west coast whose products and business practices have emerged as threats both to the economy and the society." Technology is making workers redundant: "Citigroup announced that it had planned to eliminate up to half of its 20,000 technology and operations jobs because those jobs could be automated". Silicon Valley giants have become "near-monopolies". "Monopolies invest less and innovate less" and buy up "emerging start-ups to reduce competition" which is a "misuse of productive investment to maintain monopoly rents". "Google and Microsoft did not expect that a book-retailer, Amazon, would become a competition in their highest-growth market, cloud services," wrote Prof V Wadhwa. "For that matter, the global taxi industry never imagined that a Silicon Valley start up, Uber, would become its greatest threat. Telco providers never dreamed that some smartphone applications, WhatsApp and Skype, would decimate their text and mobile revenues." As electric cars become cheaper and more capable demand for oil will fall. "Imagine the effect on Ambani's oil refineries when there is a massive shift away from fossil fuels." People are not just in danger of losing jobs. Banks in the UK have closed hundreds of branches to reduce cost and increase profits, exposing customers to internet fraud as they are forced to transact business online. Customers do not receive adequate compensation in case of fraud. Cyber attacks are becoming more sophisticated everyday and are using tools developed by national agencies which they have stolen by hacking. A major attack on global financial systems will cause damage in trillions of dollars. Recently hackers employed by the Chinese government hacked into computers of a naval contractor in the US and obtained huge amounts of highly sensitive data. There are specialists who can hack into computers used by hackers by tracing their malware, but this is illegal under US law. the Laskar-e-Taiba, which wants to destroy the Indian state, has developed a mobile phone which automatically connects to the nearest telecom tower of any service provider and immediately disconnects if any attempt is made to trace the call. Nothing can be safe from hackers. Luckily the Indian government has taken precautions to save our biometric details by storing all the data behind walls which are 5 feet thick. These are not firewalls but walls made of brick. Wonderful.

What's in a name? Lots, it seems.

"Does calling a road an 'expressway' or 'freeway' contribute to more accidents on that road? Does a programme having the prefix 'Pradhan Mantri', or a leader's name, impact citizens' behaviour towards the programme?" asked B Dominic. Why should a name matter? "That which we call a rose, by any other word would smell as sweet," wrote Shakespeare. But, "In our study of the Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY), it was found that programmes that have tags like Pradhan Mantri, or names of national leaders, are seen as conduits through which citizens will receive goodies from the government. These are never seen as programmes where the citizens are expected to contribute." That is because this government has started 18 different social schemes to distribute subsidies, in addition to the ones already in place before it came to power. Thus the sounds 'Pradhan Mantri', meaning 'prime minister', excites a kind of Pavlovian Reflex in those who are conditioned to receive handouts, like the sound of a bell would excite increased salivation in a dog who associates the sound with food. "The human brain must think with the aid of categories. Once formed, categories are the basis for normal prejudgement," wrote social psychologist, Gordon Allport. So the word 'highway' with its "multiple lanes, access-controlled environment where there are no distractions -- surely activates a mental model of a risk-free road meant for speeding". The word 'expressway' even more so. However, when Pradhan Mantri is associated with an expressway then it means a free-for-all. Thus the Prime Minister inaugurated the Eastern Peripheral Expressway at the end of May and by middle of June solar panels, batteries, iron fencing and fountains worth tens of millions of rupees had been stolen. They must have thought it is an express handout, poor fellows. The government raises hundreds of billions in taxes by specific names, such as 'education cess', R&D cess, and others which are then diverted to useless expenditure. Cess was raised in this year's budget Thus,  the government earns hundreds of billions of rupees from taxes on fuel but calls it subsidies. The Rent Control Act is meant to protect the poor form extortion by landlords but has become a means to permanently squat on a property and pay very little. The Right to Education Act was an effort to force the middle class to pay for educating children from poor families. It backfired spectacularly because state governments are having to pay for these students as well as salaries of teachers in government schools. Now the Karnataka government has ordered teachers to bring students to schools, or else. We Indians are conditioned by names.

People tolerate so long they gain.

In the 1970s there was chronic shortage of consumer goods in the Soviet Union, forcing people to queue for hours, China was recovering from a major famine, due to the Cultural Revolution unleashed by Mao Zedong and "Ethiopia was the poster country for thin, emaciated children, suffering and on the verge of death," wrote Prof T Cowen. Today, China "has built one of the world's most impressive economic growth miracles ever, with the Communist Party still firmly in power. Ethiopia is coming off of some years of double-digit economic growth and is developing its manufacturing. Yet the country is autocratic and has a history of censoring the internet. Vladimir Putin rules Russia with a firm hand, but today consumer goods of virtually all kinds are widely available and most Russians are free to leave whenever they want." Why have autocrats become softer? They have learnt from Lee Kuan Yew, the first Prime Minister of Singapore, who instituted economic reforms and made Singapore very rich, while maintaining a strict one-party rule. So, " The big innovation in authoritarian governance has been this: subsequent autocratic leaders, most of all in China, have found ways of of both liberalizing and staying in power." Liberalism was based on the inalienable right of self-ownership, wrote Prof Y Varoufakis. "You were your own property. You could lease yourself to an employer for a limited period, and for a mutually agreed price, but your property rights over yourself could not be bought or sold." Today, "many are condemned to labour under zero-hour contracts and wages so low that they must work all available hours to make ends meet" while others, "to avoid falling into this soul-destroying 'precariat', they must invest in their own brand every waking hour of every day". If they are lucky to be called for a job interview they are told, " We want you to be true to yourself, to follow your passions, even if this means we must let you go!" "So they redouble their efforts to discover 'passions'". "I, for one, only wish to live under a vibrant democracy," wrote Cowen. We all do, but social rules are changing, perhaps not for the better. So called Western democracies are being taken over by groups of vocal minorities, suppressing freedom of expression for the majority. "Liberal democracy is inherently fragile because reconciling its terms does not produce a natural political equilibrium," wrote Prof D Rodrik. We need to protect rights of minorities while respecting the wishes of the electorate. Can't be all things to all men. Or women.

Shouldn't create facts, should he?

Finance Minister of India refused demands for lowering taxes on fuel, writing, "It is intended to push India into an unmanageable debt, something which the UPA government left as its legacy. We must remember that the economy and the markets reward structural reforms, fiscal prudence and macroeconomic stability. They punish fiscal indiscipline and irresponsibility." Indeed, they do. The government missed its fiscal deficit target last year and will miss it this year again. This despite taxes of Rs 40 on a liter of petrol costing just over Rs 78 per liter. The cost has come down to over Rs 76 per liter. Prices have gone up in the US as well. It now costs an average of $3.5 for a gallon of petrol, which works out to about Rs 63 per liter, at an exchange rate of Rs 68 to one dollar. As for fiscal irresponsibility, this government has started 18 new social schemes since it came to power in May 2014. The list does not include farmers' loan waivers by various BJP states which could add a bill of Rs 2.5 trillion to government expenditure. Then there is the affordable housing scheme for subprime borrowers which could add another few trillions in bad loans to banks. Hardly examples of "fiscal prudence and macro-economically responsible behaviour". Despite a 21.18% rise in exports to $28.86 billion in May the trade deficit jumped to $14.62 billion because imports rose to $43.48 billion. Last year current account deficit, CAD, was a huge $160 billion which is 1.9% of GDP. Besides the price of oil during much of the tenure of the UPA government was near or above $100 a barrel and started dropping steeply when this government came to power, reaching a low of $30 a barrel in February 2016. Low price of oil and zero interest rates in developed economies led to an influx of foreign investment. The Federal Reserve in the US raised its Funds Rate to 1.75% a few days back and the European Central Bank is to end its bond buying program, or quantitative easing, by December. Foreign investors have sold off $4 billion worth of bonds and equities this year and the sell off could rise as inflation increases and the rupee falls. If oil had stayed at $100 a barrel India's CAD would have been 6% of GDP, wrote SZ Chinoy. The real exchange rate of the rupee was overvalued by 20% which destroyed Indian industry because of cheap imports. This is known as the Dutch disease. It is not the fault of oil and gold, wrote M Chakravarty. Our non-oil merchandise exports increased from $252 billion in 2013-14 to $266 billion in 2017-18, which is a compound annual growth rate, or CAGR, of just 1.36%, while our non-oil, non-gold imports increased from $252 billion to $319 billion, which is a CAGR of 6.07%. This increase in imports was not due to capital goods but due to consumption, which is because of a strong rupee. Jaitley is a lawyer so he can create stories. He cannot change facts.

Why are women and children sleeping outside?

"On the wee hours of Thursday, Thangamari was sleeping inside her house at Madathur in Thoothukudi with her mother-in-law and two sons -- a seven-and-a-five-year-old -- when police broke into her two-room house." "It was around 3am when a policeman entered the house by breaking open the lock and started searching for my husband. At least seven other policemen were standing outside. Even as I told them that my husband was not in the house, they opened the almirah and checked every corner of the house," recounted Thangamari. Such searches are occurring all over Thoothukudi. The police must be looking for armed terrorists or a serial killer or a dangerous drug gang? "The people of Thoothukudi, where protests against Vedanta's Sterlite Industries Ltd turned violent and 13 people were killed in police firing on 22 and 23 May, have been raising concerns over the searches by the police over the last few weeks. "In the past four days, women and children have spent their nights sleeping on the streets fearing police action" and "most of the men have fled these villages". Sterlite Industries operated a copper smelter which produced half the copper needed in India and has been blamed for polluting air and water by the locals. In 2013, the Supreme Court fined the company Rs 1 billion for pollution but allowed the company to function under supervision of government agencies. Apparently the Pollution Control Board had refused permission for the plant to continue functioning on 19 April, in which case why was the plant still operational and why were 13 protesters shot to death in deliberate police firing? The plant has been closed permanently. Why not close it before killing so many innocent people and why the night raids on local residents? Indian politicians firmly believe in the doctrine of the state having a monopoly on violence and use it liberally. Last year 34 people were shot dead in Haryana when followers of Baba Ram Rahim rioted following his conviction for rape. The government of Haryana must have known because journalists had been warning for days. The Haryana High Court was scathing, saying, "This was political surrender to lure vote banks." The BJP, the party of the Prime Minister, is in power in Haryana. "The PM is of the nation and not of the BJP. National integrity is above parties. Are we one nation or a party nation," asked the Court. Police in India are controlled by politicians and so operate as thugs for whichever party is in power. You can kill a criminal in self defense but we can have no defense against thugs in uniform. Political parties can receive any amount of money from abroad without disclosing the source. Does a foreign nation control our government? That would explain why shooting citizens is so easy.

Inequality of wealth comes from equality in greed.

"Why would economists rather talk about inefficiency than inequality?" asked N Smith. Probably because economists do not want to be caught in politics. So they look for Pareto improvement in which one person's economic condition maybe improved without harming anyone else. Unfortunately, it does not work in real life because people compete with others out of envy. A recent paper by Agarwal, Mikhed and Scholnick studied reactions of neighbors when someone won a lottery. Neighbors of those who won a big prize borrowed more and suffered more bankruptcies than neighbors of those who won small amounts. This behavior may explain how financial bubbles build up. If someone sells his house for a big profit it encourages others to buy houses, thus pushing prices up. It is also why social schemes, where the government distributes subsidies to the poor, are resented by those who do are left out of such subsidies. However, inequality is real. The top 1% of global population holds 50% of the wealth of the world while the bottom 3.5 billion share just 2.7% of global wealth. In India it is even worse, as the top 1% earned 73% of the wealth generated in the country last year. Inequality of earnings is not the same as inequality of wealth which is a result of accumulation over years, and even over generations. For instance, the top 5% of households in the US held 62.5% of all assets in 2013 but earned only 30% of total income. Inequality is already having adverse political effects around the world. "Economic insecurity is the driving force behind violent conflicts in the Middle East and the rise of fascist elements in some European countries, not least Hungary and Poland," wrote Prof K Basu. He wrote that a lot of people get wealthy due to luck. Luck determines who your parents are, what education you get and who you might meet. A World Bank study on educational mobility in India, China, Indonesia, Nigeria, Egypt and Brazil found that India has the worst mobility of all. Educational mobility depends heavily on the level of education of parents. It is not difficult to understand why. Educated parents can help children with their studies and general knowledge. Highly educated parents also tend to earn a lot more and so can afford better schools. Higher education will become even more valuable as the knowledge society evolves. However, "Under current conditions, pushing for absolute equality could erode the incentive to work, leading to widespread economic breakdown." The rich in the US suggest a Universal Basic Income wherein the government will transfer a sum of money to all households. Although there is support for such a scheme, conservatives worry that it will promote laziness, while liberals think that it will encourage employers to reduce wages. In India, those who are already benefiting from handouts will not want to give them up and will demand payments in addition to what they already get. The poor are no less greedy than the rich. We are all human after all.

Can we cope with a casino currency?

China is forcing countries to accept trade in its currency, the yuan, wrote PS Mehta. "Despite the threat of difficult debt burdens, 14 countries of eastern and southern Africa joined a forum in Harare, Zimbabwe, to consider the use of China's yuan as a reserve currency in the region. This was in recognition of the fact that most countries have availed loans from China and it may make economic sense to repay them in yuan." But perhaps, it is not a case of "despite the threat" but "because of". China gives loans to African nations at market rates of interest and it is possible that they are finding it difficult to repay the loans. These leaders have to be careful. There is widespread belief that Robert Mugabe of Zimbabwe was forced to step down by Chinese pressure. Apparently, China forced Mugabe to talk to opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai in 2008 to protect the Beijing Olympics from boycott by western countries. In 2016 the International Monetary Fund included the Chinese yuan in the basket of currencies that make up Special Drawing Rights which means that the yuan should be freely tradable. But it is not. Within 3 months China started imposing controls on capital outflows and foreign currency transactions to prevent the currency from devaluing sharply. "As long as they have the threat and reasonable expectation that in a moment of panic or crisis they would clamp down on the movement of capital so it doesn't disrupt their economy, there is no way anyone would view the RMB as a reserve currency," said J Williams, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. What of India? Our currency, the rupee accounts for just "1% of global foreign exchange turnover". Mehta thinks that India should "consider rupee internationalization integral to foreign policy strategy before it's too late". International currency transaction is around $3 trillion everyday which is more than India's annual GDP of $2.6 trillion. Financier George Soros made $1 billion dollars in one week in 1992 by short selling pound sterling and forcing the pound out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Unlike China, India always makes a loss in trade. Our exports grew by 20.18% to $28.86 billion in May, but our trade deficit grew to a four-month high of $14.62 billion, because our imports grew by 14.85% to $43.48 billion. Our current account deficit grew by 42% to $160 billion. Just increasing the level of foreign portfolio investment in our government and corporate bonds by the Reserve Bank created panic among experts. If China thinks it can conquer the globe, many have tried before. We should not try.

Why has the world gone mad?

President Donald Trump has levied 25% tariffs on 800 products from China worth $34 billion. China has promised to retaliate by imposing tariffs on 659 US goods worth $50 billion, including marine, auto and agricultural products, aiming to hit those people who voted for Trump. China must feel that it has the upper hand because Trump has to stand for reelection on 2020 whereas Xi Jinping has been confirmed president for life. Trump's opponents may be able to unseat him as costs go up in the US but Xi's opponents will never dare to speak out. Trump faces abuse everyday in the US, a lot of which is based on selective bits of news stories, and has responded to his critics in kind and is more popular among Republican voters than Ronald Reagan was after 500 days in office. The first amendment of the US Constitution, which guarantees free speech, protects both Trump and his opponents. Xi Jinping maybe emperor for life but feels so insecure that Chinese censors banned the letter 'N' and the cartoon character Winnie the Pooh. Why? Because Trump can only lose an election but Xi will surely be in prison, and may even lose his life, if he loses power, because of the enemies he has made in his hunger for absolute power. That is why he has to hang on to his post for life. It is natural that those making money from China trade will oppose any restrictions. US multinationals were manufacturing in China and importing those products into the US but avoided paying taxes by keeping money offshore. Changes in tax rules reducing corporate tax in the US to 21% from 35% means that they have no excuse for not manufacturing in the US and are angry at having to pay taxes on overseas earnings. "Trump's tariffs on Chinese products won't work," wrote Prof Ka Zeng. Because China will retaliate, because consumer products in the US will become more expensive hitting poor people and because US companies will lobby against tariffs as their profits will be hit. The US will lose a trade war with China because China will engineer a boycott of American goods as it did so successfully with Japan, wrote M Schuman. That is China's secret weapon. Japan is tiny and has a small trade deficit with China, while the US had a deficit of $375 billion last year. US tariffs will push Europe towards China, wrote F Giugliano. Europe also had a trade deficit of $178 billion with China while it had a trade surplus of $151 billion with the US last year. So, they are making a profit with the US and a loss with China but they will prefer China. The world must be going mad. What about India? We are going to increase customs duty on 30 US products. But customs duty was already increased to 20-50% in this year's budget so how can we take a moral high ground? The world has definitely gone mad.

Since the US decides our economy isn't it better to be there?

Wholesale prices increased by 4.43% in May compared to 3.18% in April. "Inflation has been driven by an increase across all broad segments (primary articles, fuel and power and manufactured products) during the month," said M Sabnavis. Fuel and power prices climbed by 11.2%. The price of crude oil has climbed to nearly $70 a barrel, on top of which the Center and states are cooperatively taxing petrol at 100%, although prices have been shaved by extremely fine slices recently, probably to silence criticism. Naturally, retail inflation is bound to follow if commodity prices are hardening, rising to 4.87% in May compared to 4.58% in April. Quickening inflation rates are being blamed on rising food and fuel prices, but this does not explain the rise in core inflation, which ignores food and fuel, to 6.17%, highest in 45 months. A survey by the Reserve Bank, RBI, showed that people had already anticipated these results although they tend to overestimate the levels. 82.3% of households expect retail inflation to rise by 90 basis in 3 months, and 91.1% feel that inflation rate will be higher by 130 basis points in one year's time. The cost of our basket of crude surged from $66 to $74 a barrel. Oil has to be paid in dollars so our current account deficit, CAD, rose to $49 billion which is 1.9% of GDP. Our non-oil imports rose to $361 billion in the last financial year, resulting in a net deficit of $89 billion. Higher outflow of foreign exchange has weakened the rupee by 5% this year, the highest among emerging markets. A weaker rupee makes all imports more expensive which is reflected in prices that consumers pay. Earlier this month the RBI increased interest rate by 25 basis points, for the first time since this government came to power. The Monetary Policy Committee voted unanimously for the hike surprising experts. It cited higher core inflation for its action, though its bias is neutral for the future. Following the RBI's actions the US Federal Reserve also raised rates by 25 basis points and hinted at two more rises this year. Foreign investors have sold $4 billion of our stocks and bonds this year which puts pressure on the rupee as they take money away from here. The softening rupee is supposed to be good for exports as our goods and services get cheaper. Unfortunately, the US is increasing tariffs on its imports at this time. More worrying for India is that the Federal Reserve is reducing its balance sheet while the US government is borrowing more to finance its tax cuts. That is draining dollars out of emerging markets. Yields on government bonds rose to 8% which will increase borrowing costs for our government. We are so similar to the US. They say "In God We Trust" and we say "Bhagwan Bharose", which means "God alone knows". No wonder every Indian wants to go to the US.

Strength could be a weakness.

"Two successive US administrations -- Barack Obama's and now Donald Trump's -- have failed to push back credibly against China's expansionism in the South China Sea, which has accelerated despite a 2016 international arbitral tribunal ruling invalidating its territorial claims there," wrote Prof B Chellaney. "Instead, the US has relied on rhetoric and symbolic actions." Philippines brought the case to the Permanent Court of Arbitration and won but China reacted with fury, as is its wont. Former President of Philippines, Benigno Aquino compared China to Nazi Germany. The state controlled Global Times called the US and Japan "eunuchs" and "paper tigers". Couple of days back Donald Trump met Kim Jong-un in Singapore, the first meeting between a sitting US president and a North Korean leader. Trump's supporters see the meeting as a success, after  North Korea has repeatedly broken its promises to give up its nuclear weapons in return for economic aid. Others say that Trump conceded too much for nothing but vague promises in return, which Kim has no intention of keeping anyway. "The star of the show in Singapore was undoubtedly Kim. He successfully demonstrated to the world that nuclear weapons can be used to achieve multiple objectives," wrote an editorial in the Mint. India is also a nuclear power but we don't seem to be getting much respect from Trump who has ordered a review of Generalised System of Preferences under which India's exports to the US attract low tariffs, wrote S Sirohi. The gorilla in the room was of course China which is the only friend of North Korea. China has been using North Korea as its human shield between its borders and that of South Korea, with more than 20,000 US troops stationed there. 90% of North Korean trade goes through China which also helps with food and fuel aid. Exact information about the North Korean economy is scarce but a large part of the population is thought to be undernourished. Why? China is the second richest economy in the world and is known as the 'world's factory'. It could easily have shifted some manufacturing into North Korea and made it part of the global supply chain. Instead, South Korea established the Kaesong Industrial Region in the North employing 53,000 North Koreans. Clearly, China wants North Korea to remain impoverished so that the Kim dynasty can retain absolute power. "Unfortunately, when it comes to constraining China's expansionism, Trump seems just as clueless as his predecessor," wrote Chellaney. China's strength is in trade which it is trying to secure through its Belt Road Initiative. If Trump imposes serious tariffs on Chinese goods he could do serious damage to its economy and that may cause China to implode. It may yet happen.

When lateral means panic.

"On Sunday, the Narendra Modi government took its first step towards fulfilling a goal it had set in 2014. That was when the Centre mooted the idea of allowing lateral entry from academia and the private sector at the joint secretary level," wrote an editorial in the Mint. Normally all top civil service posts are reserved for Indian Administrative Service, IAS, officers, which is a kind of 'closed shop', where promotion is according to length of service and "belonging to the same caste as the chief minister's base". The IAS is a continuation of the Indian Civil Service which was set up by the British to subjugate Indians. Charles Cornwallis has the honor of being known as the 'Father of Civil Service in India'. Hence the IAS still functions as a colonial force, keeping the people in check. What started out as a "steel frame" for India has transformed into a "steel cage". To be fair, "they have been employed to perverse effect by a political elite that finds a subservient bureaucracy useful". By what means? "These range from transfers to changing a post's functions to make it a de facto demotion." One year before general elections the Prime Minister has suddenly decided to recruit people to the highest posts of the civil service from outside the IAS. This has been labeled 'lateral entry'. This government has been very good to IAS officers, accepting recommendations of the Seventh Pay Commission without challenge and even allowing them to accept gifts, having forbidden them previously. Our GDP grew at 7.7% in the last quarter, making us the fastest growing major economy in the world. Which surely means that our administration has been functioning like a well oiled machine. Why this sudden necessity for lateral entry? "This is critical as the first step towards a broad-based institutionalisation of a wider and deeper talent pool focusing on specific skill-sets that fill the existing absence of talent in the government, tailored to the particular sector and enhanced by the industry-specific work experience that the lateral entry admissions will possess," said A Kant, CEO of Niti Aayog, supposedly think-tank for the government. The Ministry of External Affairs has apparently hired 12 experts as advisers but they do not have powers to make decisions, so it will most likely be a waste of time and taxpayer money. So things are not as smooth as we have been told. The total failure of attempts to sell Air India has left the government with a lot of egg on its face and the copper plant in Tuticorin has been permanently shut down reducing our copper output by half, after shooting 14 protesters to death. Time to panic?

Hope we won't be suffocated by 'arms-around' capitalism.

"The crisis of 2008 is supposed to have heralded an end to the dominance of capital of labour," wrote VA Nageswaran.' "In fact, things have become worse for the working class. It is a triple whammy for them now." Prof R Rajan said recently that "the physical distance between a bank branch and its clients has been rising over time".  In the UK, banks are shutting 10 branches per week to save money and increase profits, regardless of the inconvenience to customers. By forcing customers online banks are making them vulnerable to fraudsters and then refusing to compensate their losses. Recently, the State Bank of India refused to compensate a customer when its ATM machine deducted Rs 25,000 from her account without dispensing the cash. Because her husband was using her card while she was having a baby. The first whammy is that workers are now in "bullshit" jobs which they do not find meaningful and which make no difference to the world. The second whammy is that even these "bullshit" jobs are being "contracted" out. In the US it is called "alternative work arrangements" while in India it has been labeled "fixed term employment". This will be applicable to all industries and "no notice of termination of employment shall be necessary in the case of temporary and badli workmen". 'Badli' means 'substitute'. "The third whammy that is still coming is the introduction of technology that renders workers redundant or expects them to constantly upgrade themselves with no guarantee of rewards in the end." Instead of "arms-length" capitalism we need "arms-around" capitalism, which will be about "moderating greed and sticking to familiar and less risky avenues to grow". Central banks have reduced risk to capital by keeping interest rates extremely low, allowing share buybacks and speculative transactions by private equity firms. Low interest rates have encouraged reckless borrowing by governments and businesses so that global debt has reached 225% of global GDP. As US interest rate rises businesses will face difficulties in servicing their debts, and governments will not have the money to cushion their economies with higher spending if there is another financial crisis. Emerging markets are in particular danger as their debt has ballooned from $4.47 trillion in 2008 to $8.25 trillion in 2017. India is different in that it is the fastest growing major economy but we have 10% capitalism, so that the majority of our people stay economically stagnant. A person's income today depends on how far his/her parents studied. Middle class parents ensure their children always have a head start in life. Technology will make this gulf wider. Expect trouble.

Can people guess better than official figures?

Growth of the Indian economy rose to 7.7% in the last quarter making it the fastest growing major economy in the world. The Confederation of Indian Industry thinks that our economy is in a "sweet spot" and will grow at near 8% in the next two years. A $2.7 trillion economy growing at a scorching pace means more jobs, higher earning and more fun for everyone. However, wherever there is good news there are Cassandras. A survey by the Reserve Bank of India, RBI, in 6 major cities in India showed that people are becoming pessimistic about the future compared to 2014, when this government came to power. A net 16.1% think that the economy is worse, compared to 14.4% in 2014, and only 21.7% expect it to get better in the next one year, compared to 39.1% in 2014. In 2014, 54.9% expected the job situation to improve, compared to just 24.5% today. Naturally, when people are pessimistic about jobs growth they have less hopes of earnings growth. Only on inflation are people somewhat optimistic. Government minions try to present a rosy picture but numbers given by them are so different that it casts doubt on their veracity. The 2011 Census found that "there are 84 million literates and 33 million illiterates who are unemployed" which is why rates of crimes are so high in smaller towns, wrote Prof D Gupta. Delhi has the highest crime rate followed by Jaipur, Lucknow, Kochi and Patna, all with populations less than 3 million. Why are crime rates so high in smaller towns? "This is because it is the literate unemployed who are largely circling this territory, foraging for work and they have dreams much grander than what the unschooled can imagine. Most juvenile criminals have high school degrees. The government has started an 'Aspirational Districts Programme' covering 115 districts in Hindi states hoping to improve local administration and local infrastructure. A Tiwari is unimpressed with the growth rate. He says that growth has been entirely dependent on government expenditure, made possible by high taxes on oil, while private consumption has actually declined. If that is so why are consumption stocks, such as fast moving consumer goods and durable goods, the best performers in our markets? The government made windfall profits from taxes on oil which fell from an average of $100 per barrel in 2014 to $52 in 2015, to $44 in 2016 and $54 in 2017, wrote Prof D Nayyar. Oil prices have risen recently which will increase our current account deficit, add to headline inflation and weaken the rupee. Hence, people are pessimistic. Even if politicians are boasting about GDP.

At sixes and sevens?

The G7 summit in Canada ended in disarray after Donald Trump refused to endorse the joint communique at the end. After Trump left, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said, "Canadians, we're polite, we're reasonable but we also will not be pushed around." To which Trump tweeted that Trudeau is "Very dishonest and weak" and asked his officials to withdraw from the communique. This left others scrambling and an anonymous European official said, "We stick to the communique as agreed by all participants." Tensions have been high for some time ever since Trump imposed tariffs on imports of steel and aluminium from Europe and Canada. Trump invoked US national security to impose those tariffs which Trudeau found "insulting" because Canada is a friend of the US. "You say the US President doesn't care at all. Maybe, but nobody is forever," said Emmanuel Macron before the conference. "Maybe the American president doesn't care being isolated today, but we don't mind being six, if needs be." Prescient, because that is what has happened. Trump had annoyed other participants, especially Britain, by saying that Russia, which was thrown out for annexing Crimea, should be invited back. Trump has many enemies at home who would love to impeach him. With midterm elections due in November talk of impeachment fires up his supporters. The Democrats had hoped to win the House and a Senate majority easily in November but opinion polls show that it is not going to be a walkover. With over 18 point lead in opinion polls people were predicting a blue wave in midterm polls but now it is more like 50-50. The Senate appears to be more daunting as 26 Democrats are up for reelection, compared to just 9 Republicans, so the chances of losing seats are much higher for the Democrats. Democrats need just two seats to flip the Senate but are vulnerable in 10 seats they hold at present. Contrary to expectations Trump has not destructed himself and his popularity rating is steady above 40%, even if his unpopularity rating is much higher. The economy is doing nicely, unemployment was down to 3.8% in May, and a major tax bill was passed by the Republicans. He has imposed trade tariffs on other nations, as he said he would, and hopes of him committing a "monumental blunder" has not materialised. James Comey is being seen as the sleazeball that he is. Trump is to meet Kim Jong un shortly and, as long as he does not make any major concession, he can claim victory. World leaders had become comfortable in their power, Trump is a challenge they don't know how to face. We needed a shakeup. Let's see how they fall.

Loss is guaranteed in the dollar auction game.

"Kotak Institutional Equities has an interesting report that draws parallels between the dollar auction game and the Indian wireless sector," wrote M Philipose. "The dollar auction game was used by economist Martin Shubik, a pioneer of game theory, to illustrate a concept known as 'escalation of commitment'. Since the highest bidder wins the dollar, and the second highest bidder loses all that he/she has bid, those playing the game tend to keep bidding higher amounts to avoid losing what they have already bet." This could be the fate of our telecom companies. "Every passing day, they increase their bids to gain a higher share of the market." "In the three headed slugfest between Bharti Airtel Ltd, Reliance Jio Infocomm Ltd and Vodafone Idea combine, each entity has already spent somewhere between Rs 2 trillion and Rs 3 trillion in gross capital investment." They are hoping to drive others out of the market even though such investment is not resulting in profits. Although the number of users has risen by 61,436%, from 2 million to over one billion, overseas companies have lost a total of $23 billion. "Two many licenses, too little spectrum, high taxes and supply-constrained airwave auctions has made this a very expensive market to operate in," said C Lane, a Hong Kong based analyst. In 2008, the then government granted telecom licenses on a first come - first served basis. According to the Comptroller and Auditor General, by not auctioning licenses the country had suffered a loss of Rs 1.70 trillion. In 2012, the Supreme Court cancelled all 122 licenses as illegal, inflicting enormous losses on all companies who had invested heavily. Last December a CBI court found no evidence of wrongdoing on the part of ministers. The Supreme Court said that the licenses were illegal which means someone broke the law, a lower court finds there was nothing illegal. So, the Supreme Court does not know the law. Brilliant. There is an outstanding tax demand of Rs 110 billion, which has risen to Rs 200 billion including interest and penalties, on Vodafone, the only foreign company still left in India. The Finance Minister thinks that this retrospective tax demand was a very bad idea. Although Vodafone has repeatedly won its cases against the tax, including in our Supreme Court, this government is still hounding it. Vodafone has been permitted to appeal to an international tribunal in London for arbitration which will cost many millions in lawyers fees and court charges. Already some 75,000 jobs have been lost in telecom and if we end up with a monopoly Indians will have to pay very high charges. Is it any wonder that there is no taker for Air India when the government intends to keep 24% share? The sale of 9 national highways to Macquarie went smoothly because the company got full control. Somehow Indians always lose.

A macho rupee is a must.

For the first time in 4 years, that is during Modi's reign as prime minister, the Reserve Bank, RBI, increased interest rate by 25 basis points. India's GDP grew at 7.7% in the quarter ending in March, and the Monetary Policy Committee, MPC, predicted a growth rate of 7.5-7.6% in the first half of the present financial year and 7.3-7.4% in the second half, which would make India the fastest growing major economy in the world. The cost of our basket of crude oil has increased from $66 per barrel in April to $74 per barrel which will feed into inflation, as shown by the rise in inflation expectations. Most economists predicted that the RBI would keep rate at 6% while indicating a tightening bias, signalling a rise later in the year. But, the MPC unanimously voted for the rise because of a rise in both headline and core inflation. Volatile oil prices and Minimum Support Prices 50% higher than cost of production for farmers, announced by Modi in April, could raise prices of food. Core inflation, which excludes cost of food and fuel, rose by 5.92%, while headline inflation rose by 4.58% in April. This maybe a one off and not a cycle of hikes because the RBI kept its bias at neutral which means that it will raise rates only if indicated, wrote T Bandopadhyay. Fuel prices drive inflation only in Thailand and Taiwan, inflation is solely determined by the output gap in Japan, Singapore and Hong Kong, while food prices have an effect in China and Korea. India, Philippines and Indonesia are vulnerable to the exchange rate of their currencies against the dollar, wrote A Mukherjee. Central banks of both Philippines and Indonesia have raised interest rates already and are ready to raise them again, so India is behind the curve. India is in a better position than in 2013 when the rupee crashed to 69 against the dollar. Our twin deficits, fiscal and current account, are high, but below 2013 levels, retail inflation level is low, and we have much larger foreign exchange reserves. Trouble is that "India's underlying external imbalances have markedly deteriorated in recent years," wrote SZ Chinoy. "If one excludes net-oil and gold imports, India runs a sizeable current account surplus. But that current account surplus has seen a sustained deterioration over the last three years, declining from 4.6% of GDP in the second half of 2014 to 2.2% of GDP in the second half of 2017." Why? "Between the start of 2014 and the end of 2017, India's broad trade-weighted real exchange rate appreciated almost 20%." The rupee was very strong. This hit our exports. India's exports as a percentage of GDP is the lowest since 2003-04, wrote M Chakravarty. If the rupee falls our exports will benefit, wrote Agarwal and Chopra. Just before an election? The opposition will crow.