Thursday, September 25, 2014

Thank God the US refused a visa for Mr Modi.

As our Prime Minister begins his visit to the US we Indians are thankful for the boorish behavior of the US government that denied him a visa because of the riots in Gujarat in 2002. This is the country that claims the right to kill innocent children in cowardly drone attacks, regularly. Unlike Manmohan Singh, who visited the US 11 times, Modi should be under no illusions. There will be enormous pressure on him to sign the Trade Facilitation Treaty at the WTO without any guarantees on agricultural subsidies. The US has mounted a ferocious attack on our pharmaceutical industry, regularly accusing it of lower standards. Then there are the Non Resident Indians, brown skinned Uncle Toms and Aunty Tammies, who think they are far superior to native Indians. Modi's agenda seems simple. India is open for business and what is in it for us. Western countries, including the US, have no idea on how to tail off central bank stimulus which is supporting their economies. Zero interest rates and bond buying by central banks of the US, UK and Japan have injected massive amounts of liquidity in global markets which has led to asset price bubbles everywhere, prompting the Bank for International Settlement to issue a warning about " irrational exuberance ". Stock markets and real estate prices are soaring. Property prices in Britain have reached ridiculous levels. To cut our import of gold in an effort to reduce the runaway Current Account Deficit the Congress increased taxes on gold and severely restricted imports. Gold import has fallen from 1,150 tonnes in 2011 to an expected 800 tonnes this year. And yet the Royal Mint is Britain is making it easier for British savers to buy gold. Why? Why is it bad for Indians to buy gold but good for the Brits? The US is stopping its bond buying program, called Quantitative Easing, and there is a strong lobby for increasing lending rate, which has been at zero since 2008, driven by domestic politics of rich versus the poor. On the other hand some believe that a higher lending rate in the US could make the dollar stronger, making other currencies weak, so that no one can challenge its reserve currency status. A strong dollar will drive oil prices down, further hurting the Russian economy, which is already suffering from sanctions. But is the US cutting its nose to spite its face as it pushes Russia and China closer, making China more powerful. Their cooperation could lay the grounds for world trade in currencies other than the dollar. The Reserve Bank Governor is worried about the possibility of a crash in the global economy. Finally, Modi should remember the brutal treatment of Krittika Biswas by New York City Police baboons. Since he has no personal interest in the US Mr Modi maybe able to gain from their fears. We pray for him.

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