Thursday, September 04, 2014

Enormous problems but little time left.

Mr Modi's trip to Japan is seen as a success by the pundits. There is great joy because Japan has agreed to invest $35 billion in India which should create a lot of jobs. But what sort of jobs? Japan has very advanced technology, which by its very nature, requires few humans to operate. In the next few decades we will probably see robots replacing humans in many fields. Cars and buses will drive themselves putting chauffeurs out of work, unlimited energy from solar and nuclear sources will reduce mining for fuels and factories will be fully automated, needing a few technicians to keep an eye on production. After the events at the Maruti plant at Manesar in Haryana in 2012 the Japanese will be wary of Indian labor so labor laws will have to be altered and unions defanged. While trade is important cooperation with Japan in defense is probably even more so because of the threat of China. Instead of involving its neighbors in its prosperity this nation of cockroach-eaters has embarked on a belligerent form of hegemony which has alarmed the entire region. In keeping with its parasitic devouring of every living creature a Chinese corporate lawyer has written a long article advising India to open all its iron ore resources to China so as to reduce the $31 billion trade deficit that we have with them. That is surely the last thing we should do. Pouring 100 million tonnes of iron ore into the open market will slash its value allowing the Chinese to produce steel very cheaply to export to the world. Instead we should use Japanese help to produce high quality steel for exports, helping to reduce our Current Account Deficit. The CAD has fallen by $14 billion from a year ago due to a $7.8 billion increase in exports and fall in imports by $8 billion, largely due to restrictions on the import of gold. India has fallen to 71 in the global competitiveness index, from 50 five years ago because of double digit inflation due to the indiscriminate spending by the Congress, which then increased taxes to unbearable levels to try to balance the budget. Persistent inflation is even hurting our sovereign rating, which is one level above junk status. Inflation is largely due to rising food prices because the government procures food grains at a Minimum Support Price, which is higher than the market price, and then exports grains at a loss. This cannot be sustained. The government has to cut its expenditure, control inflation and cut taxes. The only way is to reduce demand by reducing the population drastically by linking every handout to no children. Otherwise mother nature will do it and that will be catastrophic. Time is running out.

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