Sunday, September 07, 2014

Does economic amnesia respond to a bash on the head?

In cartoons amnesia is cured by a bang on the head. Maybe economists in India could be bashed on the head from time to time to cure their selective amnesia. One very learned economist regularly writes op-eds for newspapers. In his latest contribution he writes that Mr Modi has been very lucky because the economy was bound to recover from its collapse, that the recovery was due to the policies of the previous Finance Minister, oil prices have fallen and the global economy is starting to grow again. By contrast Chidambaram was an unlucky Finance Minister from 2012-14 because Indians suddenly started to buy gold putting a strain on the Current Account Deficit, the rupee fell from 55 to the dollar to 68 and then settled at 62, oil prices were high and the global economy was stagnating. This is where the writer has suddenly been afflicted by amnesia because he has completely forgotten that Chidambaram was also finance minster from 2004-2008 and the crisis was entirely his doing. He started the NREGA scheme which pays the rural poor for 100 days a year for doing nothing. This cost Rs 2.5 trillion and increased rural wage inflation by providing a floor under wages of rural labor and was partly responsible for the food inflation that followed. He forgave all loans to farmers, at a cost of Rs 750 billion, and he increased salaries of useless civil servants to win elections in 2009.  When he took charge in 2004 retail inflation was at 3.78%, when he left it was near 10%. He exerted enormous pressure on the Reserve Bank not to increase interest rates which meant that interest earned on savings was less than CPI so savers were losing money. Only 2 assets can protect your money from inflation - land and gold. You cannot invest small amounts in land so gold was the only option. The price of oil is highly volatile, reflecting the instability of the middle east, but average prices from 2004-2013 were below $100 a barrel although it went up to $140 in 2008 before falling sharply. The rupee was around 45 to the dollar in 2004, fell to 40 in 2007 and is now around 60 to the dollar. Finally, there is a flood of money coming into our stocks because of very low interest rates in the US, Europe and Japan but the same situation obtained from 2003 when Alan Greenspan, then Chairman of the Federal Reserve, cut interest rate to 1% and kept it there causing the sub-prime crisis in 2008. The Indian economy grew fast on cheap debt and instead of caution Chidambaram was swanning around in Davos on taxpayer expense. Either the writer is deliberately mendacious or he has amnesia. Maybe a bash on the head will help.

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