Wednesday, September 03, 2014

100 days gone, 1725 still to go.

Why is everyone so excited about Mr Modi's first 100 days as Prime Minister when he has been elected for 5 years? Most of the English press seems confused. Everyone is agreed that Modi " hit the ground running " but they are also sure that there have been no " big bang reforms ", just little incremental steps. You can either be Usain Bolt or a toddler, not both. An opinion poll carried out in 8 cities shows that 16% think that his performance has been excellent while 42% think that it has been good, giving him a 58% approval rating. On priorities, 36% think he has got them absolutely right while 53% think that he is more or less right. On whether he is delivering on campaign promises 45% think that he is delivering as promised while 31% think that it is too early to assess. Most journalists in the English press are Congress supporters and hostile to the BJP, which they decry as Hindu nationalists as though being a Hindu is wrong and being a patriot a crime. But they cannot be too severe as Modi has carried on with Congress programs such as Aadhar, NREGA and the budget. This was because he could not disclose the desperate state of the economy. That would create panic, causing foreign investors to flee and the stock market to crash. The poor are used to handouts and, although inflationary, this state-sponsored spending increases demand and helps company profits. The NREGA scheme has been delinked from building toilets in rural areas and more money has been allocated to building separate toilets for boys and girls. Unlike the previous Prime Minister, who preferred to travel to the US, Modi's first foreign visit was to little Bhutan. Japan has promised $35 billion to help build our infrastructure but has not agreed to a nuclear deal unless India signs the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Signing the NPT would be suicide for us as we share long borders with hostile Pakistan and China. Instead Modi could have asked for Japanese help to develop Thorium plants to produce power. We have large reserves of Thorium and it does not produce plutonium and so cannot be used for weapons. Maybe later. Some lecture Modi on controlling inflation by instituting reforms. Severe changes such as reducing handouts, reform of labor laws and land acquisition will need majority in both houses of parliament. For that Modi has to win elections in states. Maybe that is why he has instructed public sector banks to open accounts for every citizen. Banks are already saddled with trillions in bad loans so this is a bad move. If he succeeds in cajoling the states in passing the Goods and Services Tax bill the economy will receive a stimulus and he will have room to cut taxes and handouts, as more people are employed. We pray.

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