Tuesday, June 10, 2014

A slow spiral downwards?

Seems that Barack Obama is unable to do anything right. While 48% of people approve of him 50% of people disapprove, with 24% disapproving strongly. The roll out of the Affordable Care Act, which was to be his legacy, turned into a fiasco. Now the swap of 5 Taliban prisoners from Guantanamo for Sgt Bowe Bergdahl, which was built as the-US-always-brings-its boys-home moment, has turned into a nightmare with former comrades of Bergdahl accusing him of being a deserter who caused the death of 6 soldiers sent out to rescue him. His foreign policy is confused. He talked of a ' red line ' in Syria but did nothing and now his support for the right wing thugs in Kiev has precipitated a civil war which is almost sure to end with a division of Ukraine. Bashar al Assad has just been reelected with a massive majority. The US called it a sham but has been criticised by foreign observers who have endorsed the election as ' free and fair '. Even his efforts to bring peace between Palestine and Israel seems to have been hijacked by the Pope. Obama's problem is that he is a natural gasbag and his every action is based on calculation of political gain rather than on principle. Of course, not all problems are of his doing. The removal of Saddam was probably the most moronic act of George Bush. As we predicted at the time the country is slowly disintegrating into a Shia south, a Sunni middle and a Kurdish north. A hardline Islamist group, the Islamic State in Iraq and Levant has captured Mosul in the north, after the army ran away, prompting the government to declare a state of emergency. The extreme fanaticism of this group has made the Free Syrian Army redundant and made Assad more popular. Problem for Obama is that he cannot denounce Assad's election completely because Christians in Syria voted for him. Oh dear. If Iraq does break up into 3 parts Iran will become extremely strong because the south of Iraq has a long border with Saudi Arabia which is the headquarters of Sunnis and its visceral enemy. Iran could send in small teams of terrorists if it chose to do so, to destabilise Saudi Arabia. The oil producing region of Saudi is in the southeast, across the Gulf from Iran and has a sizable Shia population. Turkey is never going to tolerate an independent Kurdistan and may try to annex it. Infighting among various armed factions in Libya is reducing its oil output, opposite to what the west had planned when it murdered Gaddafi along with 30,000 Libyans. After Congressional elections in November Obama will be a lame duck and will limp out of office in 2 years. What a disappointment.

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