Monday, June 23, 2014

How do we protect ourselves from headless chickens.

Had India not been adversely affected by the fighting in Iraq the way Obama and co are running around like headless chickens with no idea of what to do would have been so amusing. Sadly many thousands of Indians are trapped in Iraq and oil prices have jumped at a time when the monsoon rains maybe affected by El Nino, increasing food prices. The US is mostly responsible. First they destroy the government and the economy of Iraq and then they withdraw completely leaving it in the hands of Nouri al Maliki, a Shia, who took refuge in Iran to escape a death sentence for opposing Saddam Hussein, a Sunni. He filled all government posts with Shias resulting in massive unemployment among Sunni youths. Not much different from what Mr Akhilesh Yadav did when he filled UP police with Yadavs resulting in a huge crime wave as they refused to register crimes committed by their community. Meanwhile in Syria the majority Sunnis were losing the war against the army controlled by Alawis, a Shia sect, with support from Hezbollah from Lebanon. An extremely fanatical group called the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria entered Iraq and has made rapid progress supported by angry Sunnis and remnants of Saddam's Baathist Party along with surviving Republican Guard officers. The west is in utter chaos. The British press is recommending impeaching Tony Blair which is stupid because he is not in office. He should be tried as a mass murderer at the International Criminal Court. In the US some want to do something while others recommend doing nothing. But do what? The ISIS is not a bunch of wild eyed towel-heads as they imagine. They publish their accounts, are active on social media and have become extremely wealthy by looting banks in the areas they have captured. It is receiving support in Europe and the US. It would not be enough to bomb a few of them in Iraq. They must be defeated in Syria too but that will hand an easy victory to Assad which the US does not want. The US could ask Iran to help. Iran's army would run over ISIS in a few days and reach Syria but that would unite Iran, Iraq and Syria along with Hezbollah in Lebanon making it extremely strong and taking it right to the border with Israel. So far ISIS has been careful not to approach the Shia shrines in Najaf and Karbala but should that happen Iran will come in anyway. How to defeat Shia Assad in Damascus by using Sunni ISIS ,with support from Qatar and Saudi Arabia, but support Shia al Maliki in Baghdad by defeating Sunni ISIS in Iraq without making Shia Iran extremely strong? How to square a circle, in other words. And if Iran becomes so strong how to protect Israel and stop Sunni Turkey and Egypt from joining in a free for all. Headless chickens are not known for taking logical decisions. We should insulate ourselves.

No comments: