Wednesday, December 21, 2011

" If the country has high fiscal deficit and high inflation, and also high current account deficit, I don't see why the currency will not depreciate," said Deputy Governor of the Reserve Bank, KC Chakrabarty. Uncontrolled fiscal deficit is caused by various social schemes which cost vast sums of money but have done nothing to reduce poverty or hunger. The reason is that most of the money is stolen by local politicians and civil servants. Most of these schemes are actually bribes to the " vote bank " to win elections with taxpayers' money and as such this is probably the biggest scam in India far outstripping the 2G, Commonwealth Games, mining scam and all other scams put together. This was proved by the news that the Congress is furious at state governments for taking all the credit for social schemes such as MGNREGA, Pradhan Mantri Gramin Sadak Yojana, Indira Awas Yojana, Total Sanitation campaign and old age pension. At Rs 880 billion this government is spending the highest on social scams and is furious for not getting credit that it thinks is its due. TOI, December 22. We were not aware that the Congress has such a sense of humor. Anyone travelling by train in India has to endure the sight of naked buttocks of people defecating in fields and beside railway tracks. Total Sanitation Yojana has to be the biggest joke perpetrated on the people of India. In the midst of all this credit rating agency Moody's has upgraded the rating of government from speculative to investment grade sparking a 510 points or 3.36% rise in the Sensex yesterday. Why? On the same day Moody's has forecast GDP growth will fall below 7%. We know ratings agencies were spectacularly wrong in the sub-prime mortgage crisis. Recently Standard and Poor's downgraded US credit rating only to see investors piling into the dollar and US bonds. Yield on 10 year Indian government bonds are at 8.4%, there is no hope of controlling deficit and the rupee is expected to fall further. To make matters worse the government is going to introduce Food Security bill which aims to give cheap grains to 70% of rural and 50% of urban population. This will make fiscal deficit and inflation soar and the rupee to sink. So what is the reason for Moody's action. Mystery!

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