Thursday, December 15, 2011
Enormous confusion surrounding contraction in industrial output by 5%. Seems that statisticians had reported a growth in the capital goods sector by 25% in the previous month when, in fact, it had shrunk by 25.5%. They had apparently forgotten to put a minus ( - ) sign in front of the figure. Between April- October engineering exports were reported in excess of $15 billion while jewellery and petroleum goods were under reported by $12 billion. No wonder our most revered Finance Minister has no clue as to what can be done about the falling rupee. Rate of growth is falling, fiscal and current account deficits are rising and foreign currency reserves are sufficient for 8 months of imports, down from 12 months just one year ago. Yesterday the RBI sold dollars to support the rupee so our reserves must be even worse this morning. Ten year bond yields have touched 8.5%, anything over 7% is considered unsustainable for European economies. This is because of wasteful spending of taxpayer money for various dubious schemes to win elections which increases deficit and the only way the government can pay is by borrowing from the market putting pressure on rates. Printing notes to pay back debts only raises inflation and weakens the rupee. The only good news is that food inflation is down to 4.35% but the Wholesale Price Index is still at 9.1%. Every idiot is clamoring for a decrease in the interest rates which, they think, will boost growth by boosting business but the RBI may have to increase rates to support the rupee. Luckily we have the World Famous Economist and the great sage to guide us. Hope they do not turn into Santa and Bunta.
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