Friday, December 23, 2011

Middle east games.

Just 4 days after US troops left Iraq multiple explosions killed dozens of people in Baghdad. The government blames Al Qaeda in Iraq linked to Sunni groups. This is being interpreted as revenge or warning for the warrant issued for the arrest of Vice President Tariq Al-Hashemi who is Sunni. The Prime Minster, Nouri Al-Maliki, a Shia, blames Hashemi for terrorist attacks on government officials and defence personnel, a charge angrily denied by Hashemi. With the help of President Jalal Talabani, who is a Kurd, Mr Hashemi has escaped north, into area held by the Kurds. Maliki has demanded the Kurds hand him over to face justice. Hashemi has accused Maliki of behaving like a dictator and asked investigators to come to him because he does not think he will get justice in Baghdad. All very stupid and lethal so far. But why is Maliki precipitating a crisis that could lead to a civil war? He has everything to lose. If Iraq gets divided along sectarian lines hundreds of thousands will die and the economy will disappear. Is he acting on orders from Iran? Iran is in a very tough position. After the trashing of the British embassy in Teheran more sanctions have been imposed on the country already suffering from shortages and a high inflation from previous sanctions. The Assad regime in Syria, Iran's best friend in the region, looks to be tottering and its collapse will bring in a Sunni government who will hate Shia Iran. Worse because of Syria's control over Lebanon Iran's hounds, the Hezbollah, will lose support. At best it will not receive supplies of arms sent by Iran, at worst Syrians may topple the Hezbollah government in Lebanon and dismantle its structure. If Shias get complete control over Iraq then Iran could move forces into southern Iraq which has a very long border with Saudi Arabia. With this move they can blackmail the west by threatening its oil supply. Also the beards in Iran would love to get control of the 2 Holy mosques in Saudi Arabia. Western countries can never allow this to happen so war will become inevitable. Israel would love that because it could use the confusion to try and bomb Iran's nuclear facilities. What were the predictions in the Mayan calender for 2012? When you are dreaming of 72 virgins reason disappears.

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