Friday, August 19, 2011

Stock markets all over the world fell yesterday and are falling again today. Banks such as Morgan Stanley are predicting a 1 in 3 chance of a global recession. US manufacturing and house sales have fallen sharply but retail spending is still good and oil prices are dropping. In Europe countries like Finland and Austria are demanding collateral from Greece before contributing to its bail out fund. Greek economy is predicted to contract because of the severe austerity imposed on it which will reduce employment and tax revenue thus making it impossible for Greece to repay its loans making default inevitable. European banks exposed to debts of Greece, Spain and Italy are seeing their shares fall precipitously. US authorities have been holding meetings with European banks operating in the US to find out if they have enough liquidity in the US so that US customers do not lose even if loans in Europe turn sour. The European Central Bank has said that an unnamed bank has been borrowing $ 500 million everyday for 7 days which maybe a hint at tightening of inter bank lending. This is what happened in 2008 after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. But would it be such a disaster if the global economy goes into recession or even deflation. Unbridled growth over the last few decades has seen the rich getting richer while incomes of middle classes shrank in real terms in the US and the UK. A similar event has been taking place in India. The rich want more money, politicians want money for campaign finance while we suffer. That is why campaign finance reform has been blocked by the rich in every country. A recession may make us more equal.

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