Beware of Americans bearing gifts.

"India's investigation into US claims of an attempted murder of a Khalistani separatist in New York found that rogue operatives not authorized by the government had been involved in the plot, according to senior officials." "New Delhi has informed US authorities about the findings from the government-appointed panel set up to probe the allegations." ET. Such haste is almost indecent because it was only in November 2023 that "Nikhil Gupta, 52, has been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years," as "US authorities said Gupta agreed to pay an assassin $100,000 to kill the Khalistani separatist leader living in New York City." ET. Hoping to apply a band-aid to the embarrassment, "An intelligence operative has been removed from his position and several others were reshuffled following an investigation into US claims of an alleged plot to kill Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." HT. But, were the operatives "not authorized"? "Days after Canadian national public broadcaster CBC released a footage of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar's fatal killing, the Centre reportedly asked video streaming site YouTube to ban the video from viewing in India, a report claimed." ET. But why? "India has rejected allegations made by the Canadian government linking it to the assassination of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar. In a statement, the ministry of external affairs (MEA) termed the allegations 'absurd' and 'motivated'." TOI. Why ban something which is absurd? Mystery. Also, why bend to US demands while dismissing Canadian claims? Maybe because the US is one of very few countries with which we have a positive trade balance. "US goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $191.8 billion in 2022. Exports were $73.0 billion; imports were $118.8 billion. The US goods and services trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2022." ustr.gov. On 20 March, "The US government recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as part of India and 'strongly opposes' any unilateral attempts to advance territorial claims in the northeastern Indian state that shares a border with China, the US State Department said." Reuters. The next day China "said it firmly opposes the US recognition of Arunachal Pradesh as part of India territory," and "also accused the US of 'instigating and using other countries' disputes' for selfish geopolitical interests." ET. Ominous. "A top US admiral has issued a stark warning about China's military and nuclear ambitions, indicating that Beijing is ramping up its military and nuclear capabilities to levels unseen since World War II," "highlighting China's readiness to invade Taiwan by 2027." ET. On the other hand, "An assessment by US intelligence agencies warns of a 'potential' armed conflict between India and China amid large troop deployments by both sides." HT. US President Joe Biden may have pledged to defend Taiwan against an attack by China  (Reuters) but would much prefer India to bear the brunt of a Chinese attack. US trade and support are welcome but we should remember the old adage of 'Beware of Greeks bearing gifts' (wikipedia). Or Americans.

A panacea for all problems.

"Fertility rates in nearly all countries will be too low to sustain population levels by the end of the century, and most of the births will be occurring in poorer countries, according to a study." "Over three-quarters of live births will occur in low- and lower-middle-income countries by the end of the century, with more than half taking place in sub-Saharan Africa." "The global fertility rates - the average number of births per woman - has fallen from around 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, data show." Reuters. 2.2 is almost the replacement level of fertility. "Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next." In developed countries it is 2.1 per woman but in countries with high infant mortality rates it can be much higher. NIH. It is also a fact that total fertility rate (TFR) declines with rising levels of education in women. In India, "At the national level, TFR for women having educational status 'illiterate' in 2018 was 3. This is much higher than the literate group which has a TFR of 2.1" TOI. Except for just 4 states, Bihar, Meghalaya, Jharkhand and Uttar Pardesh (UP), all other states of India had a TFR well below 2 in 2024. findeasy.in. India's TFR will collapse to 1.29 in 2050, warned a study in Lancet. This may lead to challenges such as "an aging population, labor force shortages, and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences." TOI. Since April 2023, India is estimated to have surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world and is expected to keep growing for the next few decades. BBC. China's population declined for two years in a row to reach 1.409 billion at the end of 2023, a decrease of 2.08 million from 2022." BBC. "Many hospitals in China have stopped offering newborn delivery services this year," and "the number of maternity hospitals dropped to 793 in 2021 from 807 in 2020." Reuters. But, "In 2023 there were 7.68 million newlyweds in the country, 12.4% more than in the previous year, data shows." BBC. However, China is not unique. In South Korea, "A total of 193,657 couples got married last year, up 1.0% from 191,690 a year earlier and the first increase since 2011." Reuters. Even in the US, "in 2020, the marriage rate was down to 5.1 per 1,000 people," but "by 2022, the number of marriages had reached 6.2 per 1,000 and over 2 million in a year." Number of divorces fell to 2.4 per 1,000 in 2022. CNN. In India, although 86.8% of children in the age group 14-18 years are enrolled in educational institutions, 25% of them "cannot read a Class-2 level text fluently in their regional languages", according to the latest report by the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER). More than half of them struggle with simple division problems. DH. Fewer people will mean less demand for food, housing and natural resources. There will be no shortage of water as Bengaluru is experiencing at present (NDTV). As for an aging population, rapid advances in robotics and Artificial Intelligence may fill the demand for labor. And, fewer people will allow forests to regrow and stop, or even reverse, global warming as happened in the Americas when Europeans began to settle there (India Today). A TFR of 1.29 will be a panacea for all our problems. Those born in 2050 will be lucky. 

Classic or froth.

"The (US) Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday (yesterday), but policymakers indicated they still expect to reduce them by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024 despite stodgier expected progress towards the US central bank's 2% inflation target." "The Fed's new policy statement described" "consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rising at a 2.6% rate by the end of the year", "Growth is seen at 2.1% for the year" and "the unemployment rate is seen ending the year at 4%." ET. In reaction, "US stock markets hit record highs," as "The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, finishing at 5,224.62," "the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped about 1% to close at a record of 39,512," and "The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising more than 1% to close at a record level of 16,369." yahoo. The US  market "is all about one big sector, tech, and within that sector," "the Magnificent Seven are up by 80% on average, and account for more than half of all US stock market gains over that time." "India's bull market is, by contrast, a broad-based classic," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Indeed, "Nvidia's stock price jumped 16% to $785.38...increasing the company's market value by a staggering $277 billion in just a single day, setting a new record." The single-day surge was more than the entire market capitalization of all listed IT companies in India at approximately $260 billion and that of India's most valuable company Reliance Industries, valued at about $240 billion. Mint. Whereas the US market regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which "is an independent federal government regulatory agency responsible for protecting investors" (Investors) seems unperturbed, India's market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) (wikipedia) "chief Madhabi Puri Bach...flagged 'froth' in small and mid-cap stocks, referring to the 'off the charts' valuations in these market segments." "Her comments come at a time when the small and mid-cap shares have outperformed major indices." TOI. "Stocks are riding an intense bull market - notwithstanding intermittent corrections - driven by a broad-based boom. With large caps gaining, mid- and small-caps are rising even faster, with hints of froth and a spreading equity culture," said the monthly bulletin from the Reserve Bank (RBI). MC. "The shares of income and wealth of India's top 1% at 22.6% and 40.1% respectively is at their 'highest historical levels' in 2022-23, beating even developed economies such as the US, according to a paper released by the World Inequality Lab." MC. Stock market froth is necessary to increase the wealth of Dear Leader's friends but Dear Leader will not be best pleased if it pops just before general election, starting on 19 April (wikipedia). While the US Fed is trying for a soft landing of the economy, our regulators are trying for a soft landing of stock markets. Till the election is over.     

Manhattan, half of Bandra.

"Land is getting hard to find in a sprawling industrial park in southern India where workers are scrambling to build modern new warehouses and factories for companies betting on the country's economic boom or diversifying their supply chains beyond China." "Businesses in India have traditionally relied on dingy, stuffy low-rise sheds known as godowns for their storage needs, but these are unsuited to the needs of foreign industrial giants," "So developers such as Greenbase are scouting for land nationwide, as they grapple with thorny acquisition issues." Reuters. Land is the biggest problem. Recently , "an office tower in New York's upmarket Manhattan was sold at a 70% discount." The tower sold for $500 million in 2014, but for only $150 million this time. Banker Uday Kotak said that "at Rs 16,000 per sq ft, the price of the said New York property is less than half the rate at Mumbai's upmarket Bandra Kurla." NDTV. India has a population of 1.438 billion people and it is growing. worldometer. Crammed in about 1.27 million sq miles. wikipedia. The US has a population of about 341 million people (worldometer), less than one-fourth the population of India, in 3.53 million sq miles (wikipedia), nearly 3 times the size of India. More factories and warehouses mean less land for growing food. In January 2024, "Union Minister Piyush Goyal...said there is no proposal before the government as of now to lift export curbs on wheat, rice and sugar." ET. This is to increase domestic supplies and thus suppress prices, but is grossly unfair as it transfers farmers' profits to consumers. "A population of over a billion people, a young demographic keen on spending, and recent optimism have all fostered the belief that India is on the cusp of a consumer boom." "By 2030, India will have an estimated 227 millennials (those born during 1981-1996) and 374 million Gen Z (born 1997-2010) persons." "The next major trend - when it occurs - will be towards products that offer convenience, sustainability, value-for-money; with AI-driven features and app-based options to customize the experience," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. But will every Indian join in the consumer boom? "India's top 1% owned more than 40.5% of its total wealth in 2021," while the bottom 50% owned only 3%. BBC. "Researchers in India and the UK who used Poshan data from September 2023 have noted" "that 39% of around 83 million children in the anganwadi centers in September 2023 had experienced stunting." "18% were underweight and 6% experienced wasting." Telegraph. With limited land and a growing population it may come to a choice between factories and warehouses, not to forget new homes for living in, on the one hand and agriculture on the other. A choice between consumption of luxuries or a consumption of food. Like now. Perhaps worse.      

Of bonds plus trust.

"The electoral bond data provides revelations which everybody suspected for a long time: of a nexus between industry and politics, to the detriment of citizens." "One, the quid pro quo between political donations and award of government contract is out in the open," and two, "the proliferation of shell companies as a platform for the nifty routing of funds for political purposes." Mint. "One such opaque arrangement involved the use of small, nondescript group companies as pass-throughs, as the case of Kolkata-based Madanlal Ltd shows." "Madanlal Ltd bought electoral bonds for Rs 186 crore (Rs 1.86 billion)," "on 8 and 10 May 2019, preceding the last two stages of the 2019 general elections that saw voting for 118 seats, including 17 from West Bengal." Madanlal Ltd's total income in 2021-22 was just Rs 30 million. pressreader. So who did all that money go to? To the Trinamool Congress (TMC) which won 215 seats out of a total of 294 seats in the Assembly elections in 2021 or to the BJP which gained a whopping 74 seats for a total of 77 seats? wikipedia. In the general election of 2019 the BJP gained 16 seats while the TMC lost 12. wikipedia. Out of a total of Rs 165.18 billion worth of Electoral Bonds purchased, the BJP redeemed Rs 82.518 billion, which is just under 50%, while the Congress was a distant second with Rs 19.52 billion and the TMC third with Rs 17.05 billion. The Wire. At every step the State Bank of India (SBI), a public sector bank, has sought to delay releasing information on the bonds by releasing the minimum required so as not to earn the Supreme Court's (SC) ire. In 2018, investigative journalist Poonam Agarwal bought two bonds which revealed unique alphanumeric numbers under UV rays. The Wire. The SBI did not disclose the buyer and recipient of each unique number. The 5-judge bench of the SC ordered the chairman of SBI to file an affidavit by 5 pm on 21 March proving the alphanumeric and serial numbers of all bonds have been disclosed. TOI. Will the SBI link the buyer and recipient with each number or will it wait for another appeal and further waste of time? Surprisingly, the President of the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) Adish Aggarwala wrote a private letter to the Chief Justice DY Chandrachud pleading that releasing the names of donors may render companies vulnerable to victimisation. The judges dismissed it as "publicity-related". Who is he trying to protect? Meanwhile, an obscure electoral trust, "The Prudent Electoral Trust has raised $272 million since its creation in 2013, funneling roughly 75% of that to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Party." Reuters. Just three days back Mr Modi promised "anyone indulging in corruption will not be spared". India Today. "With an approval rating of 78%, PM Narendra Modi has once again emerged as the most popular leader in the world, a Morning Consult survey said." TOI. Which means 78% of Indians believe what Mr Modi says. What about the 22% who don't? Can they convince the Bhakts (DH)? 

Unlikely to happen.

 "An assessment by US intelligence agencies warns of a 'potential' armed conflict between India and China amid large troop deployments by both sides and sporadic encounters between their militaries, adding the border dispute 'will remain a strain' on ties between the neighbors. The assessment further states that China is looking to establish military bases at multiple locations - including Sri Lanka and Pakistan - in its attempt to 'project power' and 'protect China's interests abroad." HT. India has deployed, "A 10,000 strong unit of soldiers previously assigned to the country's western border has now been set aside to guard a stretch of its frontier with China," and "In addition, an existing contingent of 9,000 soldiers, already designated to the disputed Chinese border, will be brought under the newly created fighting command." ET. True, India was defeated and humiliated and lost a significant amount of territory in the 1962 war with China (Britannica), but that was then. In June 2020, 45 Chinese soldiers were killed in hand-to-hand fighting with Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh. India Today. Besides, an army full of 'Little Emperors' of China's one-parent families (NPR) may not have the appetite for a bloody conflict. The US seems to wish a war between India and China. Why? Maybe, because it is terrified of having to fight China. The war in Ukraine was deliberately engineered by the expansion of NATO (Britannica) despite western propaganda vilifying Russian President Putin. "Fast forward two years and hopes of a Ukrainian victory look diminished and increasingly hollow, as do Western pledges to support Ukraine 'for as long as it takes'." CNBC. "The Joe Biden administration and the US Congress have directed about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy." CFR. In addition, "The US Navy is encountering a tenacious threat in the Red Sea." "Although the Navy has invested heavily in anti-air technology, including most notably the Aegis combat system for the past several decades, the most effective missiles are also the most expensive and most difficult to produce." And, "China's rocket troops can potentially field thousands of missiles that can reach across wide swaths of the Pacific." CNBC. This is relevant because, "US President Joe Biden has warned China that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack in the disputed South China Sea." BBC. Then there is the fear of a Trump return. "It has become rank heresy in liberal circles to define Donald Trump as anything but the second coming of Hitler, or at least Mussolini." "Yet, during Trump's first presidency, no new major wars were started, a first for any administration since the onset of the national security state 80 years ago." Dawn. The deep state in the US (wikipedia) is terrified of being found for what it is - a deep rot in the US government and society. If it can somehow get China to concentrate on India it will take away a major stress on the US. And give it time. Sadly, it's not going to happen.    

A clear, well-trodden path.

"Four years after it was passed, the BJP-led government has now notified the rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) of 2019. This comes ahead of general elections to be held next month." Quint. "Sporadic protests have broken out across the country after the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government implemented the CAA on March 11. The law, which has faced criticism for alleged discrimination against Muslims, was put into effect just days before the announcement of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024." Mint. There were protests in Tamil Nadu, Assam and West Bengal. "The Home Ministry's March 11 notification,...has sparked a surge in fresh petitions filed against the CAA in the Supreme Court." "Over 200 petitions challenging the Act are pending in the Supreme Court since December 2019. With a substantial number of petitions lined up for review, the apex court is preparing for a thorough of the CAA and its rules." FM. Still preparing? The Court has not found time to judge a matter of such constitutional importance in 4 years. "If you hear comments from many parts of the world, it is as if the partition of India never happened, there were no consequential problems which the CAA is supposed to address," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. "Union Home Minister Amit Shah has reiterated that CAA is a law to provide citizenship rights and it will not snatch away citizenship from anyone." newsonair.gov.in. However, the biggest support for the CAA came from the Taliban. "In its first reaction to the implementation of the CAA in India, the Taliban's head of political office in Doha, Suhail Shaheen, said that any such law should be for all 'irrespective of religion', even as he denied that there was any persecution of minorities in Afghanistan." The Wire. That is hilarious, indeed. In 2022, "The Taliban has ordered judges in Afghanistan to fully impose their interpretation of Sharia Law," so that "Women in Afghanistan can no longer work in most sectors and require a male guardian for long-distance travel, while girls have been barred from returning to secondary school." CNN. "In Arabic, Sharia literally means 'the clear, well-trodden path to water'. Sharia acts as a code for living that all Muslims should adhere to, including prayers, fasting and donations to the poor." BBC. Since these rules are from the Quran and for everyone living in Afghanistan it means that minorities are being forced to follow Islam. All women must be covered from head to toe in a Burqa, including women of minorities, (BBC) even though their religions do not have any such provision. The Taliban should be careful. If India allows citizenship for Muslims, a large number of Afghan women might choose to escape to India. Their objection is a clear, well-trodden path for the CAA. Our government must be pleased.   

Need mystifying growth.

"The Indian economy is likely to transition to an upper-middle income country, with per capita income of $4466, between the financial years 2033 and 2036, Indian Ratings and Research said." "Until 2006, the World Bank classified India as a low-income country. In 2007, India moved to the lower middle-income country and since then has remained there." DH. "Investment has emerged as a significant contributor to India's thriving economy, according to economists at Morgan Stanley. They also noted that the nation's current growth trajectory mirrors that of the mid-2000s, a period characterised by an average growth rate beyond 8%." ABP. "Surpassing the expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against an 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed." ET. But, "Indian industrial activity in January grew at a weaker-than-expected rate of 3.8% year-on-year on the back of slowdown in manufacturing and mining activity, government data showed." "Manufacturing activity in January rose 3.2% year-on-year, slower than 4.5% in the same month the previous year." Reuters. India's merchandise exports grew by 12% to $41.4 billion and cumulative exports in the 11 months between April 2023 and February 2024 stood at $395 billion. Services exports in February were $32.15 billion and in 11 months to February were $314.82 billion. HT. "India's forex kitty jumped by USD 10.47 billion to USD 636.095 billion for the week ended March 8, the Reserve Bank (RBI) said," while, "the foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, increased by USD 8.121 billion to USD 562.352 billion." BS. Net investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) into equity and debt from 1 January to 15 March stood at Rs 75695 crore (Rs 756.95 billion) which would convert to about $9 billion. NSDL. With the RBI buying so much foreign currency, the resultant increase in liquidity has suppressed yields on 10-year bonds to 7.062 on 15 March. It had fallen to a low of 7.014 on 11 March. investing.com. However, "Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian...said India's latest GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend." "Elaborating further Subramanian said while the implied inflation in these numbers is 1 to 1.5 percent, actual inflation in the economy is somewhere between 3 and 5 percent." ET. Perhaps, even higher (RI). "Economist Sanjeev Sanyal...said India needs to sustain the current growth momentum to reach the "bottom echelons" of being considered a developed country." As "developing fast in imperative, because by 2047, India would have aged and be in the same place as China is right now." ET. "China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023 (Reuters)" because the fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2, much below the replacement level of 2.1, in 2021 (World Bank). Can India become a developed country by 2047? Yes, if its growth rate remains "mystifying". 

Don't dare to say it.

"The results of News 18 Mega Opinion Poll covering 21 states, 518 constituencies and over one lakh respondents continued on the second day...According to the survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win 411 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The survey also predicted 25 out of 28 seats for NDA in Karnataka, 12 out of 14 seats in Assam, 25 out of 42 seats in West Bengal and a clean sweep in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. News18. Since the consecration of the Ram temple on 22 January "the risks are rising disproportionately for Modi. The autocratic leader will likely still be India's next prime minister, but his party's goal of winning 370 parliamentary seats out of 543 is looking like a tall order," wrote Andy Mukherjee. First, the returning officer in the mayoral poll in Chandigarh Anil Masih was seen on video marking ballot papers to make them invalid so as to ensure the BJP candidate won. HT. This may stop returning officers resorting to overt cheating in the parliamentary polls. Second, the Supreme Court forced the State Bank of India (SBI) to hand over details of Electoral Bonds to the Election Commission (EC) and ordered the EC to upload the details on its site by 5 pm on 15 March. BS. The list shows that the major contributions were from unknown companies and the BJP received more than all others combined. TN. Whether the list passes the smell test is for the court to decide. Third, "In a shock move weeks before the Lok Sabha polls, Election Commissioner Arun Goel has quit and his resignation has been accepted by the President." NDTV. Promptly, "The three-member selection panel headed Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday (March 14) appointed two former Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers - Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu - as election commissioners." The Wire. The Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar is also a retired IAS. wikipedia. So now all 3 are from the IAS. Two IAS officers - Hasmukh Adhia and Tapan Ray - were responsible for Electoral Bonds becoming law over the objections of the Reserve Bank (RBI). Adhia was made chairman of the Bank of Baroda and Ray became chairman of the Central Bank of India, both public sector banks, after retiring. The Wire. The then Governor of the RBI Urjit Patel resigned on 10 December 2018, one year prematurely (NDTV) to be replaced by a retired IAS officer Shaktikanta Das whose tenure has since extended by another 3 years (wikipedia). What makes IAS officers so attractive for Mr Modi in key constitutional posts? Mr Modi is not resting solely on ex-IAS officers, though. Rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019 were suddenly notified on 12 March, four years after the Act became law. ET. Cooking gas price was cut by Rs 100 per cylinder, seven days ago. ET. Then, yesterday petrol and diesel prices were cut Rs 2 per liter. TIE. And, the government has blocked the video of the shooting of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. ET. Handouts with taxpayer money, censorship of news and retired IAS officers, victory assured. Apparently, a Pakistani politician gave up his seat alleging vote rigging in his favor in the elections on 8 February. Reuters. It's the army in Pakistan. What about India? Don't say it out loud. 

The last thing we want.

On 11 March 2024, "The ministry of home affairs has notified the Citizenship Amendment Act's (CAA) rules today, paving the way for the law's implementation across the country. The law makes it easier for Hindu, Sikh, Jain, Buddhist, Christian and Parsi refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, to get Indian citizenship." HT. Predictably, the Congress, Communists and Muslims have condemned the Act because Muslims have not been included for citizenship (Mint) and inability to provide documentary proof required for the National Register of Citizenship (wikipedia) may make Muslims vulnerable to deportation. "Questions were raised as to why persecuted minorities in China and Myanmar - Muslims in these cases - and in Sri Lanka, with a linguistic minority of Tamils, were not under the ambit of the new law with opponents of the law pointing out the government's alleged discriminatory attitude." DH. Firstly, there are more than 30 countries, which call themselves Islamic, in the world (nationsonline.org) and thousands of minority women are abducted, raped and forcibly converted to Islam in Pakistan (India Today). Why don't Muslims, who claim to be persecuted refugees, go to these Islamic nations? There is a network which is smuggling illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and providing them with refuge in India. "Security agencies in Jammu and Kashmir are perplexed by the revelation that Rohingyas, illegal immigrants from Myanmar, have fraudulently obtained Aadhar cards, Pan cards and domicile certificates." TN. No nation can open its borders to everyone because nations need to guard against hostile elements and no nation has the resources to provide for hordes of people. Thus, every nation has the right to choose those it will allow inside its borders. Perhaps, the protesters are unaware of another CAA, which is the "Cuban Adjustment Act, US federal law (November 2, 1966) that was enacted with the intent of allowing Cuban natives or citizens in the United States to bypass standard immigration rules to more quickly and easily obtain lawful permanent residency (often called a 'green card')." Britannica. Only Cubans. and no other. According to Portuguese law, those born in Goa, Daman, Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli during Portuguese rule until 19 December 1961, their children and grandchildren are eligible for citizenship of Portugal (Portuguese Nationality), which would automatically entitle them to travel anywhere within the European Union (EU). Obviously, it would be impossible for the EU to give the same facility to over 1.4 billion Indians (worldometer). The Mappila uprising in Kerala in 1921 in which Muslims "specifically targeted Hindus, butchered some and forcibly converted others, with the end goal being the creation of an Islamic state." By calling them "freedom fighters", liberals lose all credibility, wrote Rupa Subramanya. However, the real danger is that "a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center has found that over two-thirds Indians support autocratic or military rule and that support for these forms of government was found to be the highest in India among the 24 countries surveyed." The Print. Since about 79.8%, that is four-fifths, of Indians identify themselves as Hindus (wikipedia), the vast majority supporting dictatorship must be Hindus. Non-Muslims see the CAA as humane, a measure to save lives. Condemning the CAA as a knee-jerk reaction only angers these people. The last thing we want is a fascist government. That would be an unmitigated disaster.         

Difference in luxury.

"US consumer prices increased solidly in February amid higher costs for gasoline and shelter, suggesting some stickiness in inflation that further diminishes the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before June." "Inflation-weary Americans got some relief from their supermarket and medical bills." Reuters. "In February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted." bis.gov. "Consumer inflation posted a surprise acceleration in February," "while the 'core' measure stripping out volatile food and energy prices edged down slightly to 3.8 percent." "The Fed has signaled it could start reducing rates this year, so long there is continued progress in lowering inflation." ET. "There has been a lot of theorizing why so many Americans feel worse off economically. True, real wages are now finally increasing, the labor market is great, the stock market is up, and consumers are spending. But none of this amounts to a complete picture of Americans' quality of life." "According to the US Department of Agriculture, spending on food took up more than 11% of income in 2022, the latest year for which data is available - the highest in 30 years." ET. In India, CPI inflation fell by 0.01% to 5.09% in February from 5.10% in January. ET.  While, expenditure on food fell to 46.4% of household budgets in rural areas and to 39.2% in urban areas in 2022-23, "marking it as the first instance where the number fell below 50% in rural India. On the contrary, share of expenditure on conveyance both in urban and rural areas experienced a sharp increase, making it the largest non-food sub-category." Outlook. In India, "Retail food inflation rose to 8.66% in February 2024 from 8.3% previous month due to sequential rise in vegetable and meat prices." "Annual food inflation in February 2023 was 5.95% on year." FE. Thus, not only do Indians spend around 40% of their household budget on food compared to 11% for Americans, the food prices in India rose 8.66% last month on top of a 5.95% rise in February last year. Partly, this is due to the reason why Indians are also spending more on conveyance, which is the enormous taxes on fuel. Meat and vegetables are transported by trucks which run on diesel. In Delhi, the price of diesel at the pump is Rs 89.66 per liter, while the price without tax is just Rs 58.15 per liter. cleartax.in. Taxes amount to Rs 31.51 per liter of diesel which is 54.19% of its cost. This is after, "Union minister for petroleum and natural gas, Hardeep Singhy Puri, announced...that the government forewent approximately Rs 2.2 lakh crore (Rs 2.2 trillion) in revenue due to cuts in excise duty on petrol and diesel from November 2021 to May 2022." TOI. In the US, "Luxuries becoming more commonplace was a big theme of the 20th century." "Once these luxuries became common, they ceased to be luxuries. Taking them away, or pricing them like luxuries, registers to many people as a big drop in their standard of living." For Indians, food is becoming a luxury. Also, traveling to buy that food.

An FTA with the EFTA.

"India has signed a free-trade agreement (FTA)" with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which consists of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Lichtenstein, and which "will see investments in India of $100 billion, the  country's trade minister says." BBC. "After 16 years of negotiations, involving 21 formal rounds," in which "India has promised to reduce tariffs to zero on 80-85 percent of goods from EFTA countries while receiving duty-free market access for almost 99% of goods, including rice." "However, investment by sovereign wealth funds is excluded from the investment obligation." BS. "Last year, India's trade with the EFTA nations was around $19 billion. Out of which $13 billion was just gold imports from Switzerland. Since no real benefits are offered on gold, the impact is going to be on the remaining $6-7 billion bilateral trade," wrote Prof Gulshan Sachdeva. In 2023, "India exported $422.23 billion worth of commodity and services, while imports stood at $625.87 billion till November." Forbes. $6-7 billion is therefore less than chump change. "Indian consumers may benefit from lower prices on seafood such as tuna and salmon; Swiss chocolate, biscuits, watches, medical equipment and energy drinks." That will be so exciting for all the 813.5 million Indians who will be provided with free food grains for the next 5 years under the PMGKAY scheme (pib.gov.in). Check for the lunch time on a Richard Mille watch worth Rs 182 million (GQ), eat salmon or tuna curry with PMGKAY free rice or chapati, along with a glass of energy drink, and finish off with a Swiss chocolate. What could be a more enjoyable meal? According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21, "there has been improvement in infant and child mortality rates. Stunting has reduced from 38.4% to 35.5%, wasting has reduced from 21% to 19.3% and the prevalence of underweight has reduced from 35.8% to 32.1%." However, anemia in women rose from 53% to 57% and in children (6-59 months) rose from 59% to 67%. DH. Last week, negotiators from the UK went back without any conclusion after 14 rounds of talks. India is apparently delaying an agreement until after the general election in the UK, which will take place in the second half of 2024 (wikipedia), expecting better terms from an expected Labour victory. Perhaps, the real reason is that "The UK is seeking major cuts in import duties on goods, such as scotch whiskey, electric vehicles, lamb meat, chocolates and certain confectionery items." If they reduce taxes on Scotch whiskey they will have to reduce taxes on Indian alcoholic drinks. Beer is taxed at 150% and whiskey starts at 300% and more than doubles as volumes rise. delhiexcise.gov.in. Union Minister for petroleum Hardeep Puri said that the government lost Rs 2.2 trillion in revenue because excise duty on petrol was cut by Rs 13 and by Rs 18 per liter from November 2021 to May 2022. TOI. As though we should prostrate ourselves in gratitude at the enormous favor. Just to remind the minister that petrol costs Rs 96.72 per liter in Delhi (News18), while the average cost of petrol in the US is about $3.5 per US gallon which works out to about Rs 76 per liter (eia.gov). Americans get to spend more of their earnings while our government spends our earnings. That's why Americans are rich. And we need free food grains.        

Public crimes.

"The Supreme Court will hear the application filed by the State Bank of India (SBI) seeking extension till June 30 to disclose details of each electoral bond encashed by political parties before the scheme was scrapped last month." "The contempt pleas, filed by NGOs Association for Democratic Reforms and Common Cause, claimed SBI's application  seeking extension of time has been deliberately filed at the last moment to ensure details of donor and the amount of donations are not disclosed to the public before the upcoming Lok Sabha elections." DH. The general election will be over in May (wikipedia) and a new government will have been sworn in by then, so, if Mr Modi succeeds in winning an overwhelming majority with 400 seats, as he is predicting (TIE), then he won't care. SBI is a public sector bank, but it is trying to deceive us, its owners, using our money. Is that a criminal offence? A trove of documents, "which transparency activist Commodore Lokesh Batra had shared with The Collective," revealed that the SBI, "on Union Finance Ministry's beckoning, was able to collate data on electoral bonds from across the country within 48 hours after the deadline to encash the bonds ended." The Wire. So, when SBI claims it will take months to match buyers with donors of the bonds it is being economical with the truth and perjury is definitely a criminal offence. With the election just days away, "The abrupt resignation of Arun Goel as Election Commissioner days before the expected announcement of the schedule for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has raised eyebrows, " as "Arun Goel's term was until November 2027 and he was slated to become the Chief Election Commissioner in 2025." HT. Apparently, insiders have hinted at differences between Goel and the Chief Election Commissioner (CEC) Rajiv Kumar during their visit to West Bengal but the reason is not known. TH. A sudden acute attack of honor or to stand as a candidate for the BJP in the coming election, as some opposition members allege (TOI)? The V-Dem Liberal Democracy Index (LDI) has ranked India at 104 out of 179 countries and "now situated between Niger (better) and Ivory Coast (worse)". As per the report, India is "one of the top ten autocratisers in recent times, with pulling down democracy at levels it was in 1975." The Wire. Who cares what foreigners say. But then, "Dumka gang-rape: The couple said in a video interview to Spanish TV Channel Antena 3 that the men raped her and hit the husband repeatedly." "Several foreign media also extensively covered the Dumka gang-rape incident." HT. In response, "Rekha Sharma, the chairperson of India's federal National Commission for Women lashed out...at a comment by US-based writer and journalist David Josef Volodzko," for his comments made in the context of the alleged gang-rape. Independent. Rape is an insignificant offence for this government. "Dera Sacha Sauda chief Gurmeet Ram Rahim Singh, who is serving a 20-year-jail-term in Rohtak's Sunaria jail for raping two disciples, has been granted a 50-day parole." This is the seventh time he has been freed in the last two years. HT. Haryana has a BJP-led government and the Chief Minister is from the BJP. wikipedia. India was represented as Bharat at the G20 summit in New Delhi. CNN. And, Bharat is worshiped as a Mata (Mother). wikipedia. Her children are being crushed by this regime. Cry our Mother.  

An impending rout.

"Surpassing the expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed." ET. "India's unemployment rate for persons aged 15 years and above declined to 3.1% in 2023, the lowest in the last three years, as per a report by the NSO under the statistics ministry." The rate was 3.6% in 2022 and 4.2% in 2021. BS. "Many economists consider an unemployment rate of 5% or lower to be maximum employment, or as close to full employment as is possible in the real world. This means employment is 95% or above." Investopedia. "GDP is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country's borders in a specific time period. As a broad measure of overall domestic production, it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country's economic health." Investopedia. A soaring growth rate of 8.4% means that the country's economy is bursting with health, and, with higher than maximum employment rate, it should mean that Indians are earning big bucks. Why then do, "Well-informed sources in Russia's picturesque capital claim that email boxes are overflowing of every official that is involved with immigration or who can help Indians or other outsiders to get a job with defence forces?" "Hundreds of thousands of young men all over India work toward joining the Indian Army in the fond hope that their earnings would be enough to uplift their cash-strapped families." But their aspirations have been crushed by the Agniveer scheme in which recruits serve in the Army for only 4 years and are then released "back to the grind of finding a job for themselves". If Indians are joining the Russian army individually, the states of Haryana and Uttar Pradesh (UP) have advertised for 10,000 construction workers each (AP) to work in another war zone, that is Israel. UP has finalized a list of 16,000. To show that construction isn't entirely safe when missiles are whizzing around, "The 31-year-old Indian man killed in a missile strike near the Israel-Lebanon border left his home in Kerala's Kollam just two months ago." Pat Nibin Maxwell died, while Paul Melvin and Bush Joseph George, also from Kerala, were injured and are in a hospital. You can qualify only as missile fodder when, "In a shocking video, students at Chandravati School in Haryana, India, were seen grabbing exam 'cheat sheets' reportedly from friends and family outside a school prior to a test being given to the students on March 6." Yahoo. GDP zooming at 8.4% and unemployment at 3.1%, which means an overflowing employment rate of 96.9%. Yet thousands would rather die in a foreign land than be a disposable Agniveer at home. Which also means, Dear Leader is predicting annihilating the opposition by winning 400 seats in the impending election. TIE. Not the opposition. Indians are a defeated people.

FPI or FDI.

"Indian bonds will be included on JP Morgan's GBI Emerging Markets bond index starting June, while Bloomberg has announced the incorporation of Indian bonds in its EM index from January 2025." "As India's sovereign debt nears inclusion in global bond indices, a diverse pool of international investors, ranging from long-term institutional funds in Japan, S Korea and Taiwan to exchange-traded funds in Europe, are setting their sights on the domestic bond market." ET. Foreign portfolio investors (FPI) have bought Rs 455.72 billion in India debt and, although equity has seen a net outflow of Rs 123.82 billion, the net investment into Indian markets has been Rs 407.83 billion in 2024, till 07 March. NSDL. "India's foreign exchange reserves are up by $6.55 billion to $625.63 billion for the week ending March 1, latest data by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) showed." Perhaps, to protect our exports from becoming too expensive because of the rupee strengthening against other currencies, "Foreign currency assets (FCAs) increased by $6.04 billion to $554.23 billion." ET. "India is eyeing $100 billion in annual foreign direct investment (FDI) 'in the next few years'," which is not much. "India attracted FDI inflows of $33 billion in the first six months of the current year that started in April 2023. It recorded FDI of $71 billion in the 2022-23 financial year." Reuters. FDI investments are considered to be long term, as opposed FPI inflows, which are considered to be 'hot money', that can leave as quickly as it comes in. Investopedia. Foreign firms may hesitate to invest in India because of protectionist policies. "The Indian government has consistently raised tariff and non-tariff barriers to protect domestic suppliers across most sectors and bolster indigenous production." trade.gov. The government may feel somewhat complacent because, "India has topped the list of remittance recipient countries in the world, with a total of $125 billion sent by Indians living in different parts of the world to their families in India." Forbes. This money is spent within India. Though electricity from solar and wind sources is much cheaper than that from coal, "the government now expects coal demand to increase by about 50% between now and 2030, when it's set to hit 1.5 billion metric tons." Because "Tariffs on imported solar panels have failed to incubate a viable domestic manufacturing sector, but have succeeded in raising costs for developers," wrote Tim Culpan. Meanwhile, "The European Union launched...the first phase of the world's first system to impose CO2 emissions tariffs on imported steel, cement and other goods." Reuters. UK negotiators left India without finalizing a free trade agreement (FTA) because "The minister in charge of signing off on the FTA pointed to India's protectionist economy in comparison with the UK's liberalized regime." News 18. Protectionism attracts hot money because of easy profits. Why bother with trade?

Down 36%.

In February, "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC),... kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth time in a row." "In addition, the central bank also left its inflation forecast for FY24 unchanged at 5.4%, despite food price rise concerns and uncertainty around crude cost." ET. "With the inflation trajectory coming down of late, there is a view that the repo rate should be cut. The argument given is that if this is not done, economic growth will get affected." However, "In the last 13 years starting from 2011-12, the repo rate has been above 6% in 10 years and at 4-4.4% in 3 years (during Covid)," and the real repo rate, which is the nominal interest rate minus the CPI inflation rate, (Investopedia) "was negative for 6 years, above 1.5% in 5 years, and 1% in one year." Growth in credit was 10.3% and GDP growth was 7.4% from 2014-15 to 2018-19 when the repo rate averaged 2.1%, but growth in credit fell to 8.8% and GDP growth averaged only 3.6% during Covid from 2019-20 to 2022-23 when the real repo rate was -1%. Credit growth is 16% this year the GDP is expected to grow 7.6% when the real repo rate is 1%. Therefore, the present repo rate at 6.5% is correct, concluded Madan Sabnavis. India's consumer price index (CPI) inflation was at 5.10% in January 2024 (TOI) and the RBI is predicting it at 5.4% for the full financial year. The RBI has been asked by the government to maintain CPI inflation at 4% with an occasional deviation of 2% on either side. ET. However, "India Core CPI Change was reported at 3.594% in January 2024." It fell from 3.888% in December 2023. CEIC. Since the inflation rate is calculated over the previous year, the rise in prices has been compounding. Which means that, with prolonged periods of negative real rate of interest, "Rs 1,00,000 in 2001 is worth just about Rs 27,000 now, all thanks to inflation". Value Research. That has eroded the buying power of the rupee and affected purchasing power of citizens, especially the poor. Hence, "The domestic fast-moving consumer goods  (cleartax) (FMCG) sector is poised for a period of 'subdued' growth up until the September quarter of the current calendar year, as per market research firm Kantar, highlighting the challenges of India's consumption story," Mint. Aided by the RBI's obdurate neglect of inflation, the rupee has collapsed from 60.95 in 2014, when this government first grabbed power, to 81.62 in 2022 against the US dollar. Forbes. One dollar buys Rs 82.72 today, a gain of 36%, (xe.com) after touching an all-time high of Rs 83.48 against the rupee on 11 November 2023. BS. So, "Gold has been a steadfast go-to option for investors and savings world over, especially in India. Not just investors, central banks have long banked on gold, its allure both reassuring and constant," wrote Somnath Mukherjee. When the rupee buys 36% less, don't spend on FMCG. Buy gold.     

Let the foreigners work it out.

"India's GDP grew 8.4% over a year earlier in the October-December quarter," but "Gross value added, which strips out indirect taxes and subsidies, is estimated to have grown 6.5%. The divergence was on account of net indirect taxes and is unlikely to be sustainable." NDTV. However, "Gross capital formation has been stagnant below its peak for a decade and private capex is still anemic.""Net FDI (foreign direct investment) as a percentage of of GDP now stands at 1.2%, its lowest since 2005. In comparison, Vietnam has absorbed net FDI inflows at an average rate of above 5% of GDP since 2007." FDI is necessary because it is sticky, provides patient capital for industrialization, increases total factor productivity, and spreads foreign technology to local firms, wrote Diva Jain. Naturally, "The stock market index keeps attaining new peaks, indicating investor optimism," because "the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Macroeconomic Indicators, conducted by the Reserve Bank of India, had predicted a GDP growth rate of 6-6.9% for this year ending in March, very recently." Forecasters cannot be out by almost 2%.  Also, consumption constitutes 55% of GDP and this has grown at an average of 3.5% over the last 11 years, according to the National Sample Survey, wrote Ajit Ranade. "India's economy has performed well and stronger-than-expected data in 2023 has caused us to raise our 2024 growth to 6.8% from 6.1%," said rating agency Moody's in its Global Macro Outlook 2024-25. "The statistics ministry also raised its GDP growth estimate for FY24 to 7.6% in its second revised estimate, up from 7.3%." Mint. For some unknown reason, "India's Chief Economic Advisor (CEA) V Anantha Nageswaran has prompted various agencies to reassess their projections for India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, advocating figures closer to 7% or higher for the fiscal year 2025." CNBC. Extremely weird. FY24 will start on 1 April 2024, and predicting growth rate till 31 March 2025 will need assumptions on variables, such as agriculture, which is dependent on a good, evenly distributed monsoon, global growth rate, which will influence our exports, and geopolitical events, which may cause supply disruptions, thus raising prices. A coalition government at the Centre following general election, and another pandemic scare were also mentioned by the RBI Governor. ET. India's Household Consumption Survey 2022-23 is flawed because of dubious data, because "Major problem: those surveyed have no incentives to tell the truth and many to fib." For instance, villagers in India, "If asked by fellow villagers, they will exaggerate to impress. If asked by outsiders, they will claim to be in deep distress, just in case that qualifies them for some freebie." And, "Most rich folk refuse to be interviewed, and the rest are economical with the truth," wrote Swaminathan S Anklesaria Aiyar. Instead of lecturing foreigners, why not publish absolute figures and let them work out the percentages? They are qualified enough to do that.

Better not to learn.

In February, "The Supreme Court...declared Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) councillor Kuldeep Kumar as elected to the post of Chandigarh mayor, upon finding that the presiding officer deliberately defaced eight votes cast in his favor, observing the court must step in such exceptional circumstances to ensure the basic mandate of electoral democracy, albeit at the local participatory level, is preserved." DH. Earlier, "High drama unfolded ...at the Assembly Hall of the Chandigarh Municipal Corporation (MC) after the presiding officer declared eight votes of Congress and AAP councillors invalid, paving the way for the BJP candidate Manoj Sonkar's victory in the mayoral elections." This was because of a video showing the presiding officer, Anil Masih, defacing some ballots. HT. And yet, "After its embarrassing defeat in the Chandigarh mayoral election, the BJP won the posts of senior deputy mayor and deputy mayor," because "the BJP had managed to get three AAP councillors to switch to its side, taking the party's strength in the 36-member house to 17." TIE. "The mainstream media's affection for the ruling party is a many-layered thing - and certainly one of the layers is the financial reward that flows seamlessly to the proprietors of media houses. Still, if "Match fixing in cricket has been severely condemned by the media time and again, so why is the permanent forbearance extended to the ruling party to steal, snatch, stitch together electoral victories based on a foundation of bribery, lies and sleight of hand?" asked Pamela Philipose. "India's Supreme Court...scrapped a seven-year-old election funding system that allows individuals and companies to make unlimited and anonymous donations to political parties." Needless to say, the BJP was the largest beneficiary. The court directed SBI (State Bank of India) "to furnish details of those who had bought them, and to provide information about bonds redeemed by each political party." Reuters. However, "State-run lender SBI has filed an application in the Supreme Court seeking extension of time till June 30 from 6 March to furnish information regarding Electoral Bonds." By which time the general election, which must be held in April-May, will be over and the result declared. wikipedia. SBI, a public sector bank is trying to protect the BJP with our money. A few days back, "The alleged gang rape of  a tourist with Brazilian-Spanish dual nationality in the eastern Indian state of Jharkhand has led to outrage." BBC. Instead of disgust and anger, "National Commission of Women chairperson...slammed a US-based writer for defaming India on social media in the context of a Spanish woman gang raped in Dumka." HT. Needless to say, Ms Sharma belongs to the BJP. wikipedia. "The Prime Minister Narendra Modi achieved an approval rating of 75%," according to a survey in February. NDTV. The BJP has exposed a nation of disreputable, deceitful, unprincipled, violent rapists and collaborators. Apparently, we are 'Vishwaguru' (teacher of the world). wikipedia. The world better not learn from us.

It's a pre-wedding.

"Anant Ambani and his wife-to-be Radhika Merchant's three day extravaganza saw Bollywood royalty rubbing shoulders with tech billionaires, sports superstars and even Donald Trump's daughter, Ivanka." "Airport authorities said nearly 130 fights had arrived for the event, ferrying the likes of Bill Gates and Mark Zuckerberg to the region." "Most of the guests stayed in luxury 'glamping' tents near the venue that offered a level of opulence that most would struggle to imagine," and guests "could reportedly choose from more than 500 dishes created by dozens of chefs from around the world." BBC. "As per a recent report by Daily Mail, the pre-wedding festivities hosted by Nita and Mukesh Ambani cost a staggering 120 million pounds (approximately Rs 1260 crore or Rs 12.60 billion) with catering contract alone, awarded to one of India's leading five-star hotel groups, rumored to be around 20 million pounds." HT. While we ordinary Hindus have never heard of pre-wedding, it appears that you can dress up for a whole series of bashes, if you have the moolah. Milan Magic. "Anant Ambani was spotted wearing a Richard Mille RM 56-02 in white sapphire. An ultra-rare, ultra-expensive watch with only 10 models in existence." "That's probably why the watch commands a price tag of $2.2 million or Rs 182 million (excluding taxes)." Even Mark Zuckerberg and his wife Priscilla Chan were impressed. GQ. There were singers and dancers to entertain this motley crowd of the super-rich and, naturally, they cost an arm and a leg. Barbadian singer Rihanna kicked off proceedings at $8-$9 million (Rs 660-740 million). Diljit Dosanjh came in at Rs 40 million, Arijit Singh cost Rs 50 million, while Akon was a snip at between $300,000 and $499,000 (Rs 20-40 million)." GQ. "In a strategic move, the Indian Air Force (IAF) has accorded international status to Jamnagar Airport for ten days," and "The IAF has not only granted international status but has also granted access to the airport's sensitive technical area," "to facilitate the execution of the events surrounding Anant Ambani and Radhika Merchant's pre-wedding." TOI. Of course, the IAF would not have such authority unless ordered to by the government. "In a rare case, the Narendra Modi government has given the international tag to the sensitive defence airport at Gujarat's Jamnagar town" close to the Pakistan border from 25 February to 5 March. The Wire. In 2013, President Jacob Zuma of South Africa got into trouble for allowing a chartered flight to land at Pretoria's Waterkloof Air Force base for a wedding in the (Indian) Gupta family. Reuters. South Africa has Namibia, Botswana, Zambia and Mozambique to the north, which are friendly nations, and is surrounded by the Indian Ocean in the South, East and West. Map. Whereas, Jamnagar is not very far for F16 fighter bombers taking off from Karachi in Pakistan. India Today. South Africa's president is accountable. Mr Modi is answerable to no one. Makes his own rules - even for Lord Ram. 

Are the Indian markets better?

In the last year, tech giants the 'Magnificent Seven' "are up by 80% on average, and account for more than half of all US stock market gains over that time." In the past small caps gained with the rest of the market but, "Now, the small caps are down and out." "India's bull market is, by contrast, a broad-based  classic." "While large cap stocks are gaining in India, medium and small caps have gained even more." "It's now even more expensive than US market and also less volatile, suggesting a very strong conviction on the part of investors that good times will roll on," cheered Ruchir Sharma. "Market participants believe that Indian equity markets will continue to command a valuation premium compared to the global peers, thanks to increased participation from the domestic investors, who are pumping in money in the local stocks through SIPs and direct investments." BT. "Both the Sensex and Nifty touched their record highs on Friday, March 1," as the Sensex rose by 1245 points to an all-time high of 73,745, while the Nifty also rose to a record 22,327, a rise of 344 points. HT. Both the indices opened even higher this morning before giving up some of the gains because of profit booking. "While the blue-chips rose at the open, the broader, more domestically focused small- and mid-caps dropped 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively, on rising concerns over excessive fund flows into the segments." Reuters. This rise in small caps is risky, wrote Vivek Kaul. "The BSE SmallCap Index stood at 7,004 points as on 2 January 2007. It doubled to 13,975 points by 7 January 2008 and then fell by almost four-fifths to 2,867 points by 9 March 2009." It reached 13,975 points only after 9 years on 16 March 2017. Retail investors could get badly hurt. In fact, "Indian households are investing more in stocks than it may seem," wrote Kaul. That is because the Life Insurance Corporation had invested in close to 300 stocks as of December 2023 and other insurance companies also invest in stocks. The Employees Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) invests 15% of contributions in exchange traded funds (ETFs). EPFO invested Rs 1.29 trillion in ETFs from April 2023 to March 2023. The National Pension System also invests in stocks. "India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) now ranks fifth in the world. And it is expected to reach third place by 2030." "However, on the basis of per capita income, India was ranked 161st in the early 1990s and is now 159th." That's because "The bulk of growth gains of the past three decades have been concentrated among a small segment of the population." But, though small, India's huge population means that even this number is large enough to attract foreign businesses, wrote Prof Maitreesh Ghatak. So is the Indian market better than the US market, or is it waiting to implode? It could well be decided by the US.   

We can't understand.

"Surpassing the expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed. The number for Q1, Q2 FY24 has also been revised upwards to 8.2% (against 7.8%) and 8.1% (against 7.6%) respectively." ET. "India collected Rs 1.68 lakh crore (Rs 1.68 trillion) as goods and services tax (GST) in February, up 12.5% from a year earlier, reflecting continued momentum in economic activity." "The total gross GST collection for the current fiscal year stood at Rs 18.40 lakh crore, which is 11.7% higher than the collection for the same period in FY2022-23." ET. Since GST is collected on the price of goods and services, the higher the price, the higher will be the collection. "The measure of economywide inflation is GDP deflator." "The nominal growth rate of GDP in current fiscal has been forecast at 9.1%, and the real growth rate rate at 7.6%. That means that GDP deflator has collapsed to 1.5%. "If economywide inflation had been marked at a higher level, that would have depressed real growth," wrote TK Arun. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation rate was 4.9% in October, 5.6% in November and 5.7% in December 2023. RI. These are the rise in prices over the same months in 2022. It is difficult for us to comprehend how the deflator is only 1.5%. "However, the consensus among economists is that this was primarily on the back of strong net tax collections and controlling of expenditure on subsidies by the government, something which could dissipate in the coming quarter. The view is that gross value added (GVA) which grew at 6.5% in the quarter, is a much better indicator of the economy's actual growth." DH. "The wide divergence between the GVA and GDP in the October-December quarter was mainly due to a sharp fall in subsidies in that quarter largely because of lower payouts on fertilizer subsidies like Urea," a senior government official said. "Government data showed fertilizer subsidies in the October-December quarter declined by nearly 70% to 307 billion rupees ($3.7 billion) from the same period a year ago." BT. "Investment remains the primary driver of growth, increasing by 10.6% year-on-year in the third quarter." "In contrast, consumption saw a modest increase of only 3.5%, falling below the overall growth rate, states the report." ABP. "The simple fact is: India badly, and perhaps desperately, needs a complete overhaul of the architecture of data collection, statistical sampling and subsequent interpretation," wrote Yashwant Deshmukh and Sutanu Guru. That is the real problem. The figures are confused. How can we possibly understand?   

It's as expected.

"Germany sees its faltering economy expanding by just 0.2% this year," "Euro-area private-sector activity hit an eight-month high," "Britain delivered the biggest budget surplus on record in January," and "Economists again marked down their US recession forecasts." "The (US) economy is seen expanding at a 2.1% annualized rate this year - up from 1.5% expected last month." "Deep in the snowy northern island of Hokkaido, Japan is pouring billions of dollars into a long-shot to revive its chip making prowess and insulate its economy from growing US-China tensions." ET. In the US "The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index rose 0.3% last month, the Commerce Department's Bureau of Analysis said." "In the 12 months through January, PCE inflation rose 2.4%." "Core inflation increased 2.8% year-on-year in January, the smallest advance since January 2021, after rising 2.9% in December." "Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of US economic activity, rose 0.2% after increasing 0.7% in December." ET. "Applications for unemployment benefits fell by 12,000 to 201,000 for the week ending Feb. 17." "The four-week average of claims, a less volatile measure, fell by 3,500 to 215,250, down from 218,750 the previous week." "In total, 1.86 million Americans were collecting jobless benefits." ET. "The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing index stood at 47.8% last month, down from 49.1% a month earlier." Manufacturing contracted for 16 months in a row. Services grew for the 13th straight month by 53.4% in January. ET. "Global debt levels hit a new record high of $313 trillion in 2023, with developing economies scaling a fresh peak." "The global debt-to-GDP ratio declined by around 2 percentage points to nearly 330% in 2023." "India, Argentina, China, Russia, Malaysia and South Africa registered the largest increases, signalling potential growing challenges in debt repayments." Reuters. Meanwhile, China continues its malevolent activities. "A trove of leaked documents from the Chinese state-linked hacking group has exposed extensive cyber intrusions conducted by Beijing's intelligence and military entities against foreign governments." "The leaked spreadsheet indicates breaches of 80 overseas targets, including 95.2 gigabytes of immigration data from India." ET. Following the anniversary of the Pulwama attack by a suicide car bomb killing 40 soldiers of the Central Reserve Police Force on 14 February (wikipedia), the Dawn wrote a timeline of events. On 26 February, "Indian aircraft intruded from Muzafarabad sector. Facing timely and effective response from Pakistan Air Force, released payload in haste while escaping which fell near Balakot. No casualties or damage." In response, "PAF shot down two Indian aircraft inside Pakistani airspace." On 1 March, Pakistan handed over Wing Commander Abhinandan Varthaman who had been shot down in Pakistani territory. BBC. No Pakistani pilot was captured by India. The US is defying pessimists. China is being nasty. Pakistan is gloating. All in character.