The larger the better.

"Overseas Indians sent home a record $29 billion by way of remittances in the December quarter as steadily climbing returns from FCNR (foreign currency-non resident) instruments have made such savings plans more lucrative than bank deposits in the West. To be sure, remittances are a source of permanent flows, unlike repatriable NRI deposits, and these help in narrowing the current account deficit (CAD), which has steadily shrunk as a percentage of India's gross domestic product (GDP)." ET. "India's CAD narrowed to 1.2% of GDP in the October-December quarter largely due to higher services exports, The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said. The CAD stood at $10.5 billion in the third quarter of financial year 2023-24 compared with $11.4 billion or 1.3% of GDP in the preceding quarter." ET. "As high-earning Indians settle abroad they're infusing billions into local economies." Indians are the largest diaspora as "according to the UN around 18 million Indians now live overseas". "The growing Indian diaspora is spending, saving and investing in a number of ways, both within India and across the world." "An especially big factor in this mass capital movement is remittance payments back to India, which hit a record of $125 billion in 2023, up from about $100 billion the year before." "Data from Pew Research Center in 2021 showed that amid a population of around 4.4 million, Indians born outside the US earn an average of $120,000 per year." BBC. "India's bulging pipeline of large block trades and listings such as the $3 billion IPO of Hyundai Motor's unit will draw more funds to a market whose share of global equity capital market deals hit a quarterly record this year, bankers say." "Indian companies raised $2.3 billion in the first quarter of 2024 in IPOs, according to LSEG data, up more than 12 times the $166.5 million raised in the same period last year." Reuters. "Riding on a bull run, equity investors became richer by Rs 128.77 lakh crore (Rs 128.77 trillion) in 2023-24 fiscal, driven by robust fundamentals of the Indian economy, increased investment inflows and promising corporate earnings." "The 30-share BSE Sensex climbed 14,659.83 points or 24.85% in 2023-24. The benchmark hit its all-time high of 74,245.17 on March 7." PTI. In all this flood of good news, "In 2022-23, FDI (foreign direct investment) equity inflows declined by 22% year-on-year to $46 billion." "In the 10-year period to 2022-23, the FDI grew at a CAGR of 6.6% compared to 27% in the previous 10-year period." "According to Ritesh Kumar Singh, a corporate economist and a former assistant director of the Finance Commission of India, foreign investors remain hesitant towards India due to uncertainties in tax regimes, bureaucratic hurdles, and difficulties in enforcing contracts." TNIE. What flows in can flow out, so "India's central bank will keep building its forex reserves as it seeks to build larger buffers and strong inflows into the country's equity and debt markets give it an opportunity to do so," as "FX reserves rose to a record high of $642.63 billion as of March 22." Reuters. Remittances and share market, is that it? May need large buffers. Very large.       

Data praised by ILO.

"India's top 1 percent income and wealth shares have reached historical highs and are among the very highest in the world, according to a paper released by the World Inequality Lab. By 2022-23, the top 1% income share in India was 22.6% and the top 1% wealth share rose to 40.1%, with India's top 1% income share among the very highest in the world, higher than even South Africa, Brazil and the US." TIE. "The paper, co-authored by economists Nitin Kumar Bharti, Lucas Chancel, Thomas Piketty, and Anmol Somanchy, said the country had reached its historical highs in the last financial year. Naming the paper the 'Billionaire Raj', the authors claimed that the country was now more unequal than even (during) the British Raj." MC. This has enraged the Bhakts (DH) who worship Dear Leader as the new Messiah, and the chamchas (wiktionary) who rush to defend their taxpayer-paid emoluments and perks bestowed on them by Dear Leader. The paper is all wrong because, "the authors have combined different sets of data and engaged in interpolations and extrapolations to arrive at their conclusions without reflecting much on the compatibility and consistency of data," wrote V Anantha Nageswaran & Diksha Supyal Bisht. They have used data from the Periodic Labout Force Survey (PLFS) and not from the recent Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 2022-23, the middle class is expanding and absolute poverty is going down. Both the PLFS and HCES are government surveys, so their data should have been 'compatible' and 'consistent' such that there would be no need for so many 'inter and extrapolations'. "In the 2022 report, in order to harmonize, analyse, and disseminate comparable international inequality data, collaboration with statistical institutions, tax authorities, universities, and international organizations were made. It acknowledged they 'lack basic information about inequality'," wrote Prof Atanu Biswas. However, not all government data is poor. The International Labor Organization's (ILO) 'India Employment Report' was "full of praise for the quality of data produced by the Indian government, based on which the UN agency has presented its findings." It says that "83% of the country's unemployed are its youth". The Print. Also, "In India, higher educated young people are more likely to be unemployed than those without any schooling," and "The jobless rate for graduates was 29.1%, almost nine times higher than the 3.4% for those who can't read or write." TOI. Totally irrelevant because, "According to a recent study published in Lancet, 70% of India's urban population is classified as obese and overweight," "just behind the US and China, in the list of top 10 countries with the highest number of obese individuals." ET. This shows a very high proportion of 'equality', being ignorant is an advantage and the unemployed educated youth will benefit by eating less. Clap, clap.    

It was deserved.

"A suicide bomber rammed a vehicle into a convoy of Chinese engineers working on a dam project in northwest Pakistan.., killing six people police said, the third major attack on Chinese interests in the South Asian country in a week. The first two attacks targeted a Pakistan naval air base and a strategic port used by China in the southwest province of Balochistan where Beijing is investing billions in infrastructure projects." "A blast on a bus killed 13 people, including nine Chinese nationals, in 2021." Reuters. A salute to the brotherhood of terrorists. Between China and Pakistan, "'All-Weather Strategic Cooperative Partnership' has grown into a towering tree with deep roots in the hearts of the two peoples. Chinese like to affectionately call the Pakistani friends 'iron brothers' while Pakistanis are used to describing Pakistan-China friendship 'as higher than mountains, deeper than sea, sweeter than honey and harder than steel'." CIIS. Too much honey between iron brothers explodes higher than mountains. "China has demanded a thorough probe into the deadly blast and security for its citizens after five Chinese nationals working on the Dasu dam project perished in a suicide bombing in Bisham." Dawn. "A Chinese company has halted civil works and let go of hundreds of workers at a hydropower project in Pakistan following a deadly suicide attack that claimed the lives of five Chinese nationals." ET. We Indians may be forgiven for enjoying this delicious irony. In 2017, China used its membership of the UN Security Council to block a bid by the US, France and Britain to list Maulana Masood Azhar, chief of Paksitan-based Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) militant group, as a global terrorist. Azhar was behind the terrorist attack on Pathankot Air Force station in January 2016. Mint. In 2019, China protected Azhar from being listed as a global terrorist for the fourth time (BT) despite a suicide car bomb attack at Pulwama in Kashmir which killed 44 soldiers of the Central Reserve Police Force (CRPF) on 14 February (wikipedia).  In 2022, "Beijing thwarted efforts to designate Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba leader Shah Mahmood as a global terrorist." TOI. In 2022, "On October 26 and 27, India hosted the United Nation's Security Council's Counter-Terrorism meetings," at which an audio clip was played of "Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) commander Sajid Mir directing terrorists in the attack on Chabad House in Mumbai" in the "November 2008 terror attacks in which 166 people were killed." In addition to Sajid Mir, China blocked sanctions on "LeT deputy chief Abdur Rehman Makki; JeM deputy leader Abdul Rauf, who is the brother of JeM chief Masood Azhar; deputy chief of the LeT front Falah-i-Insaniyat Foundation Shahid Mahmood; and LeT commander Talha Saeed, who is LeT chief Hafiz Said's son," wrote Sudha Ramachandran. The attack at Bisham could be a prelude. There could be more attacks on the Chinese in Pakistan, Afghanistan and in Xinjiang (BBC). Bastards deserve it.   

Bidding for growth.

"India has retained the title of the world's fastest growing major economy as it expanded 8.4% in the last three months of 2023, from a year earlier. The data comes as the country is set to hold a general election this year. BBC. The election will be held in 7 phases from 19 April to 1 June and results will be declared on 4 June." TOI. That will be a big yawn because Prime Minister Narendra Modi has already announced a landslide victory with a total of 400 seats out of 543 in the Lok Sabha. The News Mill. And why not, when eminent economists are bidding against each other to predict the rate of growth of India's economy? India can grow at 8% till 2047, if the country can redouble the good policies, said India's executive director at International Fund (IMF) Krishnamurthy Venkata Subramanian. DH. "And if India grows at 8%, India can become a USD 55 trillion by 2047," he added. As of 07 February, India is the fifth largest economy in the world with a nominal GDP of $4.112 trillion. Forbes. We are in 2024 which means there are 23 years to 2047. Hence at a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 8% our GDP should grow to $24.14 trillion by 2047. investor.gov. Not $55 trillion. "India needs to grow at 9-10 percent for the next three decades to become a USD 35 trillion by 2047, India's G20 Sherpa Amitabh Kant said." ET. That's chump change. "India can achieve a growth rate of 10% in the next decade and become the second-largest economy by 2032 and the largest by 2050, given the energies and transformation driving the nation to overcome its challenges, said RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra." ET. Anyone bidding more than that? Referring to the 8.4% growth rate, "Former chief economic advisor Arvind Subramanian...said India's GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend." BS. "They don't add up. I don't know what they mean," he said. Clean your glasses, man. "Well, if you are mystified, first you check whether the mist is on your glasses or somewhere else, said Dr Arvind Panangariya." ET. Excellent advice. Better still, consult an optician. "India is making a big mistake believing the 'hype' around its strong economic growth since there are significant structural problems that need to be fixed for the country to meet its potential, former central bank Governor Raghuram Rajan said." Such as "education and skills of the workforce". Horrified outrage. Dear Leader can walk on water. "NITI Aayog member Arvind Virmani,..said that Rajan sounded like 'parachute economists' who are cut off from ground realities." ET. Bhakts (DH) can fly without parachutes. "At the last count, there were over 10 million child laborers and 43 million children who were denied the right to an education," wrote Bhuwan Ribhu. Children do not vote. They do not count in the 400.

Honorable Washing Machine.

"After India summoned a senior US diplomat to lodge a protest over remarks on the arrest of Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal, Washington...stressed that it encourages fair, transparent, timely legal processes and 'we don't think anyone should object to that'." ET. Earlier, "India lodged a strong protest...regarding the German envoy's comments on the arrest of Arvind Kejriwal in the Delhi liquor policy case. The ministry of external affairs stated that the German envoy's remarks constituted a 'clear interference in India's internal affairs." ET. Delhi's elected chief minister has been arrested even though former Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia has been incarcerated in prison in the same case since 26 February 2023 without allegations against him being proven in court or any shred of evidence being produced to corroborate the allegations. Repeated applications for bail have been rejected by Delhi courts. India Today. But on what evidence? A short list of key opposition leaders, who could make a difference in the coming election, charged with unproven allegations has been compiled by Reuters. Since citizens are intimidated mute in a police state, foreign governments and media hint at their distaste. Congress leader Ramesh Chennithala labeled the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Prime Minister Narendra Modi a "washing machine" because those opposition leaders who have joined the BJP have seen criminal charges against them being dropped. The Wire. Demonstrating the power of the BJP, "Rameshbhai Chhotubhai Patel, a BJP MLA from Jalalpore, Gujarat, candidly mentioned a '2 percent' commission within the BJP system." He warned government contractors not to give money to anyone else. "He clarified his stance on graft in BJP system, stating that any contributions beyond the stipulated 2% were unacceptable." TNIE. Honorable corruption, as it were. In February, the Supreme Court "scrapped a seven-year-old election funding system that allows individuals and companies to make unlimited and anonymous donations to political parties, calling it 'unconstitutional'." Reuters. These were called 'Electoral Bonds'. So, who bought them? "Hyderabad-based Navayuga Engineering Company Ltd bought electoral bonds worth Rs 55 crore (Rs 550 million) - and every single one was redeemed by the BJP." The same company was building the Silkyara-Barkot tunnel in Uttarakhand which collapsed "trapping 41 laborers for 16 days, till they were pulled out by rat-miners." The Wire. Laborers rescued by rat-miners, company rescued by Electoral Bonds. P Saratha Reddy, who was arrested in the excise policy case. donated Rs 595 million to the BJP through Electoral Bonds. Initially he denied any link to Kejriwal but later turned approver for the government. Sisodia and Kejriwal have been imprisoned on his accusations. Reddy may have been washed clean. Very expensive 'Washing Machine'. But, is it honorable?  

Hurun List and hysterectomies.

"India's recent economic success, solid momentum, and promising prospects are making the country ever more influential both regionally and internationally. But the experience of other countries suggests that" "An action that makes sense domestically may conflict with what other countries expect from a systemically important economy. Meanwhile, actions that make sense internationally could complicate domestic economic progress," wrote Profs Mohamed A El-Erian & Michael Spence. "Improved capital formation in the economy, accompanied by various government measures, will generate more jobs opportunities in this decade than the previous one, chief economic advisor V Anantha Nageswaran said." ET. The previous decade, from 2014 till date, has been under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government since he won the Lok Sabha elections in 2014 and 2019. wikipedia. If it has not happened in ten years, why should we believe it will happen now? While we get a promise of jam tomorrow (wikipedia), "Mumbai has swiftly emerged as Asia's billionaire hub, surpassing Beijing for the first time, according to Hurun Research's 2024 Global Rich List," with 92 billionaire's to Beijing's 91. ET. "The Modi years have been exceptionally generous to the affluent." Their billions came "not by putting innovative products and services in global markets, but by carving up domestic industries such as transportation, telecom, power and gas, metals, retail, media and new energy. The Modi government rewarded large businesses with tax cuts and awarded them prize monopoly assets like airports. The billionaires got juicy deals when buying bankrupt firms and lobbied - often successfully - for protectionist trade policies. At the same time, India's rules on foreign direct investment protected the national team from muscular global rivals." Mint. According to a paper "titled 'Income and Wealth Inequality in India, 1922-2023: The Rise of the Billionaire Raj," "inequality in India now is worse than during the British Raj and is at its highest level in history," with "1% of the population owning as much as 40.1% of wealth and accounting for 22.6% of income in 2022-23." DH. The Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) found that 112 million jobs have been created between 2017-18 and 2022-23, but 37% of these 112 million were unpaid family workers (also known as self-employed helpers in household enterprises), wrote Abhishek Jha. The sugar industry in India runs on female slave labor. "Young girls are pushed into illegal child marriages so they can work alongside their husbands cutting and gathering sugar cane. Instead of receiving wages, they work to pay off advances from their employers," so that "An extreme yet common consequence of this financial entrapment is hysterectomies." "Hysterectomies keep them working, undistracted by doctor visits or the hardship of menstruating in a field with no access to running water, toilets or shelter." NYT. Hysterectomies have also to be paid for. Cut more cane.  
 

It's not about Putin.

On Friday, 22 March, in an attack on "Crocus City Hall, on the outskirts of Moscow - 20km (12 miles) from the Kremlin," "Video showed at least four people shooting randomly before proceeding to the concert hall itself and opening fire there." "By Sunday afternoon, at least 137 had been confirmed dead." "In addition to those killed, at least 60 remain in serious condition and authorities have warned more could die." BBC. "Taking responsibility for one of the worst terror attacks in Russia, the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) said that the mass shooting at the Moscow concert hall falls within the 'context of a raging war between Islamic State and countries fighting Islam'." "The terror organisation emerged in late 2014," and "has been named after an old term for the region that included parts of Iran, Turkmenistan and Afghanistan." Mint. "IS-K, believed to be operating out of Afghanistan" "has staged several attacks in Afghanistan as well as Pakistan. In January, it bombed the commemoration ceremony of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in Kerman, causing a high number of casualties." Dawn. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran are definitely not fighting Islam. "The United States warned Russian authorities earlier in March about a terrorist attack possibly targeting 'large gatherings' in Moscow, the White House said." NDTV. Given that the US and NATO are using Ukraine to destroy Russia, it is only natural that Russia is skeptical about US claims. Russian President Vladimir Putin said that "some people on the 'Ukrainian side' had been prepared to spirit the gunmen across the border." "Russia's foreign ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova questioned the veracity of the claim." "She referenced past involvement with Mujahideen fighters in Afghanistan during the Soviet era, hinting at historical precedent for skepticism." TOI. On 7 October 2023, Hamas attacked a music festival at the Supernova Sukhot Gathering in Israel killing 364 civilians and taking 40 hostages. wikipedia. Islamists love to kill. Israel was apparently warned 3 days before the attack, claimed House of Representatives Foreign Affairs Committee head Michael McCaul. "Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu described the reports as 'absolutely false'." BBC. So, did the US learn of the Moscow attack from online chatter or because some friends in Ukraine provided logistics support and were ready to assist in the escape? The US media is quick to use the tragic deaths of so many innocent people to score points against Putin. "Terrorist attack exposes vulnerabilities of Putin's regime. WP. "Appalling Moscow terror attack is a blow to Putin, who promised Russia security." CNN. "Deadly Moscow Attack Shatters Putin's Security Promise to Russians." NYT. If anything can be lower than the gutter press then this is it. However, we will not laugh at the CIA for the 9/11 attacks in the US (Britannica). There is nothing more innocent than enjoying a concert but "the Darul Uloom at Deoband in northern India" "has ruled that 'the most important reason' why music is forbidden in Islam 'is that the Quran and Hadith have forbidden it'." BYU Law. Just an excuse to kill. Indians beware.

Catch 22 of power.

"Bitcoin may be 'here to stay', but that still does not justify its adoption as a currency." "Humans have always assigned a value to various eclectic goods," and Bitcoin's price is a reflection of a cap on the total number of Bitcoins possible, wrote Srinath Sridharan. "That maximum supply of Bitcoin (BTC) is capped at 21 million," and already "19.6 million Bitcoin's are in circulation." "Currently, each block reward is 6.25 BTC." "In a nutshell, Bitcoin halving reduces the BTC rewards that miners receive for successfully validating a block. This is reduced by 50%." "The next halving will occur around April 2024," and "the block reward for mined BTC is expected to be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC." techopedia. "In a landmark development for the cryptocurrency industry, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has greenlit the establishment of Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) by investment funds, signalling a potential revival for the world's largest cryptocurrency token by market capitalization." Mint. However, the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) wants a ban on all cryptocurrencies, ostensibly because it "is a form of gambling without any underlying value". India Today. How caring! This is the same Governor who stuck to an interest rate of 4% for 24 months, from May 2020 to May 2022 (Forbes) even while consumer price (CPI) inflation raged from a low of 4.1% to a high of 7.8% (RI) thus inflicting extreme financial repression on citizens, to support the government. "Financial repression is a term that describes measures by which governments channel funds from private sector to themselves," because "overall policy actions result in the government being able to borrow at extremely low interest rates, obtaining low-cost funding for government expenditures." "These measures are repressive because they disadvantage savers and enrich the government." Investopedia. "Unlike traditional currencies, Bitcoin lacks elasticity in its supply, making it inherently deflationary." High inflation helps the government reduce its debt by increasing tax collection through VAT or GST and the value of debt falls as the value of the currency declines. Economics Help. As proof, the value of the rupee has fallen from about 61 to one dollar in 2014, when this government grabbed power, to around 83 to one dollar presently. Forbes. Even as it wants a ban on Indians purchasing cryptocurrencies, "On July 5, 2023, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI)'s Inter-Departmental group (IDG) presented a roadmap for internationalizing India's currency," wrote Prof Dr. M. Jayadev. There are 200 cryptocurrencies at present with varying market capitalization. Coinmarketcap. If the rupee becomes truly international how will the RBI stop citizens rushing to buy Bitcoins or the US dollar to guard against RBI's repressive policies? You can either protect the wealth of citizens or you can loot them, can't do both. This is Catch 22 of total power. Megalomania.  

Brothers in arms.

"Mark Milley, former Joint Chiefs of Staff chairman, and Kenneth McKenzie, who led US Central Command," and who "led the chaotic US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021 have testified to Congress." Predictably, "they said that both the Biden and Trump administrations had had a role in the disastrous withdrawal, as had the administrations that preceded them." "Afghanistan President Ashraf Ghani's decision to flee the country as the Taliban marched toward Kabul was then 'the straw that broke the camel's back'." BBC. In short, everyone except the US army, which is very adept at indiscriminate killing, but flees in total panic in defeat, as it did from Saigon in Vietnam in April 1975. Britannica. Stories to whitewash the rout as a heroic withdrawal are belied by photographs from that time showing the total disarray. google. Surely, the generals are responsible for, "Approximately $7 billion of military equipment the US transferred to the Afghan government over the course of 16 years was left behind in Afghanistan after the US completed its withdrawal," and "The equipment is now in a country that is controlled by the very enemy the US was trying to drive out over the past two decades: the Taliban." CNN. Naturally, the Taliban "fired heavy weapons at Pakistani forces along the border in retaliation" after Pakistani air strikes in Afghanistan killed 5 women and 3 children. Reuters. On 16 March, "Militants attacked a military post in Pakistan near Afghanistan" "killing seven security force members, Pakistan's military said." "Pakistani government and security officials say attacks have risen in recent months, many of them claimed by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) and launched from Afghan soil." Reuters. Pakistan should have been more careful because they got what they wished for (idioms). "The Pakistani establishment was ecstatic at the Taliban victory in Afghanistan in August 2021. Having backed them for over 25 years, they expected a friendly, if not pliable regime in Kabul." But, "much to Pakistan's chagrin, the Taliban government has repeatedly questioned the Durand Line as the border between the two countries. There have been instances of Afghan forces damaging the fence erected by Pakistan along it." "Frustrated with Taliban response, Pakistan" "imposed restrictions on Afghan transit trade through its territory," "threatens to introduce visas for Afghans to enter its territory," and "expelled around half a million Afghans living illegally on its soil without due process and compensation," wrote Sharat Sabharwal. Pakistan's chagrin is doubled because its 'good Taliban' has turned rogue. "Once lauded as the 'good Taliban' for refraining from carrying out attacks against Pakistan's security forces, (Hafiz Gul) Bahadur's group finds itself labeled 'bad Taliban' due to its role in the recent terror attacks in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa's southern region." Dawn. The Taliban was born from the Mujahideen in the early 1990s and the Mujahideen were supported by the US and Pakistan. CFR. Both the US and Pakistan are losers. Generals Milley and McKenzie should be proud. After all, they are brothers in arms.   

Beware of Americans bearing gifts.

"India's investigation into US claims of an attempted murder of a Khalistani separatist in New York found that rogue operatives not authorized by the government had been involved in the plot, according to senior officials." "New Delhi has informed US authorities about the findings from the government-appointed panel set up to probe the allegations." ET. Such haste is almost indecent because it was only in November 2023 that "Nikhil Gupta, 52, has been charged with murder-for-hire, which carries a maximum sentence of 10 years," as "US authorities said Gupta agreed to pay an assassin $100,000 to kill the Khalistani separatist leader living in New York City." ET. Hoping to apply a band-aid to the embarrassment, "An intelligence operative has been removed from his position and several others were reshuffled following an investigation into US claims of an alleged plot to kill Khalistani leader Gurpatwant Singh Pannun." HT. But, were the operatives "not authorized"? "Days after Canadian national public broadcaster CBC released a footage of Khalistani separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar's fatal killing, the Centre reportedly asked video streaming site YouTube to ban the video from viewing in India, a report claimed." ET. But why? "India has rejected allegations made by the Canadian government linking it to the assassination of Khalistani leader Hardeep Singh Nijjar. In a statement, the ministry of external affairs (MEA) termed the allegations 'absurd' and 'motivated'." TOI. Why ban something which is absurd? Mystery. Also, why bend to US demands while dismissing Canadian claims? Maybe because the US is one of very few countries with which we have a positive trade balance. "US goods and services trade with India totaled an estimated $191.8 billion in 2022. Exports were $73.0 billion; imports were $118.8 billion. The US goods and services trade deficit with India was $45.7 billion in 2022." ustr.gov. On 20 March, "The US government recognizes Arunachal Pradesh as part of India and 'strongly opposes' any unilateral attempts to advance territorial claims in the northeastern Indian state that shares a border with China, the US State Department said." Reuters. The next day China "said it firmly opposes the US recognition of Arunachal Pradesh as part of India territory," and "also accused the US of 'instigating and using other countries' disputes' for selfish geopolitical interests." ET. Ominous. "A top US admiral has issued a stark warning about China's military and nuclear ambitions, indicating that Beijing is ramping up its military and nuclear capabilities to levels unseen since World War II," "highlighting China's readiness to invade Taiwan by 2027." ET. On the other hand, "An assessment by US intelligence agencies warns of a 'potential' armed conflict between India and China amid large troop deployments by both sides." HT. US President Joe Biden may have pledged to defend Taiwan against an attack by China  (Reuters) but would much prefer India to bear the brunt of a Chinese attack. US trade and support are welcome but we should remember the old adage of 'Beware of Greeks bearing gifts' (wikipedia). Or Americans.

A panacea for all problems.

"Fertility rates in nearly all countries will be too low to sustain population levels by the end of the century, and most of the births will be occurring in poorer countries, according to a study." "Over three-quarters of live births will occur in low- and lower-middle-income countries by the end of the century, with more than half taking place in sub-Saharan Africa." "The global fertility rates - the average number of births per woman - has fallen from around 5 children in 1950 to 2.2 in 2021, data show." Reuters. 2.2 is almost the replacement level of fertility. "Replacement level fertility is the level of fertility at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next." In developed countries it is 2.1 per woman but in countries with high infant mortality rates it can be much higher. NIH. It is also a fact that total fertility rate (TFR) declines with rising levels of education in women. In India, "At the national level, TFR for women having educational status 'illiterate' in 2018 was 3. This is much higher than the literate group which has a TFR of 2.1" TOI. Except for just 4 states, Bihar, Meghalaya, Jharkhand and Uttar Pardesh (UP), all other states of India had a TFR well below 2 in 2024. findeasy.in. India's TFR will collapse to 1.29 in 2050, warned a study in Lancet. This may lead to challenges such as "an aging population, labor force shortages, and potential social imbalances due to gender preferences." TOI. Since April 2023, India is estimated to have surpassed China to become the most populous country in the world and is expected to keep growing for the next few decades. BBC. China's population declined for two years in a row to reach 1.409 billion at the end of 2023, a decrease of 2.08 million from 2022." BBC. "Many hospitals in China have stopped offering newborn delivery services this year," and "the number of maternity hospitals dropped to 793 in 2021 from 807 in 2020." Reuters. But, "In 2023 there were 7.68 million newlyweds in the country, 12.4% more than in the previous year, data shows." BBC. However, China is not unique. In South Korea, "A total of 193,657 couples got married last year, up 1.0% from 191,690 a year earlier and the first increase since 2011." Reuters. Even in the US, "in 2020, the marriage rate was down to 5.1 per 1,000 people," but "by 2022, the number of marriages had reached 6.2 per 1,000 and over 2 million in a year." Number of divorces fell to 2.4 per 1,000 in 2022. CNN. In India, although 86.8% of children in the age group 14-18 years are enrolled in educational institutions, 25% of them "cannot read a Class-2 level text fluently in their regional languages", according to the latest report by the Annual Status of Education Report (ASER). More than half of them struggle with simple division problems. DH. Fewer people will mean less demand for food, housing and natural resources. There will be no shortage of water as Bengaluru is experiencing at present (NDTV). As for an aging population, rapid advances in robotics and Artificial Intelligence may fill the demand for labor. And, fewer people will allow forests to regrow and stop, or even reverse, global warming as happened in the Americas when Europeans began to settle there (India Today). A TFR of 1.29 will be a panacea for all our problems. Those born in 2050 will be lucky. 

Classic or froth.

"The (US) Federal Reserve held interest rates steady on Wednesday (yesterday), but policymakers indicated they still expect to reduce them by three-quarters of a percentage point by the end of 2024 despite stodgier expected progress towards the US central bank's 2% inflation target." "The Fed's new policy statement described" "consumption expenditures price index excluding food and energy rising at a 2.6% rate by the end of the year", "Growth is seen at 2.1% for the year" and "the unemployment rate is seen ending the year at 4%." ET. In reaction, "US stock markets hit record highs," as "The S&P 500 rose 0.8%, finishing at 5,224.62," "the Dow Jones Industrial Average popped about 1% to close at a record of 39,512," and "The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite led the gains, rising more than 1% to close at a record level of 16,369." yahoo. The US  market "is all about one big sector, tech, and within that sector," "the Magnificent Seven are up by 80% on average, and account for more than half of all US stock market gains over that time." "India's bull market is, by contrast, a broad-based classic," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Indeed, "Nvidia's stock price jumped 16% to $785.38...increasing the company's market value by a staggering $277 billion in just a single day, setting a new record." The single-day surge was more than the entire market capitalization of all listed IT companies in India at approximately $260 billion and that of India's most valuable company Reliance Industries, valued at about $240 billion. Mint. Whereas the US market regulator the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) which "is an independent federal government regulatory agency responsible for protecting investors" (Investors) seems unperturbed, India's market regulator the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) (wikipedia) "chief Madhabi Puri Bach...flagged 'froth' in small and mid-cap stocks, referring to the 'off the charts' valuations in these market segments." "Her comments come at a time when the small and mid-cap shares have outperformed major indices." TOI. "Stocks are riding an intense bull market - notwithstanding intermittent corrections - driven by a broad-based boom. With large caps gaining, mid- and small-caps are rising even faster, with hints of froth and a spreading equity culture," said the monthly bulletin from the Reserve Bank (RBI). MC. "The shares of income and wealth of India's top 1% at 22.6% and 40.1% respectively is at their 'highest historical levels' in 2022-23, beating even developed economies such as the US, according to a paper released by the World Inequality Lab." MC. Stock market froth is necessary to increase the wealth of Dear Leader's friends but Dear Leader will not be best pleased if it pops just before general election, starting on 19 April (wikipedia). While the US Fed is trying for a soft landing of the economy, our regulators are trying for a soft landing of stock markets. Till the election is over.     

Manhattan, half of Bandra.

"Land is getting hard to find in a sprawling industrial park in southern India where workers are scrambling to build modern new warehouses and factories for companies betting on the country's economic boom or diversifying their supply chains beyond China." "Businesses in India have traditionally relied on dingy, stuffy low-rise sheds known as godowns for their storage needs, but these are unsuited to the needs of foreign industrial giants," "So developers such as Greenbase are scouting for land nationwide, as they grapple with thorny acquisition issues." Reuters. Land is the biggest problem. Recently , "an office tower in New York's upmarket Manhattan was sold at a 70% discount." The tower sold for $500 million in 2014, but for only $150 million this time. Banker Uday Kotak said that "at Rs 16,000 per sq ft, the price of the said New York property is less than half the rate at Mumbai's upmarket Bandra Kurla." NDTV. India has a population of 1.438 billion people and it is growing. worldometer. Crammed in about 1.27 million sq miles. wikipedia. The US has a population of about 341 million people (worldometer), less than one-fourth the population of India, in 3.53 million sq miles (wikipedia), nearly 3 times the size of India. More factories and warehouses mean less land for growing food. In January 2024, "Union Minister Piyush Goyal...said there is no proposal before the government as of now to lift export curbs on wheat, rice and sugar." ET. This is to increase domestic supplies and thus suppress prices, but is grossly unfair as it transfers farmers' profits to consumers. "A population of over a billion people, a young demographic keen on spending, and recent optimism have all fostered the belief that India is on the cusp of a consumer boom." "By 2030, India will have an estimated 227 millennials (those born during 1981-1996) and 374 million Gen Z (born 1997-2010) persons." "The next major trend - when it occurs - will be towards products that offer convenience, sustainability, value-for-money; with AI-driven features and app-based options to customize the experience," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. But will every Indian join in the consumer boom? "India's top 1% owned more than 40.5% of its total wealth in 2021," while the bottom 50% owned only 3%. BBC. "Researchers in India and the UK who used Poshan data from September 2023 have noted" "that 39% of around 83 million children in the anganwadi centers in September 2023 had experienced stunting." "18% were underweight and 6% experienced wasting." Telegraph. With limited land and a growing population it may come to a choice between factories and warehouses, not to forget new homes for living in, on the one hand and agriculture on the other. A choice between consumption of luxuries or a consumption of food. Like now. Perhaps worse.      

Of bonds plus trust.

"The electoral bond data provides revelations which everybody suspected for a long time: of a nexus between industry and politics, to the detriment of citizens." "One, the quid pro quo between political donations and award of government contract is out in the open," and two, "the proliferation of shell companies as a platform for the nifty routing of funds for political purposes." Mint. "One such opaque arrangement involved the use of small, nondescript group companies as pass-throughs, as the case of Kolkata-based Madanlal Ltd shows." "Madanlal Ltd bought electoral bonds for Rs 186 crore (Rs 1.86 billion)," "on 8 and 10 May 2019, preceding the last two stages of the 2019 general elections that saw voting for 118 seats, including 17 from West Bengal." Madanlal Ltd's total income in 2021-22 was just Rs 30 million. pressreader. So who did all that money go to? To the Trinamool Congress (TMC) which won 215 seats out of a total of 294 seats in the Assembly elections in 2021 or to the BJP which gained a whopping 74 seats for a total of 77 seats? wikipedia. In the general election of 2019 the BJP gained 16 seats while the TMC lost 12. wikipedia. Out of a total of Rs 165.18 billion worth of Electoral Bonds purchased, the BJP redeemed Rs 82.518 billion, which is just under 50%, while the Congress was a distant second with Rs 19.52 billion and the TMC third with Rs 17.05 billion. The Wire. At every step the State Bank of India (SBI), a public sector bank, has sought to delay releasing information on the bonds by releasing the minimum required so as not to earn the Supreme Court's (SC) ire. In 2018, investigative journalist Poonam Agarwal bought two bonds which revealed unique alphanumeric numbers under UV rays. The Wire. The SBI did not disclose the buyer and recipient of each unique number. The 5-judge bench of the SC ordered the chairman of SBI to file an affidavit by 5 pm on 21 March proving the alphanumeric and serial numbers of all bonds have been disclosed. TOI. Will the SBI link the buyer and recipient with each number or will it wait for another appeal and further waste of time? Surprisingly, the President of the Supreme Court Bar Association (SCBA) Adish Aggarwala wrote a private letter to the Chief Justice DY Chandrachud pleading that releasing the names of donors may render companies vulnerable to victimisation. The judges dismissed it as "publicity-related". Who is he trying to protect? Meanwhile, an obscure electoral trust, "The Prudent Electoral Trust has raised $272 million since its creation in 2013, funneling roughly 75% of that to Prime Minister Narendra Modi's Party." Reuters. Just three days back Mr Modi promised "anyone indulging in corruption will not be spared". India Today. "With an approval rating of 78%, PM Narendra Modi has once again emerged as the most popular leader in the world, a Morning Consult survey said." TOI. Which means 78% of Indians believe what Mr Modi says. What about the 22% who don't? Can they convince the Bhakts (DH)? 

Unlikely to happen.

 "An assessment by US intelligence agencies warns of a 'potential' armed conflict between India and China amid large troop deployments by both sides and sporadic encounters between their militaries, adding the border dispute 'will remain a strain' on ties between the neighbors. The assessment further states that China is looking to establish military bases at multiple locations - including Sri Lanka and Pakistan - in its attempt to 'project power' and 'protect China's interests abroad." HT. India has deployed, "A 10,000 strong unit of soldiers previously assigned to the country's western border has now been set aside to guard a stretch of its frontier with China," and "In addition, an existing contingent of 9,000 soldiers, already designated to the disputed Chinese border, will be brought under the newly created fighting command." ET. True, India was defeated and humiliated and lost a significant amount of territory in the 1962 war with China (Britannica), but that was then. In June 2020, 45 Chinese soldiers were killed in hand-to-hand fighting with Indian soldiers in the Galwan Valley in Ladakh. India Today. Besides, an army full of 'Little Emperors' of China's one-parent families (NPR) may not have the appetite for a bloody conflict. The US seems to wish a war between India and China. Why? Maybe, because it is terrified of having to fight China. The war in Ukraine was deliberately engineered by the expansion of NATO (Britannica) despite western propaganda vilifying Russian President Putin. "Fast forward two years and hopes of a Ukrainian victory look diminished and increasingly hollow, as do Western pledges to support Ukraine 'for as long as it takes'." CNBC. "The Joe Biden administration and the US Congress have directed about $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine, which includes humanitarian, financial, and military support, according to the Kiel Institute for the World Economy." CFR. In addition, "The US Navy is encountering a tenacious threat in the Red Sea." "Although the Navy has invested heavily in anti-air technology, including most notably the Aegis combat system for the past several decades, the most effective missiles are also the most expensive and most difficult to produce." And, "China's rocket troops can potentially field thousands of missiles that can reach across wide swaths of the Pacific." CNBC. This is relevant because, "US President Joe Biden has warned China that the US will defend the Philippines in case of any attack in the disputed South China Sea." BBC. Then there is the fear of a Trump return. "It has become rank heresy in liberal circles to define Donald Trump as anything but the second coming of Hitler, or at least Mussolini." "Yet, during Trump's first presidency, no new major wars were started, a first for any administration since the onset of the national security state 80 years ago." Dawn. The deep state in the US (wikipedia) is terrified of being found for what it is - a deep rot in the US government and society. If it can somehow get China to concentrate on India it will take away a major stress on the US. And give it time. Sadly, it's not going to happen.    

A clear, well-trodden path.

"Four years after it was passed, the BJP-led government has now notified the rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) of 2019. This comes ahead of general elections to be held next month." Quint. "Sporadic protests have broken out across the country after the Prime Minister Narendra Modi-led government implemented the CAA on March 11. The law, which has faced criticism for alleged discrimination against Muslims, was put into effect just days before the announcement of the Lok Sabha Elections 2024." Mint. There were protests in Tamil Nadu, Assam and West Bengal. "The Home Ministry's March 11 notification,...has sparked a surge in fresh petitions filed against the CAA in the Supreme Court." "Over 200 petitions challenging the Act are pending in the Supreme Court since December 2019. With a substantial number of petitions lined up for review, the apex court is preparing for a thorough of the CAA and its rules." FM. Still preparing? The Court has not found time to judge a matter of such constitutional importance in 4 years. "If you hear comments from many parts of the world, it is as if the partition of India never happened, there were no consequential problems which the CAA is supposed to address," External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar. "Union Home Minister Amit Shah has reiterated that CAA is a law to provide citizenship rights and it will not snatch away citizenship from anyone." newsonair.gov.in. However, the biggest support for the CAA came from the Taliban. "In its first reaction to the implementation of the CAA in India, the Taliban's head of political office in Doha, Suhail Shaheen, said that any such law should be for all 'irrespective of religion', even as he denied that there was any persecution of minorities in Afghanistan." The Wire. That is hilarious, indeed. In 2022, "The Taliban has ordered judges in Afghanistan to fully impose their interpretation of Sharia Law," so that "Women in Afghanistan can no longer work in most sectors and require a male guardian for long-distance travel, while girls have been barred from returning to secondary school." CNN. "In Arabic, Sharia literally means 'the clear, well-trodden path to water'. Sharia acts as a code for living that all Muslims should adhere to, including prayers, fasting and donations to the poor." BBC. Since these rules are from the Quran and for everyone living in Afghanistan it means that minorities are being forced to follow Islam. All women must be covered from head to toe in a Burqa, including women of minorities, (BBC) even though their religions do not have any such provision. The Taliban should be careful. If India allows citizenship for Muslims, a large number of Afghan women might choose to escape to India. Their objection is a clear, well-trodden path for the CAA. Our government must be pleased.   

Need mystifying growth.

"The Indian economy is likely to transition to an upper-middle income country, with per capita income of $4466, between the financial years 2033 and 2036, Indian Ratings and Research said." "Until 2006, the World Bank classified India as a low-income country. In 2007, India moved to the lower middle-income country and since then has remained there." DH. "Investment has emerged as a significant contributor to India's thriving economy, according to economists at Morgan Stanley. They also noted that the nation's current growth trajectory mirrors that of the mid-2000s, a period characterised by an average growth rate beyond 8%." ABP. "Surpassing the expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against an 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed." ET. But, "Indian industrial activity in January grew at a weaker-than-expected rate of 3.8% year-on-year on the back of slowdown in manufacturing and mining activity, government data showed." "Manufacturing activity in January rose 3.2% year-on-year, slower than 4.5% in the same month the previous year." Reuters. India's merchandise exports grew by 12% to $41.4 billion and cumulative exports in the 11 months between April 2023 and February 2024 stood at $395 billion. Services exports in February were $32.15 billion and in 11 months to February were $314.82 billion. HT. "India's forex kitty jumped by USD 10.47 billion to USD 636.095 billion for the week ended March 8, the Reserve Bank (RBI) said," while, "the foreign currency assets, a major component of the reserves, increased by USD 8.121 billion to USD 562.352 billion." BS. Net investment by Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) into equity and debt from 1 January to 15 March stood at Rs 75695 crore (Rs 756.95 billion) which would convert to about $9 billion. NSDL. With the RBI buying so much foreign currency, the resultant increase in liquidity has suppressed yields on 10-year bonds to 7.062 on 15 March. It had fallen to a low of 7.014 on 11 March. investing.com. However, "Former chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian...said India's latest GDP numbers are 'absolutely mystifying' and difficult to comprehend." "Elaborating further Subramanian said while the implied inflation in these numbers is 1 to 1.5 percent, actual inflation in the economy is somewhere between 3 and 5 percent." ET. Perhaps, even higher (RI). "Economist Sanjeev Sanyal...said India needs to sustain the current growth momentum to reach the "bottom echelons" of being considered a developed country." As "developing fast in imperative, because by 2047, India would have aged and be in the same place as China is right now." ET. "China's population fell for a second consecutive year in 2023 (Reuters)" because the fertility rate fell to a record low of 1.2, much below the replacement level of 2.1, in 2021 (World Bank). Can India become a developed country by 2047? Yes, if its growth rate remains "mystifying". 

Don't dare to say it.

"The results of News 18 Mega Opinion Poll covering 21 states, 518 constituencies and over one lakh respondents continued on the second day...According to the survey, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to win 411 seats in the upcoming Lok Sabha elections. The survey also predicted 25 out of 28 seats for NDA in Karnataka, 12 out of 14 seats in Assam, 25 out of 42 seats in West Bengal and a clean sweep in Rajasthan and Uttarakhand. News18. Since the consecration of the Ram temple on 22 January "the risks are rising disproportionately for Modi. The autocratic leader will likely still be India's next prime minister, but his party's goal of winning 370 parliamentary seats out of 543 is looking like a tall order," wrote Andy Mukherjee. First, the returning officer in the mayoral poll in Chandigarh Anil Masih was seen on video marking ballot papers to make them invalid so as to ensure the BJP candidate won. HT. This may stop returning officers resorting to overt cheating in the parliamentary polls. Second, the Supreme Court forced the State Bank of India (SBI) to hand over details of Electoral Bonds to the Election Commission (EC) and ordered the EC to upload the details on its site by 5 pm on 15 March. BS. The list shows that the major contributions were from unknown companies and the BJP received more than all others combined. TN. Whether the list passes the smell test is for the court to decide. Third, "In a shock move weeks before the Lok Sabha polls, Election Commissioner Arun Goel has quit and his resignation has been accepted by the President." NDTV. Promptly, "The three-member selection panel headed Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Thursday (March 14) appointed two former Indian Administrative Service (IAS) officers - Gyanesh Kumar and Sukhbir Singh Sandhu - as election commissioners." The Wire. The Chief Election Commissioner Rajiv Kumar is also a retired IAS. wikipedia. So now all 3 are from the IAS. Two IAS officers - Hasmukh Adhia and Tapan Ray - were responsible for Electoral Bonds becoming law over the objections of the Reserve Bank (RBI). Adhia was made chairman of the Bank of Baroda and Ray became chairman of the Central Bank of India, both public sector banks, after retiring. The Wire. The then Governor of the RBI Urjit Patel resigned on 10 December 2018, one year prematurely (NDTV) to be replaced by a retired IAS officer Shaktikanta Das whose tenure has since extended by another 3 years (wikipedia). What makes IAS officers so attractive for Mr Modi in key constitutional posts? Mr Modi is not resting solely on ex-IAS officers, though. Rules for the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) 2019 were suddenly notified on 12 March, four years after the Act became law. ET. Cooking gas price was cut by Rs 100 per cylinder, seven days ago. ET. Then, yesterday petrol and diesel prices were cut Rs 2 per liter. TIE. And, the government has blocked the video of the shooting of Khalistani activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar in Canada. ET. Handouts with taxpayer money, censorship of news and retired IAS officers, victory assured. Apparently, a Pakistani politician gave up his seat alleging vote rigging in his favor in the elections on 8 February. Reuters. It's the army in Pakistan. What about India? Don't say it out loud. 

The last thing we want.

On 11 March 2024, "The ministry of home affairs has notified the Citizenship Amendment Act's (CAA) rules today, paving the way for the law's implementation across the country. The law makes it easier for Hindu, Sikh, Jain, Buddhist, Christian and Parsi refugees from Afghanistan, Bangladesh and Pakistan, to get Indian citizenship." HT. Predictably, the Congress, Communists and Muslims have condemned the Act because Muslims have not been included for citizenship (Mint) and inability to provide documentary proof required for the National Register of Citizenship (wikipedia) may make Muslims vulnerable to deportation. "Questions were raised as to why persecuted minorities in China and Myanmar - Muslims in these cases - and in Sri Lanka, with a linguistic minority of Tamils, were not under the ambit of the new law with opponents of the law pointing out the government's alleged discriminatory attitude." DH. Firstly, there are more than 30 countries, which call themselves Islamic, in the world (nationsonline.org) and thousands of minority women are abducted, raped and forcibly converted to Islam in Pakistan (India Today). Why don't Muslims, who claim to be persecuted refugees, go to these Islamic nations? There is a network which is smuggling illegal immigrants from Bangladesh and providing them with refuge in India. "Security agencies in Jammu and Kashmir are perplexed by the revelation that Rohingyas, illegal immigrants from Myanmar, have fraudulently obtained Aadhar cards, Pan cards and domicile certificates." TN. No nation can open its borders to everyone because nations need to guard against hostile elements and no nation has the resources to provide for hordes of people. Thus, every nation has the right to choose those it will allow inside its borders. Perhaps, the protesters are unaware of another CAA, which is the "Cuban Adjustment Act, US federal law (November 2, 1966) that was enacted with the intent of allowing Cuban natives or citizens in the United States to bypass standard immigration rules to more quickly and easily obtain lawful permanent residency (often called a 'green card')." Britannica. Only Cubans. and no other. According to Portuguese law, those born in Goa, Daman, Diu, Dadra and Nagar Haveli during Portuguese rule until 19 December 1961, their children and grandchildren are eligible for citizenship of Portugal (Portuguese Nationality), which would automatically entitle them to travel anywhere within the European Union (EU). Obviously, it would be impossible for the EU to give the same facility to over 1.4 billion Indians (worldometer). The Mappila uprising in Kerala in 1921 in which Muslims "specifically targeted Hindus, butchered some and forcibly converted others, with the end goal being the creation of an Islamic state." By calling them "freedom fighters", liberals lose all credibility, wrote Rupa Subramanya. However, the real danger is that "a survey conducted by the Pew Research Center has found that over two-thirds Indians support autocratic or military rule and that support for these forms of government was found to be the highest in India among the 24 countries surveyed." The Print. Since about 79.8%, that is four-fifths, of Indians identify themselves as Hindus (wikipedia), the vast majority supporting dictatorship must be Hindus. Non-Muslims see the CAA as humane, a measure to save lives. Condemning the CAA as a knee-jerk reaction only angers these people. The last thing we want is a fascist government. That would be an unmitigated disaster.         

Difference in luxury.

"US consumer prices increased solidly in February amid higher costs for gasoline and shelter, suggesting some stickiness in inflation that further diminishes the chances of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut before June." "Inflation-weary Americans got some relief from their supermarket and medical bills." Reuters. "In February, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for all All Urban Consumers increased 0.4 percent, seasonally adjusted, and rose 3.2 percent over the last 12 months, not seasonally adjusted." bis.gov. "Consumer inflation posted a surprise acceleration in February," "while the 'core' measure stripping out volatile food and energy prices edged down slightly to 3.8 percent." "The Fed has signaled it could start reducing rates this year, so long there is continued progress in lowering inflation." ET. "There has been a lot of theorizing why so many Americans feel worse off economically. True, real wages are now finally increasing, the labor market is great, the stock market is up, and consumers are spending. But none of this amounts to a complete picture of Americans' quality of life." "According to the US Department of Agriculture, spending on food took up more than 11% of income in 2022, the latest year for which data is available - the highest in 30 years." ET. In India, CPI inflation fell by 0.01% to 5.09% in February from 5.10% in January. ET.  While, expenditure on food fell to 46.4% of household budgets in rural areas and to 39.2% in urban areas in 2022-23, "marking it as the first instance where the number fell below 50% in rural India. On the contrary, share of expenditure on conveyance both in urban and rural areas experienced a sharp increase, making it the largest non-food sub-category." Outlook. In India, "Retail food inflation rose to 8.66% in February 2024 from 8.3% previous month due to sequential rise in vegetable and meat prices." "Annual food inflation in February 2023 was 5.95% on year." FE. Thus, not only do Indians spend around 40% of their household budget on food compared to 11% for Americans, the food prices in India rose 8.66% last month on top of a 5.95% rise in February last year. Partly, this is due to the reason why Indians are also spending more on conveyance, which is the enormous taxes on fuel. Meat and vegetables are transported by trucks which run on diesel. In Delhi, the price of diesel at the pump is Rs 89.66 per liter, while the price without tax is just Rs 58.15 per liter. cleartax.in. Taxes amount to Rs 31.51 per liter of diesel which is 54.19% of its cost. This is after, "Union minister for petroleum and natural gas, Hardeep Singhy Puri, announced...that the government forewent approximately Rs 2.2 lakh crore (Rs 2.2 trillion) in revenue due to cuts in excise duty on petrol and diesel from November 2021 to May 2022." TOI. In the US, "Luxuries becoming more commonplace was a big theme of the 20th century." "Once these luxuries became common, they ceased to be luxuries. Taking them away, or pricing them like luxuries, registers to many people as a big drop in their standard of living." For Indians, food is becoming a luxury. Also, traveling to buy that food.

An FTA with the EFTA.

"India has signed a free-trade agreement (FTA)" with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), which consists of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland and Lichtenstein, and which "will see investments in India of $100 billion, the  country's trade minister says." BBC. "After 16 years of negotiations, involving 21 formal rounds," in which "India has promised to reduce tariffs to zero on 80-85 percent of goods from EFTA countries while receiving duty-free market access for almost 99% of goods, including rice." "However, investment by sovereign wealth funds is excluded from the investment obligation." BS. "Last year, India's trade with the EFTA nations was around $19 billion. Out of which $13 billion was just gold imports from Switzerland. Since no real benefits are offered on gold, the impact is going to be on the remaining $6-7 billion bilateral trade," wrote Prof Gulshan Sachdeva. In 2023, "India exported $422.23 billion worth of commodity and services, while imports stood at $625.87 billion till November." Forbes. $6-7 billion is therefore less than chump change. "Indian consumers may benefit from lower prices on seafood such as tuna and salmon; Swiss chocolate, biscuits, watches, medical equipment and energy drinks." That will be so exciting for all the 813.5 million Indians who will be provided with free food grains for the next 5 years under the PMGKAY scheme (pib.gov.in). Check for the lunch time on a Richard Mille watch worth Rs 182 million (GQ), eat salmon or tuna curry with PMGKAY free rice or chapati, along with a glass of energy drink, and finish off with a Swiss chocolate. What could be a more enjoyable meal? According to the National Family Health Survey-5 (2019-21, "there has been improvement in infant and child mortality rates. Stunting has reduced from 38.4% to 35.5%, wasting has reduced from 21% to 19.3% and the prevalence of underweight has reduced from 35.8% to 32.1%." However, anemia in women rose from 53% to 57% and in children (6-59 months) rose from 59% to 67%. DH. Last week, negotiators from the UK went back without any conclusion after 14 rounds of talks. India is apparently delaying an agreement until after the general election in the UK, which will take place in the second half of 2024 (wikipedia), expecting better terms from an expected Labour victory. Perhaps, the real reason is that "The UK is seeking major cuts in import duties on goods, such as scotch whiskey, electric vehicles, lamb meat, chocolates and certain confectionery items." If they reduce taxes on Scotch whiskey they will have to reduce taxes on Indian alcoholic drinks. Beer is taxed at 150% and whiskey starts at 300% and more than doubles as volumes rise. delhiexcise.gov.in. Union Minister for petroleum Hardeep Puri said that the government lost Rs 2.2 trillion in revenue because excise duty on petrol was cut by Rs 13 and by Rs 18 per liter from November 2021 to May 2022. TOI. As though we should prostrate ourselves in gratitude at the enormous favor. Just to remind the minister that petrol costs Rs 96.72 per liter in Delhi (News18), while the average cost of petrol in the US is about $3.5 per US gallon which works out to about Rs 76 per liter (eia.gov). Americans get to spend more of their earnings while our government spends our earnings. That's why Americans are rich. And we need free food grains.