Wednesday, February 21, 2024

Spending to reduce debt.

"Amid the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) warning that India's general government debt could exceed 100% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the medium-term, a Reserve Bank of India (RBI) paper the ratio could fall to 73.4% by 2030-31. The debt reduction would be supported by spending on social and physical infrastructure, climate mitigation, digitalisation and skilling of the labor force, the authors...argued." FE. That is erudite indeed. The authors are able to predict the debt level after six years exactly, to a decimal point, and this will be achieved by spending. "Empirical findings show that medium term complementarities between judicious fiscal consolidation and growth outweigh the short-run costs." "The Interim Budget for 2024-25 has projected the gross fiscal deficit of the Union government at 5.1% of GDP in 2024-25, in line with the target of 4.5% of GDP by 2025-26." DH. "However, official data shows that when the UPA-1 government took charge in 2004, the gross debt of the Union government was over 67% of GDP and the gross debt of Union and state governments together (general government) was 85% of GDP. When the UPA era ended in 2014, gross central government debt had come down to below 53% of GDP and general government debt to below 67%. In the past 10 years under the Modi government, central government debt has climbed up to 58% of GDP in FY24 and general government debt to 82% of GDP." The Wire. The UPA period was hit by the subprime crisis in 2007-08, during which bank lending seized up (Investopedia) and although "the Federal Reserve provided liquidity and support through a range of programs motivated by a desire to improve the functioning of financial markets and institutions," even so, "in the fall of 2008, the economic contraction worsened, ultimately becoming deep enough and protracted enough to acquire the label 'the Great Recession'." Federal Reserve. During Mr Modi's tenure, the coronavirus pandemic prompted a disproportionate response as, "On March 25, when India had reported only 500 cases, the country went into what was one of the strictest lockdowns in the world. This first set of curbs remained in place till April 14 and was extended four times, each time with gradual relaxation. The rest of the world adopted different models." HT. With Japan falling into recession and the UK and Germany stagnating, India is sure to become the third largest economy in the world if, with the El Nino receding, the monsoon cooperates. News18. India's "exports of goods and services rose marginally by 0.4% to USD 765.6 billion in 2023 (ET), while Germany's exports were more than double at $1.62 trillion in 2022 (wikipedia). If western countries do stagnate it will affect our exports as well. Government spending in rupees, which goes round and round within India, will not create new money. Can they inflate the economy with hot air? Not a balloon, is it?    

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