Friday, February 02, 2024

One wrong cancels the other.

 "The interim budget carries the continuity of confidence and will empower all four pillars of developed India while building a future for the country, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said," and "The PM reiterated that the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) will come back with a greater majority - a remark also made by Sitharaman during her hour-long speech." "If 2019-20 interim budget surprised everyone by announcing significant tax concessions and fiscal handouts in an election year, 2024-25 budget of Nirmala Sitharaman surprised even more by containing no surprises. It was just a vote-on-account," wrote R Jagannathan. "To be simply put, when an outgoing government seeks interim permission from the Parliament to withdraw funds from the Consolidated Funds of India and spend that on expenditures and important government schemes for a few months until a new government is formed is called a vote on account." ET. In fact, there should be no budget at all, just a vote on account to continue government spending like last year. The BJP government committed a wrong in 2019-20, so there is no need to congratulate them this time. "India's fiscal deficit for the first nine months of FY24 was Rs 9.82 trillion, or 55% of the estimate for FY24, government data showed. Net tax revenues for the April-December period were Rs 17.3 trillion, or about 74.2% of the annual estimate, compared with Rs 15.56 trillion in the same period last year." BT. FM Sitharaman's "budget justified her hope of a better credit rating for India." "However, rating agencies are still not pleased. Global rating agencies Moody's, Fitch and S&P have the lowest investment grade rating for India with a stable outlook." ET. In fact, only last month, "Fitch Ratings affirmed India's credit rating at BBB- with a stable outlook," which is "supported by a robust medium-term GDP growth forecast and solid external finances, positioning India as one of the fastest-growing nations globally in the coming years." ET. "The International Monetary Fund recently warned India that if the debt situation is not watched, its debt-to-gross domestic product could shoot up to 100%. The government rebutted that warning, saying that in fact it had come down from a covid high of 89% to the present 82%," wrote Ajit Ranade. Perhaps the government has been inflating away its debt, because inflation "can push taxpayers into higher income tax brackets or reduce the value of tax credits, deductions and exemptions. This is known as bracket creep, which results in an increase in income taxes without an increase in real income." Tax foundation. The consumer price index (CPI) inflation has been higher than the government target of 4% since October 2019. RI. The Reserve Bank (RBI) held its interest rate at 4%, well below the level of inflation, for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022. NDTV. The IMF and the rating agencies do not believe that it can continue doing that forever. Last time the government was wrong, this time it is the RBI. Two wrongs don't make a right (wikipedia). Never did, never will.  

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