Thursday, February 22, 2024

Wishful thinking.

"India will likely retain its position as the fastest-growing large economy for the third successive year in 2024-25." "Investors are more than eager to put their money on the table when it comes to India. Yet, our credit rating remains on the precipice of just about being investment grade." Because, "Sovereign ratings are still the hallowed domain of the Big Three ratings companies." "The solution lies in more large domestic rating agencies issuing sovereign ratings," wrote Madan Sabnavis. To judge a country's economy any company will need to have offices in those countries it is rating, will need to employ a large number of accountants and economists and will need to be seen to be completely impartial. Elon Musk's company X says that, "The Indian government has issued executive orders requiring X to act on specific accounts and posts, subject to potential penalties including significant fines and imprisonment." The posts were regarding the ongoing protests by Punjab farmers. During the 2021 protests by farmers, "The Delhi Police...said it has registered an FIR against unnamed persons in connection with the 'toolkit', which was shared by teen climate activist Greta Thunberg. ET. On 4 February 2021, "Hours after a tweet by pop superstar Rihanna drew global attention to the cause of protesting farmers, India launched an unprecedented backlash against the Barbadian singer." BBC. This government is renowned for fudging economic data as it did with the GDP back series which increased GDP growth rate from 7.1% to 8.2% in 2016-17, the year of demonetisation. BT. Two members of the National Statistical Commission PC Mohanan and J Meenakshi resigned in protest in 2019 when their report on employment was suppressed. NDTV. "Exactly a year ago, Oxfam-India, a now beleaguered NGO, said the bottom 50% of our population paid 64% of the GST collected in 2021-22 whereas the top 10% contributed only 3%. Two months later Union Finance Minister pilloried its findings in the Rajya Sabha." DH. In retribution for its impertinence, "India's federal investigating agency has started an inquiry into Oxfam India after the government alleged the charity had violated the country's foreign funding regulations." Reuters. Oxfam is an organisation founded in Britain with offices and shops all over the world. wikipedia. It is natural, therefore, that its funding will come from abroad. The Big Three credit rating agencies, S&P, Moody's and Fitch, are all American, (wikipedia) generate revenue by selling data, were established nearly 100 years ago and are quoted on the stock markets. The Indian government would never dare to take on Americans. On the other hand, employees of any domestic company could be arrested, their phones and laptops seized and their bank accounts frozen if the government disagrees with their assessment. Why wish for something that cannot happen.  

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