Tuesday, February 27, 2024

Jam today, not a fantastic future.

"Japanese economy contracted for two consecutive quarters ending 2023 and reported recession." Germany has moved above Japan to become the third largest economy. News18. "People spending less, doctors' strikes and a fall in schools attendance dragged the UK into recession at the end of last year, official figures show. The economy shrank by a larger than expected 0.3% between October and December, after it had already contracted between July and September." BBC. "The start of the year saw Chinese stocks tumbling to five-year lows on growth concerns and deflation," as "Fleeing investors have expressed frustration that authorities have not unveiled a clear roadmap to fixing structural issues laid bare last year when the Chinese economy failed to replicate the explosive recovery experienced by other economies after Covid-19." FE. "The US economy appears to have achieved a 'soft landing' with the latest data showing cooling, but still-robust growth." "Many investors seem to expect a 'V-shaped' economy rebound that accelerates sharply upwards from its low point," but "Instead we believe the 2024 soft landing is more likely to feature decent but unexciting growth, with company profits and interest rates hovering near current levels - what we call 'sideways normalization'." Morgan Stanley. "In this backdrop, stable and strong political dispensation lends strength to argue that (India) overtaking both Japan and Germany to become the third-largest economy globally by 2027 or a wee bit earlier is credible." News18. We may have surpassed that already. "A recent report revealed that India is home to around 247 million entrepreneurial households, poised to propel the nation's upcoming economic surge, generating a transaction value of $8.8 trillion in FY23." Using a new metric - core transaction value (CTV), Praxis Global Alliance projected "their CTV to see a 12.7% year-on-year increase, reaching $95.2 trillion by FY43". With so many entrepreneurs transacting so much core, why is it not showing in our GDP? "The Indian economy witnessed a great year, closing 2023 with a GDP of US $3.73 trillion, GDP per capita at US $2,610 and a projected GDP growth rate of 6.3% against the global average of 2.9%. As India is geared to become a US $5 trillion economy by 2027." ORF. GDP of $3.73 trillion with CTV of $8.8 trillion. "Not long ago, Uttar Pradesh (UP) was clubbed with the BIMARU." BIMARU includes Bihar, MP, Rajasthan and UP. The label is a play on 'bimar' which means 'sick'. "This year, it's (UP) the second largest, according to Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath," and is set to become a trillion dollar economy by 2027. TN. But, "UP recorded a per capita Net State Domestic Product of Rs 70,792 for the fiscal year 2021-22," which is less than that of Pakistan and Sub-Saharan Africa. Even that is because "UP receives Rs 2.73 back for every Re 1 it contributes to the Union of India, while Tamil Nadu receives only 29 paise for every Re 1 it contributes to the Union." The Wire. UP's growth is only by robbing more prosperous states. Do all these fantastic figures translate into votes. Doubtful. People want jam today, not tomorrow, So why do it? Mystery.       

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