Blunder by analysts.

"Surpassing expectations of analysts, India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) registered a robust growth of 8.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter (October-December), as against 8.1% in the previous quarter, data released by the National Statistical Office showed." "According to a median poll of 15 economists conducted by ET, the economy was expected to grow by 6.6% in the third quarter." "The number for Q1, Q2 FY24 has also been revised upwards to 8.2% (against 7.8%) and 8.1% (against 7.6%) respectively." ET. The rate of growth of India's GDP was 7.41% in 2013-14, at which point Mr Narendra Modi was first elected as prime minister (wikipedia). This rate of growth was despite the average price of crude oil at around $90 per barrel in 2014." The average price of oil fell to around $46 per barrel in 2015 and has been largely below $60 per barrel till 2021. The Balance. With the falling price of oil, the growth rate of GDP increased to 8.0% in 2015 and to 8.26% in 2016. Then came the demonetisation on 8 November 2016 when Rs 15.41 trillion worth of high value banknotes were suddenly withdrawn from circulation with 4 hours notice. wikipedia. The growth rate of GDP fell to 6.80% in 2017, 6.45% in 2018 and to 3.87% in 2019. worldometer. 2020 and 2021 were affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. Real GDP, or GDP at constant prices, grew at 7% in 2022-23. pib.gov.in. In 2023-24, the rate of growth has been 8.2%, 8.1% and now 8.2%. Why were the analysts expecting a rate of 6.6%? Were they looking at some other data, or did they get their sums badly wrong? They should explain the reason for their blunder. Or, with the general election due in April to May 2024 (wikipedia), this could be an election effect. So, can we expect a double digit growth rate in the January to March quarter? Anything is possible. Even the gods are smiling on us. "The production of wheat is estimated to reach an all-time high of 112.01 million tonnes during the crop year 2023-24, shows data released by the Ministry of Agriculture & Farmers' Welfare." TIE. The government banned the export of wheat since May 2022. USDA. In January 2024, "The Government of India (GOI) is not considering any proposal to lift the export curbs on wheat, rice, and sugar, Union Minister of Commerce Piyush Goyal said." Mint. Which means the price of wheat could crash in India if there is a bumper harvest, bringing down the cost of food before the election, but decimating income for farmers. "Financial professionals around the world are noticing India's development since 2014 under two-term Prime Minister Narendra Modi," and "The optimism around the world's most populous nation is in stark contrast to the mood found in China, which is grappling with a myriad of economic challenges." "There are good reasons for the euphoria around India. From a surging young population to humming factories, the country has a lot going in its favor." CNN. A certificate from an American news channel - priceless. With so much good news, surely Mr Modi is invincible? Can anyone find a chink in his armor? Will need guts.