Sunday, February 18, 2024

Slices of per capita.

"The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has said the economy will expand at 7% in FY25, at world-leading rates for the second year running," and "The real GDP is expected to climb 7.3% in FY24, as per first advanced estimates by the National Statistics Office." ET. "India will remain the fastest-growing major economy for at least the next three years, setting it on course to become the world's third-largest economy by 2030, S&P Global Ratings said." Reuters. At the moment, India is the fifth largest economy with a GDP of $4,112 trillion with Japan at number four with $4,291 trillion and Germany at number three with $4,730 trillion. Forbes. While India's GDP growth is measured in rupees, its world ranking is measured in dollars and hence the ranking will depend on the exchange of the rupee against the dollar. 2030 is six years from now. Six years back, in 2018, one dollar bought Rs 70.64 (Forbes) while today the exchange rate is Rs 83.01 to one dollar. xe.com. That is a fall of 17.51% in 6 years. If the rupee falls at the same rate against the dollar, one dollar will buy Rs 97.54 in 2030. On the other hand, the rupee could strengthen considerably if the expected flood of investment by foreign portfolio investors (FPI) materialises. "JP Morgan will include Indian government bonds in its Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) from June 2024," adding 1% per month up to a total weight of 10%, and "The inclusion could result in inflows of close to $24 billion over this 10-month period." Reuters. Also, India's weightage increased to 18.2% from 17.9% in the MSCI Emerging Market Index and so, "The Indian equity markets are poised to experience a substantial surge in foreign capital inflows." Mint. In its February 2024 meeting, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI left its inflation projection at 5.4% for the financial year 2023-24 (FY24) and at 4.5% for FY 25. ET. In comparison, the CPI inflation in the US fell to 3.1% from 3.4% in December, "But the latest reading is still well above the Federal Reserve's 2 percent target level at a time when public frustration with inflation has become a pivotal issue in President Joe Biden's bid for re-election." PBS. As India's inflation is almost double that of the US the rupee must decline against the dollar. "Germany's economy is at about $4.4 trillion, whereas its population is at about 85 million. Per capita, that's about $52,000. India has 1.4 billion people to enjoy the fruits of its $3.61 trillion economy: about $2,580 per capita," wrote Dilip D'Souza. US presidential election is on 5 November 2024 (wikipedia), whereas India's election date of 16 April remains a mystery (Mint). Biden is unsure with inflation at 3.1%, whereas Mr Modi is certain of victory with inflation at 5.4% (Reuters). Americans expect their government to serve them while Indians have no expectations. Just vote for the devil you know (dictionary). Sad, isn't it?

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