Thursday, February 08, 2024

Different approach.

In a complete waste of time, "The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) rate-setting panel, Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), on Thursday (yesterday) kept the repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the sixth time in a row." ET. "The benchmark interest rate was last raised in February 2023 to 6.5% from 6.25% to contain inflation driven mainly by global developments." More than one year back. The RBI also forecast the Indian economy to grow at 7% in the financial year 2024-25 (FY25), inflation rate for this fiscal to be 5.4% this year and at 4.5% in FY25. ET. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said "elevated debt is raising serious concern in many countries, it will impact future global financial system." ET. "According to the IMF, the gross public debt to GDP ratio of AEs (advanced economies) is projected to increase from 104.1% in 2019 to 112.1% in 2023. For EMEs, (emerging market economies), the gross public debt to GDP ratio is estimated to increase from 55.9% in 2019 to 68.3% in 2023." On the other hand, India's public debt shot up to 88.5% of GDP in 2020 but has fallen back to 81% of GDP in 2022 and is expected to fall to 80.5% in 2028. ET. Substantially higher than other EMEs. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said that "the debt-to-GDP ratio is spoken of conveniently by cherry-picking data. If you look at many developed countries, they have a debt-to-GDP ratio 200-300 percent higher than India." TN. But, India is not a developed country. Is it because of inflation? The Federal Reserve in the US has brought inflation down from 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.1% in November 2023, rising to 3.4% in December. Since 2000, average annual inflation has stayed below 2% in most years, rising to 4.7% in 2021, 8.0% in 2022 and down to 4.1% in 2023. USIC. Inflation in the eurozone spiked to 10.60% in October 2022 but dropped sharply to 2.40% in November 2023, rising to 2.90% in December. ycharts. In the UK, the inflation rate soared to 11.1% in October 2022, dropped to 3.90% in November 2023, rising to 4% in December. ycharts. In India, inflation jumped from 4.0% in September 2019 to 7.4% in December and has stayed above 5% in most months. RI. It is well known that high inflation reduces government debt by increasing indirect tax collections and reducing the value of the debt. Economics Help. It also increases direct tax collections through 'bracket creep'. "Bracket creep is a situation where inflation pushes income into higher tax brackets. The result is an increase in income taxes but no increase in real purchasing power." Investopedia. Growth in fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) sales is expected to slow down in 2024 after "robust growth led by higher prices". pressreader. Even the festival month of Diwali "witnessed subdued enthusiasm, and the post-Diwali sales have been historically low" and "Within the non-food segment, beauty and cosmetic products are experiencing the worst downturn, followed closely by soaps and detergents, despite most companies rolling back price hikes," said Dhairyashil Patil. NDTV. Developed economies aim to bring down prices, reduce interest rates, stimulate consumption and increase investment. That's why they are developed. And we are not.  

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