Wednesday, September 20, 2023

Farmers for elections.

"Indian economy growth forecast: Six out of 10 leading chief economists from both the public and the private sectors expect the global economy to weaken in the coming year." TN. "Despite this, a large majority are confident of growth in India." "Over 90 percent expect moderate or strong growth this year in South Asia, notably India," WEF (World Economic Forum) said in a statement. "Former Reserve Bank of India Governor C Rangarajan lauded India's ascent to become the world's fifth largest economy, hailing it as an impressive achievement. However, he has also underscored the need for India to accelerate its economic growth to improve the per capita income of the nation." ET. "According to calculations, he said, if the country achieves a seven percent rate of growth continuously over the next two decades and more, it will make a substantial change to the level of the economy and India may almost touch the status of a developed country." India's Gross National Income (GNI) per capita was $2,380 in 2022, compared to $12,830 in Russia, $48,890 in the UK and $12,804 for the world, in current dollars. World Bank. "Bajaj Auto does not see entry-level customers returning 'in the near future', its managing director told CNBC.., signaling a dull festive season for the traditional fuel based-segment as buyers weigh electric options." TOI. "Sales of two-wheelers reflect the financial health of India's rural economy and demand in the largest consumption segment - the lower and middle income households - that is battling a sharp rise in food prices due to erratic monsoons." "India's official inflation rate for the month of August is 6.83 percent, down from 7.44 percent the previous month," wrote Ajit Ranade. Almost 49% of the consumer price index (CPI) consists of food. "The government has used a combination of banning exports or levying a hefty export tax on a variety of agricultural products, including wheat, rice, sugar and onions. This affects the earnings of farmers who were eyeing lucrative profits from exports." "Apart from food inflation, oil prices, a slipping rupee-dollar exchange rate, one major contributor to the inflationary trend is the size of the fiscal deficit. India is running a high fiscal deficit, and its national debt is also rising." "India's fiscal situation is more dire than is acknowledged." "The government says that there is record production of wheat this year. It said the same for last year as well." And yet, "It has had a ban in place on wheat exports since May 2022 and on the export of atta (whole wheat flour) and similar products since August 2022," wrote Puja Mehra. Inflation is bad for winning elections. So, the government sold wheat from its stocks "at prices lower than its economic cost (of buying, transporting and storing)." This policy hammers the incomes of farmers. Between January and April this year, 830 farmers committed suicide in Maharashtra, but this is less than 945 suicides in the same period last year. Boast, spend, sacrifice farmers. Win elections in three easy steps.        

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