Friday, September 08, 2023

Foreigners can refuse.

"India will be a developed country by 2047, Prime Minister Narendra Modi said in his 10th Independence Day speech, juxtaposing that long-term goal with the short-term objective of the country's economy becoming the world's third largest - it is currently fifth - which he said would happen during his third term." HT. According to a classification in 2021, a high income country has a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita in current US dollars greater than 12,695. World Bank. In 2022, India had a GNI per capita of $2,380, less than that of Bhutan and Bangladesh. "We need to grow at 8-9 percent till at least 2047 to become a developed economy...moving away from middle income level...To grow at that pace is not easy. Very few countries in the world have been able to grow at a pace of 8-9 percent year-on-year," Deloitte South Asia CEO Romal Shetty said."India is behind China by 21 years in patent, 20 years in FDI, 19 years in forex reserves, and 17 years in exports. On nominal GDP and per capita income, India is 15 years behind. In consumption expenditure it is 13 years behind." The Wire. With a GNI per capita of $12,850 in 2022, China is still reckoned to be a middle-income country. "If China were to escape the middle-income trap, it would need to increase its total factor productivity to join the club of high-income countries - which remains dismal." The Print. "India's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) surged to a four-quarter high of 7.6 percent on an annual basis in the June quarter of FY24, in-line with expectations, data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) showed." ET. "The RBI expects India to grow at 6.5 percent in FY24." Way below the 8-9% required, and even that depends on how El Nino affects our agriculture. Slowdown in exports, persistent inflation and weak rural consumption due to high prices could bring down our rate of growth. India Today. The RBI is trying to help by keeping its repo rate unchanged at 6.5% for the third time in August (BT) because a low borrowing cost helps the government and businesses. Instead, "A large Indian state-run bank sold dollars aggressively, likely on behalf of the central bank." Reuters. "The selling was very aggressive and the purpose it seems was to ensure that the USD/INR did not register a closing above 83 on a weekly basis." A strong rupee brings down the cost of imports and may control inflation. But, inflation lowers the value of the rupee. The dollar is trading at 83.09 rupees this morning. xe.com. "A Princeton University professor wrote an article in an international publication??? accusing the Indian government of conducting a 'branding and beautification' exercise on its GDP numbers to make them look better in the run-up to the G20 summit." The Print. However, Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran rejected the criticism by "naysayers" (ET), because the GDP contracted by 23.9% in first quarter of 2020-21 (India Today). Surely, that is no argument. What if that was wrong as well? The best thing is to have accurate data without interference from the government. The more you boast the more you have to prove. Indians have no choice but to swallow the bull. Foreigners do not have to. 

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