Thursday, September 28, 2023

Tariffs and a snake.

"Speaking at an event to mark the completion of 20 years of the Vibrant Gujarat Summit," "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said their aim is to make India a global growth engine and that the country will soon emerge as an economic powerhouse of the world." PTI. "NITI Aayog's vice-chairman Suman Bery...lauded India and said that the time for the country's take-off moment has come." ET. "Bery, while speaking at an event, said, India's economy is at a stage where the private sector has to play a more significant role. The private sector contributes 40 percent of R&D in the country, while its share in developed countries is 70 percent, he said." Why should they?  "On the back of impressive performance by banking sector, Nifty 500 companies clocked a record profit of Rs 11.1 lakh crore (Rs 11.1 trillion) in FY23, a rise of 8% over FY22 earnings of Rs 10.2 lakh crore." Fortune India. "Between FY18 and FY23, corporate profit registered a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 17.6% while India's GDP recorded a CAGR of 9.8%. Even during the period of 2020-23, corporate profit CAGR at 34.3% was significantly higher than the GDP CAGR at 10.7%." What explains this bonanza? In 2018-19, "a massive 42.3% of all tariff lines went up, the average of all customs duties increased from 13.7% to 17.7%, and the proportion of tariff lines bearing 15% or higher duty shot up from 28.7% to 51.0%," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. With imports becoming expensive, domestic companies can sell old stuff at higher prices and rake in bonuses. Why waste on R&D. "The printed circuit board assembly, the camera module, the touch-screen and the glass cover." Parts of a smartphone. Vietnam "sources these and most other components at zero tariffs from free-trade partners." But India "has customs duties as high as 22%," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The cost may not be showing up in export performance because it is being borne by India's 1.4 billion consumers." "Component manufacturers have no incentive to become globally competitive if they can hawk whatever they make in their home market at inflated price, shielded by tariffs." Vietnam exported 6 times as many smartphones last year. The inclusion of India in JP Mogan's emerging market index will attract $20-30 billion into government bonds bring down yields, thus lowering borrowing costs for the government, and strengthen the rupee. DH. But, "There will be greater scrutiny of India's financial situation and practices and a sharper focus on the government's fiscal responsibility." "The RBI may be presented with some challenges, but it will have better latitude to manage the rupee, but the government's conduct with it will be watched closely." But, they are used to doing whatever they like. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi had referred to former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel as a 'snake who sits over a hoard of money', revealed former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg." BT. Pesky foreigners may prefer a "snake" over a grinning puppet. Dear Leader will not be amused.  

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