Thursday, September 14, 2023

No rocket science. Just common sense and intuition.

"RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has deservedly received an A+ rating in the recently released Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2023." ET. "Under Das, RBI has a harmonious, constructive relationship with the ministry (of Finance)." "Economics isn't rocket science. It's more common sense. It requires experience and intuition to get decisions right." So, the RBI can be run by anyone from the government who would presumably have oodles of experience and intuition and a harmonious, constructive relationship with politicians. Reassuring indeed. "Retail inflation in India moderated to 6.83 percent in August on an annual basis after surging to 7.4 percent in July, government data showed." ET. "CPI core inflation for August stood at 4.8 percent as against 4.9 percent in July." "Tomato prices, which had skyrocketed in July, had started cooling in late August." In August, "India has imported unspecified quantities of tomatoes from Nepal to boost supplies of the vegetable, an official has said, amid a decline in prices." HT. Thereby, profits of Indian farmers were transferred to those in Nepal. Now, "The prices of tomatoes have crashed in major markets on oversupply," and "have become so cheap that farmers are dumping their produce rather than incur losses in storage and transport." HT. Let farmers bear the brunt. Intuition and common sense. "RBI's central target for inflation is 4%," and "Its chief policy rate of 6.5% remains negative in real terms." Mint. "But what if India's inflation tracker is inaccurate?" Nearly, half the CPI index consists of food and beverages and as the country grows richer, the proportion of consumer spending on food becomes relatively less. So, the theory goes, that CPI inflation is actually much less than what is reported and "Data from 2022-23 survey expected this year could help." But, what if the present index is actually too low? In 2022, "Services sector contributed over 50% to India's GDP, highlighted the Economic Survey 2021-22." pib.gov.in. "Gross Value Added (GVA) at current prices for the services sector is estimated at 96.54 lakh crore (Rs 96.54 trillion) in 2020-21. The services sector accounts for 53.89% of total India's GVA of 179.15 lakh crore Indian rupees. With GVA of 46.44 lakh crore, the industry sector contributes 25.92%." Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). "Often we tend to compare with the US," but "In the US, services dominate the CPI index with a collective weight of 58.2% and transport, recreation, education and medical prices together account for 20.2% if the index. In our index, these form under 10%," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Maybe we are not that different. Maybe our inflation is higher than what is reported. Will that alter the "constructive relationship"?

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