Sunday, September 17, 2023

It's a long story.

"The Indian rupee currently trades at around 83 to the dollar. Has the rupee been falling in recent years? Or has the dollar been rising?" Firstpost. "For instance, in September 2013, the rupee was trading at 85 to the Euro. Ten years later, it is at 89." "If the rupee was indeed falling, its value would go down with respect to all currencies. Instead, it is the dollar which has become stronger against everything else." "India's forex reserves dropped by $4.992 billion to $593.904 billion for the week ended September 8, according to the latest RBI data." News18. "The country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion in October 2021. The reserves took a hit as the central bank deployed the reserves to defend the rupee amid pressures caused majorly by global developments since last year." The rupee was at 59.5 to one dollar in 2014 (Thomas Cook) and is trading at 83.10 this morning (xe.com), which is a fall of about 39.5% in 9.5 years. "While the rupee has lost 9.8 percent in calendar year 2022," the Japanese yen was down 22.6% against the US dollar, South Korean Won was down 17.1%, pound sterling was down 16.6% and the Euro was down 14.2%. TOI. However, the Indonesian rupiah was down 8%, the Singapore dollar was down 5.4% and the Hong Kong dollar was down just 0.7%. The value of the rupee also depends on the whims of the government. "In November 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shocked the world by outlawing the 500 ($6) and 1,000 rupee bills in which the country held 86 percent of its cash. This time the coup de grace has fallen on the Rs 2,000 rupee banknote," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Sovereign cash should have no room for questions." "The 10,000 Singapore dollar ($7,400) note was retired a decade ago," "But it remains legal tender, as do the $1,000 bills, which went away in 2021." "But if you discover them in your aunt's attic, they're still very much money and not worthless paper." That is exactly what has happened to the old notes in India. Worthless paper. The rupee is also expressed in its real effective exchange rate (REER) against a basket of currencies based on inflation rate. Against a basket of 40 currencies, and taking 2015-16 as the base year, the REER for the rupee is slightly overvalued but is projected to drop in December 2023. indiabudget.gov.in. The value of the rupee reflects what it can buy and that depends on how high prices rise, or inflation. In the year to July 2023, India's inflation rate was 7.5%, while the average for the G20 was 5.8%. Rates in the UK, Germany and Italy were higher than 5.8%. Over 3-year and 5-year periods India was near the top of G20 average, but over a 10-year period India averaged higher inflation than richer Western nations. ET. Since inflation is consistently higher than the average for G20 nations (minus Turkey) the rupee will weaken against most currencies. Not the fault of the dollar.    

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