Can't claim credit.

"India has told Canada that if it had anything 'specific and relevant', New Delhi will be open to looking at it, external affairs minister S Jaishankar said in his first comments about Canada's allegations linking 'agents' of the Indian government with a killing in Canada. India, Jaishankar said, has also told Canada that this is not government of India policy." HT. Really? In 2017, "Addressing the Indian diaspora in Virginia," "Prime Minister Narendra Modi brought up cross-border terrorism and the surgical-strikes carried out by India across the Line of Control last year as he addressed Indian Americans... a day before his first meeting with US President Donald Trump." HT. "Days after PM Modi's advisory to his ministerial colleagues and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leaders that they refrain from chest-thumping about India army's surgical strikes on terrorists in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir," "During BJP's meetings in Agra and Lucknow, according to the Indian Express, partymen celebrated the surgical strikes and issued threats that India could hit Pakistan with nuclear weapons, too." BS. Canada beware. "The killing of Maulana Ziaur Rahman, a cleric, at a park in Karachi's Gulistan-e-Jauhar," "by two motorcycle-borne unidentified gunmen who pumped multiple bullets into their target when he was on his daily evening stroll" has worried Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI). TOI. Rahman "was a Lashkar operative and his killing almost mimicked another asset of theirs - Paramjit Singh Panwar, chief of Khalistan Commando Force." "Lashkar-e-Tayyiba, also known as Army of the Righteous, is one of the largest and most proficient of the Kashmir-focused militant groups." dni.gov. "The Indian Government has charged LT with committing the 26-29 November 2008 attacks in Mumbai, in which gunmen using automatic weapons and grenades attacked several sites, killing more than 160 people." "On March 1, Mistry Zahoor Ibrahim, and IC-814 Indian Airlines hijacker was shot dead in Karachi." Indian Airlines flight IC-814 was hijacked by five masked Pakistani militants of the Harkat-ul-Mujahideen and flown to Kandahar in Afghanistan on 24 December 1999. wikipedia. The hijack ended after 7 days in utter humiliation for India when it had to release 3 Islamist militants in Indian prisons. In November 2020, "Pakistan's foreign minister and military said that India's Research & Analysis Wing (RAW) intelligence agency was operating a network of agents and training camps through its diplomatic missions in Afghanistan," and "said they had obtained documents that showed New Delhi had met with funded members of the Pakistani Taliban, as well as Baloch insurgent groups from the southern province of Balochistan who have claimed responsibility for attacks on Chinese interests as part of an effort to sabotage China's $65 billion Belt and Road investment plan in Pakistan." Reuters. Surgical strikes on both Pakistan and China, hailed as "Iron Brothers" by President Xi Jinping (CGTN)? Canada's allegations have made it impossible to claim credit. General election before May 2024. wikipedia. Absolutely infuriating.  

Baby spy.

"Before the pandemic hit, weddings were big business in China, with Daxue Consulting estimating the industry to be worth 3.6 trillion yuan ($487 billion) in 2020." Reuters. "There were 6.8 million marriages across China last year, 800,000 fewer than in 2021 and the lowest since the government began publishing the data in 1986." "The trend, which has become obvious as the economy weakens and consumer confidence wanes, is also worrying officials trying to revive marriage, and birth, rates which dropped to record lows last year, leading to the first decline in population numbers in 60 years." "China's ousted foreign minister Qin Gang had an extramarital affair with a high-profile Chinese television presenter who had a child through surrogacy in the United States, the Financial Times reported." CNN. "Fu Xiaotian, 40, the former host of a flagship talk show on Hong Kong-based Chinese broadcaster Phoenix TV, was in a relationship with Qin." Apparently, Qin has been removed for security reasons. A baby born in the US is granted "birthright citizenship". FindLaw. But, by the time this baby grows up to be an American spy, Qin would have finished his two terms as Foreign Minister, so what risk? Xi Jinping's daughter Xi Mingze was at Harvard from 2010 to 2014 (wikipedia) and could have been infected by Western woke liberalism rampant in Massachusetts. "In recent years, the US has launched an aggressive espionage effort against China," while "Beijing has also been following an extremely aggressive espionage track." TOI. "US officials say, China's efforts reach across every facet of national security, diplomacy and advanced commercial technology in the United States and partner nations." Meanwhile, "A massive retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing the market's clout in global portfolios," as "Foreign holdings of the nation's equities and debt have fallen by about 1.37 trillion yuan ($188 billion), or 17%, from a December-2021 peak through the end of June this year, according to Bloomberg." ET.  "The only good thing right now about the US housing market is that it can't get much worse from here, according to Redfin CEO Glen Kellman." BI. "That's the fault of high mortgage rates, which have raised the cost of borrowing for prospective homebuyers, while also discouraging potential sellers from listing their homes." On the other hand, "Even China's population of 1.4 billion would not be enough to fill all the empty apartments littered across the country, a former official said.., in a rare public critique of the country's crisis-hit property market." Reuters. As a result, "Global debt hit a record $307 trillion in the second quarter of the year.., with markets such as the United States and Japan driving the rise, the Institute of International Finance said," and hence, "the latest increase has lifted the global debt-to-GDP ratio for the second straight year to 336%." Reuters. In all this tussle Qin Gang fathered an American baby. A huge security risk. What if he has 666?       

Tariffs and a snake.

"Speaking at an event to mark the completion of 20 years of the Vibrant Gujarat Summit," "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said their aim is to make India a global growth engine and that the country will soon emerge as an economic powerhouse of the world." PTI. "NITI Aayog's vice-chairman Suman Bery...lauded India and said that the time for the country's take-off moment has come." ET. "Bery, while speaking at an event, said, India's economy is at a stage where the private sector has to play a more significant role. The private sector contributes 40 percent of R&D in the country, while its share in developed countries is 70 percent, he said." Why should they?  "On the back of impressive performance by banking sector, Nifty 500 companies clocked a record profit of Rs 11.1 lakh crore (Rs 11.1 trillion) in FY23, a rise of 8% over FY22 earnings of Rs 10.2 lakh crore." Fortune India. "Between FY18 and FY23, corporate profit registered a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 17.6% while India's GDP recorded a CAGR of 9.8%. Even during the period of 2020-23, corporate profit CAGR at 34.3% was significantly higher than the GDP CAGR at 10.7%." What explains this bonanza? In 2018-19, "a massive 42.3% of all tariff lines went up, the average of all customs duties increased from 13.7% to 17.7%, and the proportion of tariff lines bearing 15% or higher duty shot up from 28.7% to 51.0%," wrote Prof Arvind Panagariya. With imports becoming expensive, domestic companies can sell old stuff at higher prices and rake in bonuses. Why waste on R&D. "The printed circuit board assembly, the camera module, the touch-screen and the glass cover." Parts of a smartphone. Vietnam "sources these and most other components at zero tariffs from free-trade partners." But India "has customs duties as high as 22%," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "The cost may not be showing up in export performance because it is being borne by India's 1.4 billion consumers." "Component manufacturers have no incentive to become globally competitive if they can hawk whatever they make in their home market at inflated price, shielded by tariffs." Vietnam exported 6 times as many smartphones last year. The inclusion of India in JP Mogan's emerging market index will attract $20-30 billion into government bonds bring down yields, thus lowering borrowing costs for the government, and strengthen the rupee. DH. But, "There will be greater scrutiny of India's financial situation and practices and a sharper focus on the government's fiscal responsibility." "The RBI may be presented with some challenges, but it will have better latitude to manage the rupee, but the government's conduct with it will be watched closely." But, they are used to doing whatever they like. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi had referred to former Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Urjit Patel as a 'snake who sits over a hoard of money', revealed former finance secretary Subhash Chandra Garg." BT. Pesky foreigners may prefer a "snake" over a grinning puppet. Dear Leader will not be amused.  

Bones heal, words are forever.

"The Prime Minister's Office has dismissed comments from a former Indian diplomat, who says there is a 'credible rumor' that Justin Trudeau's plane 'was full of cocaine' during the recent G20 meeting in New Delhi." Toronto Sun. This ex-diplomat may be trying to show his patriotism to India at no apparent cost but every government in the world will begin to see India as a cesspit lacking in basic civility and courtesy. Not surprising then that, "Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) Lok Sabha MP Ramesh Bidhuri used violent anti-Muslim slurs against his parliamentary colleague Danish Ali of the Bahujan Samaj Party. Bidhuri's words were televised as part of the Lok Sabha proceedings. 'Yeh ugrawaadi (militant), yeh aatankwaadi hai (terrorist), ugrawaadi hai, yeh aatankwaadi hai,' Bidhuri can be hear shouting during the proceedings. He also reportedly referred to Ali as a 'Mullah aatankwaadi, bharwa (pimp) and katwa (circumcised)." The Wire. This is the cesspit India has descended into. "Prime Minister Narendra Modi...said decisions and action taken during the 'Amrit Kaal' (heavenly period) - the period until the centenary of India's Independence in 2047 - will impact the next one thousand years." DH. He presumably means that the BJP will be in power till then. Terrifying. BJP MP Nishikant Dubey justified Bidhuri's attack, saying Ali provoked him by using 'unpardonable' words against PM Modi. "I think it was enough for any patriotic public representative 'to lose his calm'," he wrote. HT. 'Patriotic' defines a person who loves his/her country, not one man. Mr Modi is not India and Indians who do not agree with him are equally patriotic. In fact, groveling sycophants are a greater danger to India than rational critics. Not surprising that AIMIM MP Asaduddin Owaisi said, "We see that a BJP MP abuses a Muslim MP in the Parliament." "This is the representative of the people for whom you voted...The day is not far off when there will be a mob lynching of a Muslim in the Parliament of the country." DNA. These words will resonate in all the capitals of the world. "The opposition Congress and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) have accused the BJP government of Gujarat of holding back waters in the Sardar Sarovar Dam on the Narmada River for two days before releasing a huge volume - 18 lakh (1.8 million) cusecs - all at once on Sunday, September 17, leading to floods in five districts." The Wire. Apparently this was done to celebrate Modi's birthday. Sycophancy over patriotism. "The biggest misconception about hate is that you can control it," wrote Vir Sanghvi. "Even though the Prime Minister and his top ministers are careful not to say anything that can be termed communal, the hate has now reached a level where it makes no difference what they say. Even the rest of the parivar - the RSS, the VHP, the Bajrang Dal and all other liberal bogeymen and villains - lost control of the fires of hatred long ago." Vulgar abuse degrades India and Hindus. Sticks and stones may break bones (wikipedia) but bones heal. Words are forever. Especially now.

Peanuts or premium?

"JP Morgan has made a significant decision to include India in the Government Bond Index-Emerging Markets (GBI-EM) index after nearly two years of monitoring." TOI. "India's inclusion in this prominent and widely-followed bond index will lower its borrowing costs and attract passive investments of approximately $30 billion into the domestic debt." "This development is also likely to stabilize the Indian rupee, reduce interest rates, lower bond yields, and subsequently reduce the cost of borrowing which will be a boost for the bottomline of companies." The promised "Amrit Kaal" (TOI) is almost here. Who knew that an American bank will be the agent? $30 billion is peanuts. "Economists and brokerages estimate this move will drive inflows as much as $40 billion over the next 18-21 months." Mint. Double peanuts. "Investors have about $2 trillion of funds available to invest, and about $100 billion to $150 billion of that is focused on India, according to Anu Aiyengar, JP Morgan Chase and Co's global head of mergers and acquisitions." TOI. 'It never rains but it pours.' But, who wants dollars? Not India. "Beyond rendering monetary policy ineffective, a high degree of dollarisation also results in loss of seigniorage, balance sheet risks, higher possibility of liquidity crises, and other financial risks." ORF. "India is trying to develop and implement systems that can bypass the dollar and strengthen the INR, particularly by entering into agreements with multiple nations to settle trade in domestic currencies." Still, "With domestic savings in a slump, exports flagging and import bills looking heavy, that's clearly good news. We need all the inflows we can get." Mint. But, foreign investors will demand a higher degree of discipline from India. "The Center would have to credibly abide by its fiscal glide path (rather relaxed though it already is), even as the Reserve Bank of India tightens up on inflation control for the sake of basic currency stability." Which is a polite way of saying that the government will have to stop throwing money to engineer growth so that it can boast about being the fastest growing economy. "The finance ministry...exuded confidence that the country will achieve 6.5 percent growth in FY24 on the back of improved corporate profitability, private capital formation and bank credit growth notwithstanding the risks of rising crude oil prices and monsoon deficit." ET. And the RBI will have to stop grinning at soaring inflation, because that weakens the rupee (RI), and maintain a "yield premium these bonds offer over US Treasury bills." Which means that yields on Indian government bonds must be attractively higher than yields on US Treasuries plus a premium for the fall in the value of the rupee against the dollar. The rupee has fallen from about 60 to the dollar in 2014 to over 83 to the dollar today. TC. Despite the RBI selling dollars to support the rupee. ET. It is good that JP Morgan likes our bonds. But, could it be too much of a good thing?   

Too late to smile.

Following the killing of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, "India accuses Canada of coddling terrorists who plot and incite violence against India, while Canada accuses India of murdering a Canadian citizen," wrote Terry Milewski. "As it stands, Canada's PM Justine Trudeau has not proved his claim," and "Already the polls suggest he would lose an election if it were held tomorrow." "The Trudeau Liberals have been plummeting in the opinion polls and Trudeau's minority government is beholden to Jagmeet Singh's New Democrats," wrote Terry Galvin. "Trudeau has also been under intense scrutiny in recent months owing to his close affinities with Beijing's agents of influence in Canada, whose involvement in election-interference operations during the 2019 and 2021 federal elections is now suddenly overshadowed by the spectre of alleged India government 'assassins'." In short, both Canadians are accusing Trudeau of cooking up allegations against India to improve his election prospects. The Times of India has printed them in full to prove its patriotism but will it dare to print anything similar about India's Dear Leader. That is the essential difference between a democracy with freedom of speech and a quasi fascist state. However, Trudeau has not cooked up anything. "American spy agencies provided information to Ottawa after the killing of a Sikh separatist leader in the Vancouver area, but Canada developed the most definitive intelligence that led it to accuse India of orchestrating the plot, according to Western allied officials." NYT. And, "US Ambassador to Canada David Cohen has claimed that 'shared intelligence among Five Eyes partners' had informed Prime Minister Justin Trudeau of Indian agents in the killing of Khalistan separatist." HT. Also, "The Biden administration has thrown its weight behind Canada's allegation that India is behind the assassination...virtually demanding that New Delhi work with Ottawa on an investigation despite Canada not presenting any evidence to make its case." TOI. Curious that the Indian government is not calling the US "absurd and motivated" and the hysterical media does not describe Biden as a terrorist-lover. Despite "agents of the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) visited Khalistani elements in the US and warned them that their lives may be at risk, according to a report by the Intercept." India Today. What more proof do you need? In fact, educated Indians have been quietly gloating over the killings of several Khalistanis in Pakistan and proudly comparing India's Research and Analysis Wing (R&AW) (wikipedia) to Israel's celebrated Mossad. Western intelligence agencies must have been aware of the killings but kept silent because of Pakistan's use of terror against India (wikipedia). When Mossad killed a Hamas militant in Dubai in 2010, "Paris, London and Dublin all demanded explanations from Israel on why passport details of their citizens had been used by the suspected hit squad." Countries got Interpol to issue Red Corner notices on all agents seen in CCTV footage. This unpleasant situation could have been settled by telling Trudeau that India is a peaceful nation of Mahatma Gandhi and we will investigate all allegations strenuously. Smile, drag it out and people would forget. But, of course, this government doesn't do smiles. Its first reflex is to reach for a knuckleduster. Now it's too late. 

Bonds and happiness.

"JP Morgan will include India in its widely tracked emerging market index, setting the stage for billions of dollars of inflows into the world's fifth-largest economy and helping it finance its current account and fiscal deficits." Reuters. "JP Morgan said 23 Indian Government Bonds (IGBs) with a combined notional value of $330 billion, all of which fall under the 'fully accessible route' for non-residents are eligible." "India's 10-year bond yield dropped 7 basis points to a two-month low of 7.0788% in opening trade but retreated to 7.12% by 0700 GMT, while the rupee gained 0.3% early to 82.25 per dollar before giving up some gains to trade at 82.93." Inclusion will start on June 28, 2024." India's weight in the index is expected to be 10%, the maximum for any country, and is expected to attract $30 billion from foreign investors. TOI. It is happening because "Russia's exclusion from the JP Morgan gauges after it invaded Ukraine may have added to incentives for the index compilers to fill the hole with Indian debt." Russia's weight was 8%. "Goldman Sachs expects India's inclusion to attract over $40 billion in bond market inflows within 18 months, with $30 billion from passive and $10 billion from active inflows." Mint. "The inclusion to the indices comes despite the government resisting changing the tax treatment for gains made by foreign investors from the sale of Indian government bonds, a major bone of contention between India and the index providers." "The inclusion of Indian government securities in the JP Morgan emerging market debt index has the potential to make the rupee stronger and reduce the government's borrowing costs, chief economic advisor (CEA) in the finance ministry V Anantha Nageswaran told reporters." Mint. "One challenge of more foreign investments coming into government bonds is the volatility it could introduce in the India bond market and currency at times based on investor response to global developments." Buying government bonds means financing its borrowing, or fiscal deficit. "The difference between total revenue and total expenditure of the government is termed as fiscal deficit. It is an indication of the total borrowings needed by the government." ET. India's fiscal deficit is expected to be 5.9% of GDP in 2023-24 and the government hopes to bring it down to 4.5% by 2025-26." pbi.gov.in. If the rupee falls against other currencies, interest and redemption payments will rise. However, the CEA expects the rupee to harden against other currencies as foreign investors start pouring money into India. That will surely make imports cheaper while raising the prices of our exports. "India's overall exports (merchandise and services combined) in August stood at $60.87 billion, which is 4.17 percent lower when compared with the same month last year." DH. Overall imports were down 5.97% to $72.50 billion, so that the trade deficit was $11.63 billion which was less than $13.58 billion last year. And, of course, JP Morgan could dump Indian bonds, as they dumped Russian ones, if the US government says so. Be careful in your happiness. Could bonds lead to bondage?

Hard state or victim?

In an outburst of jingoistic abuse of Canada, "This latest rift comes after India voiced strong concerns about the increasing activities of Khalistani separatist groups on Canadian soil. When Prime Minister Narendra Modi raised the issue with Canadian PM Justin Trudeau on the sidelines of the recent G20 summit in Delhi, Trudeau chose to defend Khalistanis." FP. "Refusing to acknowledge the problem, Trudeau said his country will always defend the freedom of peaceful protest." Demanding a separate state is not a crime and other countries do not dish out punishment without a trial. After communal violence in the Nuh district of Haryana the police used bulldozers to demolish houses of those they accused. "One district. 11 towns and hamlets. Five days. 1,208 buildings and other structures - overwhelmingly Muslim owned. 37 sites. 72.1 acres." HT. The Punjab and Haryana High Court called it an act of "ethnic cleansing" and stopped the demolitions. TOI. Trouble with jingoism is that you cannot strut around as a 'strongman' while pretending to be a victim at the same time. In the past, despite repeated terror attacks India did nothing and was seen as a 'soft State', wrote Abhijit Majumder. "Today, India is seen by the world as a 'hard State'; a rising superpower which unhesitatingly retaliates against the enemy with stunning force." "But lately, another angle has been added to India's response to external threats." "Since 2019 and especially in the last 24 months, over a dozen of India's avowed enemies have been killed in their safe havens overseas." "In 2023, three prominent pro-Khalistanis have died so far outside India, with reports now saying that gangster and alleged Khalistan supporter Sukhdool Singh was also shot dead in Canada." DH. "This will undoubtedly be a source of immense pride for Indian citizens, as it will reinforce their trust in the government's dedication to safeguarding their well-being and defending the nation's territorial integrity against any form of encroachment or infringement," wrote Vivek Shukla. "The Trudeau administration's failure to take minimum action bears significant responsibility for lifting the veil of Canadian sovereignty." Canada has a population of just 40 million, wikipedia, to India's 1,400 million, and Canada's armed forces consist of about 68,000 active personnel and 27,000 reserve personnel, wikipedia, compared to over a million in India. Canada has no need for defence because it has only one neighbor and that is Big Daddy, the US of A. "The US provided Canada with intelligence after the killing of Sikh separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, but communications intercepted by Ottawa were more definitive and led it to accusing India of orchestrating the plot, The New York Times reported. Mint. And "The Biden administration has thrown its weight behind Canada's allegation that India is behind the assassination of pro-Khalistan separatist Hardeep Singh Nijjar (designated by India as a terrorist), virtually demanding that New Delhi work with Ottawa on an investigation despite Canada not presenting any evidence." TOI. A 'hard State' should tell Biden to stuff it. Will it?        

Veblen to blame.

"Net financial savings is at the lowest in decades, reaching 5.1 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in Financial Year 2023 (FY23) compared to 7.2 percent FY22, according to data from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). Annual financial liabilities of households rose by 5.8 percent of GDP in FY23, compared with 3.8 percent in FY22." BS. "This means that households have been largely borrowing to fulfill their consumption needs." The Wire. "In absolute terms, net household assets in FY21 stood at Rs 22.8 trillion. In FY22, it dropped to Rs 16.96 trillion. It further fell to Rs 13.76 trillion in FY23." Incorrect, said the Finance Ministry. "Household Savings/Nominal GDP has remained constant - from around 20.3% to 19.7% as of FY22." ET. It said that overall household financial savings at current prices, including financial, physical and jewellery grew at CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 9.2% from 2013-14 2021-22, while the nominal GDP grew at a CAGR of 9.65% during the same period. "Households added Net Financial Assets of 22.8 lakh crore (22.8 trillion) in FY21, nearly 17 lakh crore in FY22 and 13.8 lakh crore in FY23." "Added" means added to previous assets, while "In absolute terms" means the total. Which one is fake? "The drop in net financial assets (also called net financial savings of households) in 2023 is largely due to a sharp increase in additional liabilities, which grew from Rs 5.9 lakh crore (Rs 5.9 trillion) in 2021-22 to Rs 15.8 lakh crore in 2022-23." TNIE. Not so, says the ministry, 62% of personal loans were for buying cars and real estate, both of which are collateralised. "Total passenger Vehicle Sales increased from 30,69,523 to 38,90,114 units" from FY22 to FY23 (April to May). SIAM. That is an increase of just 820,000 in the whole of the last financial year. According to industry estimates, around 46,000 - 47,000 luxury cars will be sold in India in the calendar year 2023. ET. "The Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations (ICRIER) has estimated that farmers in the country have lost around Rs 40,000 crore (Rs 400 billion) after the government dumped wheat in the market in a bid to control surging inflation." The Wire. So, farmers will not be buying houses or luxury cars. "India's savings rate climbed steadily from below 10% to a peak of 37% in 2010-11." wrote Ajit Ranade. "The gross savings rate fell from 36.9% of GDP in 2010-11 to 30.2% in 2021-22." "In 2022-23, growth in household financial liabilities was a whopping 76%. These again rose from Rs 36 trillion in July 2022 to Rs 47 trillion in July 2023." This may be a result of the Veblen effect in which people are keen to buy pricey products the pricier they get, wrote Madan Sabnavis. "The typical age for acquiring an automobile has come down to less than 30 years, while that for a home is in the bracket of 3-35 years now." "The Veblen effect is even stronger when it comes to electronic goods like mobile phones and laptops; consumers of these usually prefer to buy the latest." The problem is loans have to be paid back. And Veblen won't save defaulters.      

Pulwama redux.

"In a historic move, the Rajya Sabha on Thursday (yesterday) unanimously passed the women's reservation bill after an 11-hour debate. The bill was passed by the Lok Sabha on Wednesday." HT. A five-day special session of the Parliament was called for this week. India Today. On 20 September, "The Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha met in the new parliament building today at 1.15 pm and 2.15 pm respectively." NDTV. This unnecessary drama was purely for the coming general election which must be held by May 2024. wikpedia. However, a manna has fallen quite unexpectedly into  Mr Modi's hands. This came right after, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi was...showered with petals and greeted with slogans and drumbeats at the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) headquarters, where party workers joined hands to raucously congratulate him for the successful G20 summit." HT. Then, on 18 September, "Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is accusing the government of India of involvement in the fatal shooting of a Canadian Sikh leader," as "Canadian citizen Hardeep Singh Nijjar was brazenly shot dead outside a Sikh temple in Surrey, B.C. on June 18," CBC. This was Pulwama all over again. On 14 February 2019, 40 Central Reserve Police personnel were killed by a suicide bomber in a car in the Pulwama district of Kashmir. wikipedia. Following this outrage, Indian warplanes bombed a terrorist training camp at Balakot in Pakistan, wikipedia, and Modi won the general election in a landslide with 300 out of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha in April-May 2019. BBC. So, India has decided to get its retaliation in first (wikipedia).  When Canada expelled a top Indian diplomat who was head of Indian intelligence in Canada (CNBC), India immediately expelled a Canadian diplomat based in New Delhi. CNN. When Canada issued a travel advisory to its citizens for travel to India (BT), India immediately issued a travel advisory for Indians traveling to Canada. HT. On top of that, "India on Thursday (yesterday) suspended new visas for Canadians and asked Ottawa to reduce its diplomatic presence in the country." Reuters. "But Ottawa's countersignal is serious. Ottawa's core audience is not New Delhi, but its Five Eyes allies (Australia, New Zealand, the UK and the US). More than seeking to deter India from using similar methods in future, Canada is telling its allies that there are limits to the West's alignment with India," wrote Avinash Palwal. "Australia's Queensland state police have released documents of their investigation into graffiti that defaced a temple's outer wall in Brisbane," The Wire. Apparently, there was a "Hindu hand" in the anti-Modi graffiti that was done at night on 3 March but was blamed on Khalistani elements. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak "has confirmed that he raised the case of a Scottish Sikh who has been held by Indian authorities since 2017," in talks with Modi. BBC. And, "US President Joe Biden...expressed concern...that New Delhi was involved in the murder of a Sikh separatist leader in Canada, the Financial Times reported," and "Several members of the Five Eyes" also raised the killing. Reuters. In India, elections are won by extra-judicial killing, euphemistically known as "encounters", of alleged criminals. ET. But Canada is not Pakistan, and India is not the injured party this time. And, there is plenty of time to election.   

Farmers for elections.

"Indian economy growth forecast: Six out of 10 leading chief economists from both the public and the private sectors expect the global economy to weaken in the coming year." TN. "Despite this, a large majority are confident of growth in India." "Over 90 percent expect moderate or strong growth this year in South Asia, notably India," WEF (World Economic Forum) said in a statement. "Former Reserve Bank of India Governor C Rangarajan lauded India's ascent to become the world's fifth largest economy, hailing it as an impressive achievement. However, he has also underscored the need for India to accelerate its economic growth to improve the per capita income of the nation." ET. "According to calculations, he said, if the country achieves a seven percent rate of growth continuously over the next two decades and more, it will make a substantial change to the level of the economy and India may almost touch the status of a developed country." India's Gross National Income (GNI) per capita was $2,380 in 2022, compared to $12,830 in Russia, $48,890 in the UK and $12,804 for the world, in current dollars. World Bank. "Bajaj Auto does not see entry-level customers returning 'in the near future', its managing director told CNBC.., signaling a dull festive season for the traditional fuel based-segment as buyers weigh electric options." TOI. "Sales of two-wheelers reflect the financial health of India's rural economy and demand in the largest consumption segment - the lower and middle income households - that is battling a sharp rise in food prices due to erratic monsoons." "India's official inflation rate for the month of August is 6.83 percent, down from 7.44 percent the previous month," wrote Ajit Ranade. Almost 49% of the consumer price index (CPI) consists of food. "The government has used a combination of banning exports or levying a hefty export tax on a variety of agricultural products, including wheat, rice, sugar and onions. This affects the earnings of farmers who were eyeing lucrative profits from exports." "Apart from food inflation, oil prices, a slipping rupee-dollar exchange rate, one major contributor to the inflationary trend is the size of the fiscal deficit. India is running a high fiscal deficit, and its national debt is also rising." "India's fiscal situation is more dire than is acknowledged." "The government says that there is record production of wheat this year. It said the same for last year as well." And yet, "It has had a ban in place on wheat exports since May 2022 and on the export of atta (whole wheat flour) and similar products since August 2022," wrote Puja Mehra. Inflation is bad for winning elections. So, the government sold wheat from its stocks "at prices lower than its economic cost (of buying, transporting and storing)." This policy hammers the incomes of farmers. Between January and April this year, 830 farmers committed suicide in Maharashtra, but this is less than 945 suicides in the same period last year. Boast, spend, sacrifice farmers. Win elections in three easy steps.        

Accounts have to be settled.

"Pakistani arms were sold secretly to the US earlier this year, The Intercept reported. As per the report, the secret deal was done to secure a bailout from the International Monetary Fund." ET. "The arms deal was done for the purpose of supplying to the Ukrainian military." "Pakistan has sold munitions worth $900 million over the past year to Ukraine in a secret deal under pressure from the US, which in turn helped Islamabad secure an IMF bailout." TOI. "The report said Washington warned of dire consequences if (Imran) Khan remained in power and promised 'all would be forgiven' if he were removed." This is the typical dastardly "regime change" as practiced by the US for over 150 years, wikipedia, which has had disastrous consequences for local populations. The US engineered a coup in Chile 50 years ago. "During the ensuing 17-year rule of Gen Augusto Pinochet, more than 3,000 people would be disappeared or killed and some 38,000 would become political prisoners - most of them victims of torture." NPR. Iran has been the sole beneficiary of the stupid attack on Iraq in 2003 which removed Saddam Hussein. "A massive two-volume study published in 2019 by the US Army War College came to a similar conclusion, stating that 'an emboldened and expansionist Iran appears to be the only victor' of the conflict." The Intercept. "Despite relative peace following the defeat of ISIS, Iraq today remains a powder keg with widespread unemployment, environmental degradation, and poverty that its ruling elites, widely denounced by Iraqis as kleptocrats and puppets of foreign countries, have been unable of unwilling to address." Not having learnt from the Iraq debacle the imbeciles in the US attacked Libya in 2011 to get rid of Muammar Gaddafi. No accurate figure for the number of Libyans killed in the illegal attack on Libya is available because of deliberate obfuscation by the US and its NATO allies, but it has been estimated at over 30,000. BBC. The death of Gaddafi resulted in a decade-long civil war between different militias fighting for control, with death and injury to countless innocent civilians. wikipedia. With no government or rule of law in Libya, it has become a center for illegal migration to Europe. "Libya is a major departure point for people from Norther Africa and elsewhere desperate enough to make the perilous Mediterranean crossing." AP. The EU is now paying the Libyans to forcibly stop migrants. As a direct result of the attack on Libya by NATO, "Many thousands are dead or missing in the port of Derna after two dams protecting the city burst...as they were battered by Storm Daniel." mronline. The US is now engaged in the total destruction of Ukraine in an effort to carry out a regime change in Russia. Amazingly the poodles of the International Criminal Court (ICC) have issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin. Meddling in Pakistan, a source of terror attacks on Indian soil, like the recent attack in Anantnag in Jammu an Kashmir (TIE), is a crime against India. Time for Nuremberg style trials (Britannica) of genocidal Western leaders. Have to catch them first.  

Attrition of activists.

"Canada expelled a top Indian diplomat as it investigates what Prime Minister Justin Trudeau called credible allegations its government may have had links to the assassination in Canada of a Sikh activist, an accusation that India rejected as 'absurd'." AP. "Trudeau told Parliament that he brought up the slaying with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi at the Group of 20 summit last week in new Delhi. He said he told Modi that any Indian government involvement would be unacceptable and that he asked for cooperation in the investigation." "Canada's National Security Advisor (NSA) has accused India of meddling in the country's affairs, putting the world's biggest democracy in the league of authoritative nations such as Russia, China Iran." WION. India does not tolerate activists. In 2020, Gautam Navlakha, in prison for his work on civil liberties, was denied new spectacles when his were stolen. BBC. Not just that, 83-year-old Stan Swami, who suffered from Parkinson's Disease, was denied straws or plastic beaker for drinking. He contracted Covid in prison and died in July 2021. In August, "Indian police intervened to stop a meeting of prominent activists, academics and politicians discussing global issues ahead of the summit of the Group of 20 industrialized and developing nations that will be hosted in New Delhi next month, the meetings' organizers said." AP. They called the meeting 'We20' as in 'We the people'. "The BBC has spent more than a year investigating accusations against the Indian government that it is running a sinister and systematic campaign to intimidate and silence the press in the region (Kashmir)," wrote Yogita Limaye. "The BBC has repeatedly asked the regional administration and police to respond to the allegations against them." "We have not received a reply." Instead, "The Jammu and Kashmir police has threatened to initiate legal actions against the BBC over a recent report done by it on the plight of media persons in the Union Territory." DH. Trudeau did not attend the G20 official dinner. "Trudeau wasn't present at the official G20 gala dinner, according to the Canadian media." India Today. When Trudeau was unable to leave India because of a technical problem with his plane India apparently offered Air India One. "The report said the Canadian side declined the offer and instead chose to wait for the backup." HT. Naturally, "After placing a 'pause' on the Early Progress Trade Agreement or EPTA in August, the Canadian Government has now indefinitely postponed a trade mission to India scheduled for October." HT. The International Criminal Court (ICC) has issued an arrest warrant on Russian President Vladimir Putin. ICC. Nothing should be done against any Indian official. General election to be held by May 2024. wikipedia. Let the people decide.

It's a long story.

"The Indian rupee currently trades at around 83 to the dollar. Has the rupee been falling in recent years? Or has the dollar been rising?" Firstpost. "For instance, in September 2013, the rupee was trading at 85 to the Euro. Ten years later, it is at 89." "If the rupee was indeed falling, its value would go down with respect to all currencies. Instead, it is the dollar which has become stronger against everything else." "India's forex reserves dropped by $4.992 billion to $593.904 billion for the week ended September 8, according to the latest RBI data." News18. "The country's forex kitty had reached an all-time high of $645 billion in October 2021. The reserves took a hit as the central bank deployed the reserves to defend the rupee amid pressures caused majorly by global developments since last year." The rupee was at 59.5 to one dollar in 2014 (Thomas Cook) and is trading at 83.10 this morning (xe.com), which is a fall of about 39.5% in 9.5 years. "While the rupee has lost 9.8 percent in calendar year 2022," the Japanese yen was down 22.6% against the US dollar, South Korean Won was down 17.1%, pound sterling was down 16.6% and the Euro was down 14.2%. TOI. However, the Indonesian rupiah was down 8%, the Singapore dollar was down 5.4% and the Hong Kong dollar was down just 0.7%. The value of the rupee also depends on the whims of the government. "In November 2016, Prime Minister Narendra Modi shocked the world by outlawing the 500 ($6) and 1,000 rupee bills in which the country held 86 percent of its cash. This time the coup de grace has fallen on the Rs 2,000 rupee banknote," wrote Andy Mukherjee. "Sovereign cash should have no room for questions." "The 10,000 Singapore dollar ($7,400) note was retired a decade ago," "But it remains legal tender, as do the $1,000 bills, which went away in 2021." "But if you discover them in your aunt's attic, they're still very much money and not worthless paper." That is exactly what has happened to the old notes in India. Worthless paper. The rupee is also expressed in its real effective exchange rate (REER) against a basket of currencies based on inflation rate. Against a basket of 40 currencies, and taking 2015-16 as the base year, the REER for the rupee is slightly overvalued but is projected to drop in December 2023. indiabudget.gov.in. The value of the rupee reflects what it can buy and that depends on how high prices rise, or inflation. In the year to July 2023, India's inflation rate was 7.5%, while the average for the G20 was 5.8%. Rates in the UK, Germany and Italy were higher than 5.8%. Over 3-year and 5-year periods India was near the top of G20 average, but over a 10-year period India averaged higher inflation than richer Western nations. ET. Since inflation is consistently higher than the average for G20 nations (minus Turkey) the rupee will weaken against most currencies. Not the fault of the dollar.    

The disappearing trick.

"French supermarket chain Carrefour has slapped price warnings on products ranging from Lindt chocolates to Lipton Ice Tea to pressure suppliers such as Nestle, PepsiCo and Unilever to cut their prices." CNN. "Carrefour is putting stickers on products that have shrunk in size but cost more even though raw material prices have eased." "Consumer groups say 'shrinkflation' is a widespread practice, which supermarkets like Carrefour are also guilty of in their private label products." "The European Central Bank raised its key interest rate to a record high of 4%...but, with the euro zone economy in the doldrums, signaled that the hike, its 10th in a 14-month-long fight against inflation, was likely to be its last." Reuters. The ECB sees inflation coming down gradually to its target rate of 2% from "5.6% in 2023, 3.2% in 2024 and 2.1% in 2025". "For decades, internal migration in Germany only flowed in one direction: from the countryside to the cities." DW. "But this trend seems to have stopped," with "more and more people between the ages of 30 and 49 with children, and young professionals between the ages of 25 and 29 have been moving to the countryside since 2017." What people are looking for is "more and cheaper space to live, more nature and less pollution". To counter Labour's 20-point lead in opinion polls, UK prime minister Rishi Sunak's "plan to save his job: Don't look back. Hope for the best." ET. "A massive retreat of funds from Chinese stocks and bonds is diminishing the market's clout in global portfolios," and "Foreign holdings of the nation's equities and debt have fallen about 1.37 trillion yuan ($188 billion), or 17% from a December-2021 peak through the end of June this year, according to Bloomberg calculations." ET. "That's before onshore shares witnessed a record $12 billion outflow in August alone." Are markets nervous because of an ongoing purge in China? "Defence Minister Li Shangfu, who has been missing from public view for more than two weeks has been placed under investigation by Chinese authorities" which "relates to procurement of military equipment." Reuters. Eight other senior officials are also under investigation. In July, "According to Indian intelligence agencies monitoring developments in China, Wu Guohua, deputy commander of the PLA Rocket Force, died under mysterious circumstances on June 6," and "his senior and commander of the PLA Rocket Force, Lieutenant General Li Yuchao, was found missing from a promotion ceremony of the Chinese military in late June." India Today. Also in July, China's Foreign Minister Qin Gang was suddenly removed from power and apparently placed under investigation. BBC. Is Xi Jinping consolidating his power by removing his own men or is someone pruning him down to size? Is there any truth that Xi was given a dressing down by party elders at the Beidaihe meeting last month? TOI. Maybe, Xi will disappear next. It's like magic where a person disappears and then reappears. Only, this is permanent.

Master of the unconventional.

 "The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) refused the government's proposal to extract Rs 2-3 lakh crore (Rs 2-3 trillion) from its balance sheet in 2018 for pre-election expenditure ahead of Lok Sabha polls in the following year, former central bank deputy governor Viral Acharya said." The Wire. "It was effectively an attempt to ensure back-door monetisation of fiscal deficit by the central bank, he said." "Another reason for exerting pressure on RBI was the government's failure to raise divestment revenues. Divestment shortfall sought to be met via transfers from the RBI is an annual ritual now, he said." Looting the RBI. Splendid. Firstly, the RBI makes money from seigniorage, which is "the difference between the value of currency/ money and the cost of producing it. It is essentially the profit earned by the government by printing currency." ET. Secondly, "The RBI reportedly earns its profits primarily from the purchase and sale of government securities, the interest earned from lending to banks and an interest earned on bond holdings earned on open market principles." indiatimes.com. Unable to resist government bullying, the then Governor of RBI Urjit Patel resigned prematurely in December 2018. ET. Prof Viral Acharya also resigned his post as deputy governor 6 months prematurely. BT. The present Governor of the RBI Shaktikanta Das, a retired IAS officer, was appointed in December 2018. wikipedia. In September 2019, the RBI transferred Rs 1.76 trillion of apparently surplus reserves to the government. TOI. In May 2021, "The RBI's central board has approved a higher than expected surplus transfer of 991.22 billion rupees ($13.58 billion) to the government, it said in a statement." HT. This enormous surplus accrued in just 9 months as the RBI moved its accounting year to April-March from July-June, to synchronise it with the official financial year. "Making monetary policy is often like flying blind due to the lagged information in growth and inflation.., RBI deputy governor Michael Debabrata Patra said." ET. Which is why, "(Governor) Das' lack of formal education in economics has proven to be a gift that allows him to make unconventional choices with great success." The Print. Absolutely. Under Das the RBI has kept interest rate as low as possible. Interest rate was kept at 4% for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022 (NDTV), even though India's CPI inflation rate jumped to 5.5% in October 2019 and was running above RBI's tolerance level of 6% till April 2022, when it was 7.8%. RI. Now, the RBI has held on to 6.5% interest rate since February (BT), even though the inflation rate in July jumped to 7.4% and then fell to 6.83% In August. ET. Instead the RBI has reduced liquidity through incremental cash reserve ratio (ICRR) which forces banks to keep 10% of their Net Demand and Time Liabilities as cash reserve with the RBI, instead of 4.5% as at present. Hindu. The RBI will not pay any interest on this deposit but will charge 6.75% interest if banks borrow from it. This was a master-stroke, admired Madan Sabnavis. The government loots the RBI, the RBI loots commercial banks. Who pays?

No rocket science. Just common sense and intuition.

"RBI governor Shaktikanta Das has deservedly received an A+ rating in the recently released Global Finance Central Banker Report Cards 2023." ET. "Under Das, RBI has a harmonious, constructive relationship with the ministry (of Finance)." "Economics isn't rocket science. It's more common sense. It requires experience and intuition to get decisions right." So, the RBI can be run by anyone from the government who would presumably have oodles of experience and intuition and a harmonious, constructive relationship with politicians. Reassuring indeed. "Retail inflation in India moderated to 6.83 percent in August on an annual basis after surging to 7.4 percent in July, government data showed." ET. "CPI core inflation for August stood at 4.8 percent as against 4.9 percent in July." "Tomato prices, which had skyrocketed in July, had started cooling in late August." In August, "India has imported unspecified quantities of tomatoes from Nepal to boost supplies of the vegetable, an official has said, amid a decline in prices." HT. Thereby, profits of Indian farmers were transferred to those in Nepal. Now, "The prices of tomatoes have crashed in major markets on oversupply," and "have become so cheap that farmers are dumping their produce rather than incur losses in storage and transport." HT. Let farmers bear the brunt. Intuition and common sense. "RBI's central target for inflation is 4%," and "Its chief policy rate of 6.5% remains negative in real terms." Mint. "But what if India's inflation tracker is inaccurate?" Nearly, half the CPI index consists of food and beverages and as the country grows richer, the proportion of consumer spending on food becomes relatively less. So, the theory goes, that CPI inflation is actually much less than what is reported and "Data from 2022-23 survey expected this year could help." But, what if the present index is actually too low? In 2022, "Services sector contributed over 50% to India's GDP, highlighted the Economic Survey 2021-22." pib.gov.in. "Gross Value Added (GVA) at current prices for the services sector is estimated at 96.54 lakh crore (Rs 96.54 trillion) in 2020-21. The services sector accounts for 53.89% of total India's GVA of 179.15 lakh crore Indian rupees. With GVA of 46.44 lakh crore, the industry sector contributes 25.92%." Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI). "Often we tend to compare with the US," but "In the US, services dominate the CPI index with a collective weight of 58.2% and transport, recreation, education and medical prices together account for 20.2% if the index. In our index, these form under 10%," wrote Madan Sabnavis. Maybe we are not that different. Maybe our inflation is higher than what is reported. Will that alter the "constructive relationship"?

Advantage Mr Modi.

 "The pound weakened against the dollar on Wednesday (yesterday) after Britain's economy contracted at its sharpest rate in seven months in July as strikes and poor weather weighed on output." Reuters. "The UK economy contracted by 0.5%, figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed, a worse-than- expected contraction of 0.2% and the largest drop in monthly output since December 2022." "What do a Bugatti supercar, a Hilton hotel and the Chagos Islands have in common? They all feature on a long and increasingly bizarre list of stories behind the financial crisis sweeping Britain's local authorities." TOI. "Councils have borrowed over 133 billion pounds combined, and the fallout is turning into yet another headache for PM Sunak." No wonder that since March 2023, "Almost seven years and four prime ministers since the UK voted to leave the European Union, polling suggests public sentiment has turned against Brexit." CNBC. It has been labeled as 'Bregret'. "Prime Minister Rishi Sunak's ruling party now trails the main opposition Labour Party by more than 20 points across public polls ahead of general election in 2024." However, "Rishi Sunak said he 'won't rush' into a UK trade deal with India, as he arrived in the country for a summit of G20 leaders." BBC. "There have been reports that Mr Modi is keen to strike a slimmed-down deal to reduce import taxes, with some easier access for services firms, ahead of election next year." On the other side of the pond, President Joe Biden is not doing that much better despite an extremely biased media, and most of the universities, trying their best to talk up his popularity. "By almost any objective measure, Americans are doing much better economically than they were nearly three years ago, when President Joe Biden took office. Still a majority - 58% - say Biden's policies have made economic policies worse, according to a CNN poll." "Nearly a quarter of Democrats said Biden's policies have worsened economic conditions. Ninety one percent of Republicans agreed." "A perfect storm is coming for the US economy." BI. "Even as interest rates skyrocketed over the past 18 months, strong consumer spending kept the US economy moving." "But the delayed impact of those higher interest rates, together with student-loan payments restarting and pandemic-era savings running dry, is set to put fresh pressure on consumers." Also, "The number of Americans seeking jobless benefits for the first time fell unexpectedly last week to the lowest level since February," and "the rolls of those continuing to receive jobless benefits beyond the first week fell by 40,000 to 1.679 million in the week ended Aug. 26 from a revised 1,719 million a week earlier." ET. The only thing common between Modi, Sunak and Biden is that all three have to face the people next year. Modi kicks off in May (wikipedia), Biden is on 5 November (wikipedia), and Sunak can hang on till January 2025 (BBC). All three depend on inflation and the economy. Only Modi has  an army of 'Bhakts'. DH.   

Planes and GNI per capita.

"Canada's Prime Minister Justin Trudeau belatedly left India Tuesday (yesterday) after an aircraft breakdown forced a two-day extension of his rocky visit to New Delhi for the G20 summit." ET. "It could be unbelievable for people in the developing world that Canada's prime minister is flying in an aircraft which is nearly 40 years old." ET. "Of Canada's five CC-150s, only three are currently in service." On the other hand, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of India uses a B777 aircraft, two of which were retrofitted with "similar security measures as the Air Force One planes used by the US President". The total cost of purchase and retrofitting came to Rs 8,400 crore (Rs 84 billion). ET. And why not? In 2022, at current prices, Canada had a Gross National Income (GNI) per capita of $52,960, while India's per capita GNI was a paltry $2,380. World Bank. According to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) the median income of full-time workers in 2022 would have been $54,132. "The mean American income in 2020, according to Statista, was $71,456". First Republic. All G20 leaders, plus UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres visited Raj Ghat to pay homage to Mahatma Gandhi. HT. "Winston Churchill disparagingly referred to Mohandas Gandhi as the 'half-naked fakir'. Gandhi regarded the expression as a compliment." mkgandhi.org. On the other hand, Modi's sartorial elegance, frequent changes of clothes and fancy headgear would put any supermodel in the shade. "Over the course of the last year, Canada has welcomed 2,26,450 Indian students, making the subcontinent the top source for international students entering the North American country." ET. We can take it for granted that none of these students will return to India. How many Canadians want to stay in India? Trudeau was deliberately ignored during the G20 summit and "According to sources, Trudeau has not been participating much in multi-lateral meetings and has not been given much coverage." News18. "Modi scolds Trudeau over Sikh protests in Canada against India." Reuters headline. On 1 September, Canada "unexpectedly said it had paused talks on a proposed trade treaty with India, just three months after the two nations said they aimed to seal an initial agreement this year." Reuters. Canada could, of course, severely curtail the number of students it takes from India, which will cause an absolute outcry. Modi is no friend of the West, wrote Pankaj Mishra. "Sweeping denunciations of the West as selfish and arrogant, deserving of a comeuppance, are now routine in India. More remarkably, as Modi's ministerial colleagues as well as social media trolls go after George Soros, India is openly participating, for the first time in its long history, in the global networks of anti-Semitism." A poster by the BJP showed how Modi is more popular than any other leader in the world. Which is why Modi can do whatever he likes. Within India. Canada is a member of the G7 and NATO. Don't think you can go on insulting it. 

Lesson from Ramayana.

"The central government has called a five-day special session of Parliament from September 18, Union Minister of Parliamentary Affairs informed." BT. "This comes nearly three weeks after the end of the Monsoon Session of Parliament, which saw a massive ruckus amid demands by the opposition parties to have a thorough debate on the Manipur issue." "While the first day of the session will be held in the old building, the remaining part of the session will be held in the new building that was inaugurated by Prime Minister Narendra Modi on May 28." HT. On 8 August, 2022, "The Union government has set the ball rolling for the construction of the Prime Minister's residence complex - one of the most important and high- profile components of the Central Vista redevelopment project," which will "come up in a total built-up area of 2,26,203 square feet and is estimated to cost Rs 467 crore (Rs 4.67 billion)." The Print. Perhaps, we will see Modi moving into his new palace and campaign for a third term in office as the new Emperor of India. The agenda of the special session of Parliament has not been disclosed, leading to speculation about sinister designs of the government. "Maharashtra Congress chief Nana Patole...alleged the agenda of the upcoming special session of Parliament is to separate Mumbai from the state and declare it as a Union Territory." HT. To that Union Minister Pralhad Joshi said, "In a democracy, nobody should play politics over the issue." That is hilarious indeed. In a democracy the government must answer to the people and parliament is the center for politics. Is there any doubt that the BJP is planning something to give it an edge in the coming general election? Ominously, "Last week, media reports said that the Indian Army had passed an order to all its soldiers going on leave - soldiers are authorised 60 days annual leave - to spend time doing 'social service' to enhance 'nation building' efforts," wrote Sushant Singh. "What are they supposed to do?" They have to draw attention to this government's social schemes while ignoring those of opposition parties. Using soldiers as BJP agents is dangerous. India and Pakistan became independent on the same day. While governments in India, under successive prime ministers (Britannica) till Manmohan Singh, have kept the army away from politics, Pakistan suffered its first coup when Gen Ayub Khan seized power as martial law administrator and later made himself president. TOI. Since then there has been a succession of military rulers in Pakistan. "It can be argued that more ordinary Pakistanis than ever are now clear that the military establishment is the ultimate arbiter of power in Pakistan." Dawn. It is instructive that India has defeated Pakistan repeatedly in armed conflicts despite generals being in charge. wikipedia. Civilian leaders have a habit of dying suddenly once an army assumes power. See Pakistan. Remember what happened when Ram went for the golden stag. google. Learn from it.        

India dumped at G20.

In a great triumph for Prime Minister Narendra Modi, "On September 9 and 10, the G20 New Delhi Summit was held in New Delhi, hosted by India as the G20 Presidency, and Mr KISHIDA Fumio, Prime Minister of Japan attended it." Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Japan. "G20 leaders and geopolitical experts on Sunday (yesterday) hailed the New Delhi Summit as a resounding success and said the meeting has once again put the bloc at the center of global governance." TOI. Apparently, the entire tamasha was organised at a meager expense of just Rs 4100 crores (Rs 41 billion). BT. Of course, this official expense does not take into account the enormous inconvenience for the citizens of Delhi, the loss of business for shop owners, financial losses of daily-wage earners and the physical suffering of slum dwellers, somehow sheltering from the rain. "The central business and government district of New Delhi came to a standstill on Friday with markets shuttered, schools closed and traffic restricted," and wretched lives hidden as, "City authorities have also demolished slums near the summit venue." Reuters. There was unanimous agreement by all 20 nations on the Delhi Declaration, "And themes such as ensuring growth, getting sustainable development goals (SDGs) back on track, battling climate crisis, preparing for health emergencies, reforming multilateral development banks (MDGs), dealing with the debt crisis, spreading digital public infrastructure (DPI), generating jobs. bridging the gender gap, and giving a voice to the Global South dominate the letter and spirit." HT. There was even a unanimous agreement on Ukraine which was titled "For the planet, peace and prosperity". With the US, EU, Russia and China, even with the absence of Putin and Xi Jinping, in complete agreement, it shows that the document is just a list of pious wishes which no one has any intention of following. To neutralise China's One Belt, One Road (OBOR), a new economic corridor will be built. "In a session co-chaired with US President Joe Biden, Modi said the proposed corridor would emerge as an effective means of economic integration between India, West Asia and Europe." BT. First, a rail connection from Vietnam to India through Myanmar and Bangladesh. Then a sea link from Mumbai to Fujairah in the UAE. From there a rail link to the Israeli port of Hiafa across the Saudi desert made famous by Lawrence of Arabia. Finally, from Haifa a hop to Italy, Germany and France. TNIE. Apart from the incalculable cost, there are mountains to cross and a civil war in Myanmar. A Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline, which would have brought cheap gas from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan, Pakistan and India, giving an economic boost to all the countries, could not be constructed in over 3 decades. The Print. Perhaps, the most important irrelevant event at the G20 was Mr Modi representing Bharat and not India. TOI. China could not resist a dig at India, saying "there are more important things". India Today. Nothing is more important to Modi than to win the coming general election. So, dump India. 

PM of Indian origin.

"Rishi Sunak has arrived in New Delhi for the G20 summit - a meeting of leaders from the 19 leaders biggest economies in the world plus the European Union. He becomes the first prime minister of Indian heritage to visit the country." That is not a surprise as he is the first non-white person to become the prime minister of Britain. Perhaps, it is a surprise that someone of Indian origin has risen to that post considering the way Indians were treated by the British colonial regime. "I have an intimate family connection to the independence movement in India," wrote Justin Rowlatt. Justin's great-grandfather Sidney Rowlatt wrote the Rowlatt Act which led to the massacre at Jallianwala Bagh in Amritsar on 13 April 1919. "The law suspended basic civil liberties for those suspected of plotting against the Empire and meant you could be imprisoned without trial for up to two years simply for having a seditious newspaper." We Indians are good learners. Now we have the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act (UAPA) under which anyone can be imprisoned without bail for months without the state having to provide any evidence of wrongdoing. legalserviceindia.com. India still retains the British law against sedition. "The sedition law was first drafted by Thomas Macaulay in 1837 and was added to the Indian Penal Code (IPC) in 1870 by James Stephen as Section 124A." Outlook. A recent "Law Commission has backed the penal provision for the offence of sedition." Britain's exit from the European Union (EU), known as Brexit, was finalised on 1 January 2021. "Now that it's no longer in the EU, the UK is free to set its own trade policy and can negotiate deals with other countries." BBC. The EU had a GDP of $16.641 trillion in current US dollars in 2022. World Bank. Leaving free trade with such an enormous economy just across the Channel was an act of monumental stupidity. "The UK government has delayed health and safety checks on food imports from the European Union for the fifth time in three years," because "A recent study by the London School of Economics found that Brexit was responsible for about a third of UK food price inflation since 2019, adding nearly 7 billion pounds ($8.8 billion) to Britain's grocery bill." CNN. "India and UK appear to be close to concluding the free trade agreement (FTA) that has been in the works since January 2021." BT. India insists on data localisation for blanket surveillance of Indian citizens while "The UK opposes India's demand for mandatory transfer of source codes, algorithms and encryption keys." Mint. "Rishi Sunak said he 'won't rush' into a trade deal with India." BBC. We fervently hope so. Otherwise, all Indians will be stuck in a gulag under UAPA and 124A. We got independence from the British. How can we get freedom from our lot?