Three times over nine times.

"India's gross domestic product (GDP) crossed $3.5 trillion in 2022. Economists have opined that India will be the fastest-growing G20 economy over the next few years." ET. "Why then, do all three global rating agencies, namely Fitch, S&P and Moody's have the lowest investment-grade rating on India?" "Among all metrics, the Indian government's debt seems to be the biggest barrier to superior investment rating. The general government debt-to-GDP ratio is at a high of 84 percent," whereas, "The Baa-rated median for this ratio is currently around 56 percent." "The Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to Government of India, V Anantha Nageswaran, on Friday, June 16, defended the rise in India's debt, saying it is in line with India's economic growth." The Wire. "He pointed out that between 2004 and 2014, government debt increased ninefold, whereas, between 2014 and 2023, it increased threefold." Which means that if the debt was Rs 1000 in 2004, it increased by 9x that is to Rs 9000 in 2014. Since then it has increased by 3x, which means to Rs 27,000. Surely, much worse? Very clever but pure politics. "Nageswaran further justified the sustainability of India's debt by explaining that the country's nominal GDP growth is around 11-12%, while the cost of borrowing is only 7%. According to him, this indicates that the debt is manageable and has not grown disproportionately." Nominal GDP is measured at current prices which means it is inclusive of inflation. Investopedia. So, as long as inflation remains high, the growth in nominal GDP should also be robust. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) predicts real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2023-24 and consumer price (CPI) inflation at 5.2%. BT. However, "Retail inflation declined to a 25-month low of 4.25% in May mainly on account of softening prices of food and fuel items." BI. High inflation is hitting ordinary people. "In times of inflation and diminishing spending power" "Sectors such as beauty, packaged goods, affordable fashion, and value hotels have shown much stronger business performance compared to big-ticket items like cars and houses." ET. Also, the number of high paying jobs may be shrinking. "India's outsourcing giants are slashing hiring and getting projects done with existing workers, a rare pullback that could weigh on the economy and affect engineering students who have seen information technology as the sector of choice for decades." Reuters. To increase earnings, "Nifty and Bank nifty options reached a peak of 5.75 billion contracts in May 2023." byjus.com. "Recently a report found that nine out of 10 individual traders in the equity futures and options segment incurred net losses." India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "said India's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at $3.75 trillion in 2023. Mint. This would be just over 3% of the global GDP pegged at $105.6 trillion by the IMF. China's share is at 18% while that of the US is at 25%. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought $2.2 billion of Indian equities in the first nine days in May, taking total inflow since March to $4.5 billion." ET. Rating agencies are American. They would want US investors to make money but without unforeseen risks. They must be studying India very carefully. It would be unwise to take them for fools.