Wednesday, June 07, 2023

Apocalypse isn't good news.

"The Pakistan government's total debt has increased 34.1 percent year-on-year to Rs 58.6 trillion at the end of April." ET. "The domestic debt amounted to Rs 36.5 trillion (62.3%) while the external debt accounted for a 37.6% share with Rs 22 trillion at the end of April." "The inflation level rose by a whopping 36.4 percent in the year in April" and "Pakistan has witnessed a fall of nearly 13 percent in remittances sent from abroad in the first ten months of the fiscal year due to the wide gap between the rates of the dollar in interbank and open/grey market." The fall in remittances is in the money sent through official channels and which adds to its foreign exchange reserves. On 25 May, "A central bank statement said...Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves had dropped to $4.19 billion, barely enough to cover a month of controlled imports." Reuters. Pakistani expatriates are sending money through grey market or 'hawala' channels and, since this money stays abroad, it does not add to the badly needed foreign exchange reserves. "Foreign remittance service providers attribute the re-emergence of grey channels to the exchange rate fluctuations that has widened the gap between interbank and open market rates. These gaps promoted the return of 'Hundi or Hawala' networks, where overseas Pakistanis are getting good rates for their remittances." Tribune. Meanwhile, "With Pakistan's debt-to-GDP ratio in a danger zone of 70%, and between 40% and 50% of government revenues earmarked for interest payments this year, only default-stricken Sri Lanka, Ghana and Nigeria are worse off." Tribune. "The economy size in dollar terms declined to $341.554 billion in the outgoing FY23 from $375.449 bn in FY22." Dawn. "The decrease in the economy's size can be attributed to the highest-ever depreciation of the rupee in any year. The per capita income in dollar terms fell to $1,568 in FY23 from $1,766 in the previous year and $1,677 in FY 21." "Pakistan is hurtling towards an apocalypse," because "There are simply too many of us, too many to educate, to keep healthy, to provide jobs for, or to govern in a manner that could ensure the semblance of an ordered society." Dawn. "Each year, there are in  this country 1.4m unwanted births and 2.2m abortions and miscarriages that could be avoided through family planning." An exploding population, falling income and prices rising at 36.4% is an incendiary mix. "The public reaction to (Imran) Khan's arrest has been unprecedented." Dawn. "With the situation getting out of control of civilian law enforcement, the army was called in. Internet and social media services were suspended." "But the images of people ransacking the residence of a top regional commander and attacking military installations in various parts of the country without resistance presented a picture of a fractured state." A civil war in Pakistan is surely good for India, right? "It's not just the economy, but also the rising terrorist threat that has imperiled national security." Probably not.

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