Wednesday, June 21, 2023

Implicit is sensed.

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to reduce US growth and contain price pressures, even though they held rates steady at their meeting last week." ET. "It may make sense to continue moving rates higher in the coming months, but at a more moderate pace," and "The timing of additional rate hikes will be based on incoming data, he said." "The Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates while the European Central Bank pushed on, and both central banking heavyweights signaled a likelihood of further hikes." ET. "In China officials are reducing rates to help stimulate a weak economy that includes a slump in real estate, a drop in business investment and record-high youth unemployment." In its June meeting, "The monetary policy committee (MPC), which has three members from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and three external members, kept the repo rate steady at 6.50%. HT. Because, "Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), grew 4.25% in the month of May on the back of lower cooking oil and vegetable prices." HT. And, "even core inflation - it measures the non-food, non-fuel component of the CPI basket - continues to come down and reached 5.13%, the lowest value since June 2020 according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) database." "India saw a sharp rise in goods inflation until September 2022. But, as countries opened up, the demand for contact-intensive services picked up, and services inflation started rising," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. The problem is that, "The weights of items in the CPI basket are based on the 2011-12 Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES)." "In 2021-22, households spent less than 30% on food, but food has a 45.9% weight in CPI." "In total, 49% of household spending was for services, but the sector has only 23.5% weight in CPI." Why not update the data on the spending pattern of Indian households? Because the government does not want people to know. In November 2019, "The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said...that the findings of Consumer Expenditure Survey 2017-18 will not be released due to data quality issues and the ministry would separately examine the feasibility of conducting the next survey in 2020-21." HT. Did not happen. Changing the CPI basket to reflect today's consumer spending patterns may show a much higher inflation rate and that may force the RBI to raise rates. Which the government does not want. "The estimates of a 16.1 percent increase in GDP value in the financial year 2023 due to rising inflation, which is more than twice the real GDP growth rate of 7.2 percent. This disparity is a measure of inflation in terms of IPD (Implicit Price Deflator)," wrote Dipu Rai. In fact, India's GDP is still being calculated with 2011 as the base year. World Economics. This allows us to claim to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. India Times. Since no one knows, claim whatever you like. It works.

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