Monday, June 26, 2023

A toxic mix.

"During the 1990s, inflation was low while employment, wages and productivity were up. Global trade nearly doubled. Investments in developing countries surged. The stock market rose." ET. "Over the years, reckless lending, asset bubbles, currency fluctuations and official mismanagement led to boom-and-bust cycles in Asia, Russia, Latin America and elsewhere." "Supply chain chokeholds stemming from the pandemic and subsequent recovery had already underscored the fragility of a globally sourced economy." "Although previous economic orthodoxy has been abandoned, it is not clear what will replace it. Improvisation is the order of the day." "The European Union is looking at an array of tools to ensure it punches at its global weight, as countries such as China and Russia show an increasing willingness to use trade and the control of critical supply lines to further political and military goals." ET. "The UK government has said the financial sanctions imposed by western nations have cut off $350 billion of Russia's $604 billion foreign currency reserves." BBC. That is naked international plunder. "In December 2022, the EU and G7 set a maximum price of $60 per barrel for Russian crude oil." Smaller economies are caught in a debt trap. "In decades past, the International Monetary Fund - a central component of the liberal democratic order forged by the United States and its allies at the end of World War II - was the only source of cash for nations that struggled to pay their bills. China has since emerged as a major lender for countries from Asia to Africa to Latin America." ET. "But as strapped governments negotiate with creditors to diminish their debt burdens, the IMF and the Biden administration have balked at providing relief until the Chinese participate. Otherwise, they assert, the Chinese lenders are free-riding on debt forgiveness extended by others." China refuses to cooperate. As if this were not enough, "Central bankers across the globe are delivering a message: Slow and steady won't win the race against inflation." CNN. On 22 June, "The Bank of England unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest interest rate by a half percentage point, stepping up its fight against the worst bout of inflation since the 1980s and warning it may have to hike again." Yahoo. "It's harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high." "It's just a matter of how much pain they are willing to inflict on an economy through rate hikes." Next to India, "Cash-strapped Pakistan's $350 billion economy is in a meltdown, with inflation at a record 38%." At least 209 Pakistanis desperate to reach Europe were crammed in an overloaded boat which sank off the coast of Greece. Only 12 survived. Reuters. It's not just economics, it's politics. And, it kills. 

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