Lethal exports.

US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) "Auditors uncovered 'deficient' manufacturing cleaning and storage controls during a visit to an Aurobindo Pharma Ltd facility at Anakapalli, eastern India, according to a FDA report obtained by Bloomberg News." DH. "Sampling tools weren't cleaned and maintained to prevent contamination at the plant, which produces certain active pharmaceutical ingredients - the raw materials core to making drugs. Laboratory controls also didn't include the establishment of scientifically sound and appropriate specification, designed to assure that drug products conform to appropriate standards of identity, quality and purity, the report said." If this is what they are selling to the US, imagine what they must be selling to Indians? "On June 1, Intas Pharmaceuticals received communication from the US FDA stating that the company's manufacturing facility in Ahmedabad - Special Economic Zone (Pharmez) near Matoda - has been listed under import alert." Forbes. "A section of the Indian pharma sector suggests, off the record, that the increasing regulatory scrutiny could have something to do with US Big Pharma lobbying against Indian generic manufacturers." American Atmanirbhar? In 2022, "Mumbai-based drug major Lupin's regulatory woes don't seem to be ending this year. After being issued two Form 483s by the US FDA to the Pune and Nagpur plants in October, a warning letter was also issued to the Tarapur facility recently." ET. Lupin is a major manufacturer of drugs against Tuberculosis (TB). Lupin. "India's TB incidence for the year 2021 is 210 per 100,000 population - compared to the baseline year 2015 (incidence was 256 per 100,000 of population in India); there has been an 18% decline which is 7% percentage points better than the global average of 11%." PIB. 210 per 100,000 comes to a total of 2.94 million patients in a population of 1.4 billion Indians. Any lapse at Lupin could have dire consequences for the nation. Contaminated drugs can kill and contaminated medicines from India have killed innocent babies in other countries. "The Indian manufacturer of cough syrups that Uzbekistan said last year had poisoned 19 children used a toxic industrial- grade ingredient rather than the legitimate pharmaceutical version, two sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters." DH. Before that, 70 children were killed in the Gambia by cough syrups from India which contained ethylene glycol and diethylene glycol. wikipedia. In 2021, at the height of the Covid pandemic, patients developed chills, shivering and high fever when given Remdesivir infusions in hospitals across North India. "Only the Bihar regulator identified the cause of the mysterious illness. Their testing found Cadila's batch V100167 to contain bacterial endotoxins - compounds present in the preotective envelopes of bacteria, which cause fever, chills and life-threatening septic shock in humans," wrote Priyanka Pulia. Who cares? Just deny. Just as over 4 million people did not die of Covid. ET. Indians are cheap. Others beware.

Manufacturing billionaires.

"The 2023 Forbes list shows that, worldwide, billionaires are down slightly in numbers and wealth from the pandemic peaks but still up sharply over the last two decades. There were 500 billionaires worth a total of less than $1tn in 2000; now there are more than 2,500 worth over $12tn," wrote Ruchir Sharma. Some countries added more. "Ironically, these include most prominently nations with deep socialist roots, including France, Sweden, Russia and India." 'Bad billionaires' are those with inherited wealth in rent seeking industries like real estate and commodities and 'good billionaires' are those in productive industries like manufacturing and technology. "India has seen a boom in good billionaires, particularly in manufacturing, they now account for, 34 of India's 169 billionaires, a fourfold increase in five years and the largest share of any industry." Hallelujah. But, what about the other 135? "The 'Big 5' consisting of Reliance Group, Tata Group, Aditya Birla Group, Adani Group and Bharti Telecom have grown at the expense of smaller firms, said Viral Acharya, who was Reserve Bank Deputy Governor between 2017 and 2019. At the same time the government's 'sky-high-tariffs' have shielded these conglomerates from competition by foreign firms, as per the Bloomberg report." ET. They are causing inflation through high prices and should be broken up. "According to a report by wealth management firm Marcellus, the top 20 profit generators earn a staggering 80% of the nation's profits," wrote Ajit Ranade. "About 80% of the decadal increase in stock-market wealth measured as the value of the Nifty index was captured by just 20 companies."  "India has dropped three spots to the 40th position on the latest Global Competitiveness Index released by the International Institute for Management Development (IMD)," but "it is an improvement from the 43rd rank secured in 2019-2021." Wion. If our 'good billionaires' were investing in manufacturing there would be an increase in  jobs which, in turn, should increase consumption expenditure. However, even though the GDP grew by 6.1% in the quarter ending March 2023, "private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) growth slowed down considerably over the course of 2022-23." HT. "With a growth of just 1.3% manufacturing is the most underwhelming component of Gross Value Added (GVA) in the annual numbers of 2022-23. Manufacturing sector GVA actually saw a contraction in the quarters ending September 2022 and December 2022." The March 2023 quarter GVA grew by just 0.6%. Young people do not want to work in factories. While there is an enormous demand for government jobs, "Finding people willing to uproot themselves for the factory jobs most crucial to long-term economic growth can be difficult. Training them can be expensive, and keeping them can be nearly impossible." DH. It seems that, though there may have been a growth in good billionaires in India, the baddies still rule. About 4 times as many. 

Whose money is it?

"Marking the third round of investment in Adani stocks in the last four months, US based GQG Partners and others on Wednesday (yesterday) bought around $1 billion worth of the conglomerate's stocks." ET. "The GQG Partners Global Quality Equity Fund seeks to invest in high-quality companies with attractively priced future growth prospects while diversifying by end-consumer risk. Bridgehouse. In March, "US boutique investment firm GQG Partners Inc has bought shares worth $1.87 billion in four Adani group companies, marking the first major investment in the Indian conglomerate since a short-seller's critical report sparked a stock rout." Reuters. Then, GQG invested another $330 million-$530 million in Adani stocks in May. BT. So, GQG has invested over $3 billion in the Adani Group in three rounds. This is despite, "According to a Bloomberg report, the US Attorney's Office in Brooklyn, New York, has sent inquiries in recent months to institutional investors with large holdings in the India conglomerate, one person familiar with the inquiries said. The requests for information were focused on what Adani Group told those investors, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the probe isn't public. The Securities and Exchange Commission also has a similar probe underway, two other people said." ET. Perhaps, the SEC should ask whether GQG is investing funds from American investors or investors in India. The Hindenburg report said, "We have identified 38 Mauritius shell companies controlled by Vinod Adani or close associates." "The Vinod-Adani shells seem to serve several functions, including (1) stock parking / stock manipulation (2) and laundering money through Adani's private companies into the listed companies' balance sheets in order to maintain the appearance of financial health and solvency." In March, "The Centre has told Parliament it has no data on offshore shell companies owned by Indians, the admission coming just four days before Rahul Gandhi said huge investments were made in the Adani group through alleged shell companies and asked whose money it was." The Telegraph. Don't know or won't tell? In blatant interference to hide facts, "For more than a decade, sockpuppets - some of them being company employees - created 'puffery' around billionaire Gautam Adani, his family and the ports-to-power conglomerate he helmed by adding non-neutral material and removing warnings from information on Wikipedia, the free internet-based encyclopedia has alleged." BT. "Thanks to a 173-page report by a six-member panel appointed by India's Supreme Court, we now have a fairly good idea where the country's probe into the Adani Group is headed: Nowhere," wrote Andy Mukherjee. So whose money is GQG investing, American or Indian? Hope it's not the Indian taxpayer's.

Obama, Zia and Prabhakaran.

"Leaders of India's governing party have criticised former US President Barack Obama for his recent remarks on Muslims in the country." BBC. "if I had a conversation with Prime Minister Modi, who I know well, part of my argument would be that if you do not protect the rights of ethnic minorities in India, then there is a strong possibility that India at some point starts pulling apart." he said. That has not gone down well with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) of Modi, as various leaders of the party rushed out to proclaim their allegiance. Referring to Assam Police filing charges against opposition leaders in other states, a journalist tweeted, "Has an FIR been filed in Guwahati yet against Obama for hurting sentiment? Is Assam police on its way to Washington to get Obama offloaded from some flight and arrest him?" To which Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma responded, "There are many Hussain Obama in India itself. We should prioritize them before going to Washington." Without naming Obama, Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said, "We want friendship with the US but we get remarks about religious freedom in India. It is during his tenure as President that the US bombed six Muslim countries and dropped more than 26,000 bombs in these countries. How will people trust these allegations?" TOI.  Does not matter if trust or not. It is what the Muslims believe, whether it is the truth or not. A 2020 US Religion Census estimated that there are 4.45 million Muslims making up 1.3% of the US population. wikipedia. While the 2011 population census in India estimated that there are 172.2 million Muslims, or a huge 14.2% of the Indian population. census 2011.co.in. Despite the small percentage of Muslims, the US has not been safe from attacks. In 2009, US Army Major Nidal Hassan shot 13 people dead and injured 30 others at Fort Hood near Killeen, Texas. wikipedia. In 2015, a US-born citizen of Pakistani descent Syed Rizwan Farook and his Pakistan-born, green card holder wife Tashfeen Malik shot 14 people dead and injured 22 others at a Christmas party at San Bernadino, California. wikipedia. Jawed Naqvi tries to draw a parallel with the US support of Ziaul Haq of Pakistan. "While Zia's role in creating a monstrosity would soon show up as the Taliban and Al Qaeda in Afghanistan," Zia "a widely cheered Western spearhead in South Asia is mostly remembered for celebrating the demise of the Soviet Union." Dawn. Now, the US wants to use India against China. Perhaps a more terrifying monstrosity would be the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) which fought for an independent homeland for Hindu Tamils in Sri Lanka.  Stanford. The more than 20 years of civil war that followed, along with Covid, has bankrupted Sri Lanka, forcing it to default on its debt. wikipedia. The Finance Minister should be worrying about our economy instead of what Obama did. But then, she was incensed to see that a ration shop in Telangana did not display her boss's photo. HT. We Hindus normally display photos of our gods. Better not to conflate the two.

A toxic mix.

"During the 1990s, inflation was low while employment, wages and productivity were up. Global trade nearly doubled. Investments in developing countries surged. The stock market rose." ET. "Over the years, reckless lending, asset bubbles, currency fluctuations and official mismanagement led to boom-and-bust cycles in Asia, Russia, Latin America and elsewhere." "Supply chain chokeholds stemming from the pandemic and subsequent recovery had already underscored the fragility of a globally sourced economy." "Although previous economic orthodoxy has been abandoned, it is not clear what will replace it. Improvisation is the order of the day." "The European Union is looking at an array of tools to ensure it punches at its global weight, as countries such as China and Russia show an increasing willingness to use trade and the control of critical supply lines to further political and military goals." ET. "The UK government has said the financial sanctions imposed by western nations have cut off $350 billion of Russia's $604 billion foreign currency reserves." BBC. That is naked international plunder. "In December 2022, the EU and G7 set a maximum price of $60 per barrel for Russian crude oil." Smaller economies are caught in a debt trap. "In decades past, the International Monetary Fund - a central component of the liberal democratic order forged by the United States and its allies at the end of World War II - was the only source of cash for nations that struggled to pay their bills. China has since emerged as a major lender for countries from Asia to Africa to Latin America." ET. "But as strapped governments negotiate with creditors to diminish their debt burdens, the IMF and the Biden administration have balked at providing relief until the Chinese participate. Otherwise, they assert, the Chinese lenders are free-riding on debt forgiveness extended by others." China refuses to cooperate. As if this were not enough, "Central bankers across the globe are delivering a message: Slow and steady won't win the race against inflation." CNN. On 22 June, "The Bank of England unexpectedly raised its benchmark interest interest rate by a half percentage point, stepping up its fight against the worst bout of inflation since the 1980s and warning it may have to hike again." Yahoo. "It's harder for central banks to clamp down on inflation when it becomes sticky, or persistently high." "It's just a matter of how much pain they are willing to inflict on an economy through rate hikes." Next to India, "Cash-strapped Pakistan's $350 billion economy is in a meltdown, with inflation at a record 38%." At least 209 Pakistanis desperate to reach Europe were crammed in an overloaded boat which sank off the coast of Greece. Only 12 survived. Reuters. It's not just economics, it's politics. And, it kills. 

Woman trouble.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi returned to India Sunday (yesterday) night after his six-day visit to the US and Egypt during which several landmark agreements were signed." HT. "President El-Sisi conferred Modi the 'Order of the Nile' award - Egypt' highest state honor. This is the 13th highest state honor conferred upon Prime Minister Modi." A great man. He also "toured the great pyramids of Giza on the outskirts of the Egyptian capital, which were included in the Seven Wonders of the World. Escorted by Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, PM Modi visited the three pyramids of the 4th dynasty erected on the rocky plateau on the west bank of the Nile River near Al-Jizah (Giza) in Northern Egypt." Hope the PM enjoyed his sightseeing. Meanwhile, "Security forces said...that they were forced to let go of the 12 Kanglei Yawol Kanna Lup (KYKL) militants after a 'women-led' mob of around 1,500 surrounded them and thwarted the combing operation in ethnic-violence-hit Manipur." HT. "The issue of women-led mobs thwarting security forces from conducting combing operations has been happening across Manipur, where ethnic violence Between the Meiteis and the Kukis has claimed 113 live since May 3." Women have been at the forefront of blocking movement of security forces and supplies. "Supplies of essential items including baby food and medicines and movement of security forces have been hit in several areas of Manipur because of blockades of both National Highways leading to the state by tribals as well as at least six arterial roads by women-led vigilante groups." India Today. The violence is between Kukis who live in the hills and are mainly Christian and the Meiteis who live around the Imphal Valley and are mainly Hindus. The Statesman. The Kukis oppose Schedule Tribe (ST) status for the Meiteis because that will eat into jobs reserved for them. It is strange that the BJP government in Manipur, wikipedia, is so restrained and considerate towards women even though they are thwarting security forces. This was not the case at Shaheen Bagh in Delhi when Muslim women were protesting peacefully against the Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) when the humble biryani was deemed anti-national. NDTV. UP Chief Minister shamed Muslim men "claiming men had pushed women and children to spend winter nights at sit-in protests while they slept at home." NDTV. On 20 June, "At least three delegations of politicians from conflict-ridden Manipur - two from the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party and one from the state Congress - have failed to have an audience with Prime Minister Narendra Modi so far in spite of having camped at the National Capital for some days now." The Wire. Must have been busy packing for his so important trip abroad. But, be not afraid because, "Union Home Minister Amit Shah said Prime Minister Narendra Modi has been 'constantly monitoring the Manipur situation since day one' and 'guiding us with full sensitivity'." The Wire. We Hindus believe the Third Eye gives clairvoyance. wikipedia. Manipur is so lucky.

Jugalbandi of A-I.

"Prime Minister Narendra Modi and US President Joe Biden's 'jugalbandi' in Washington has inaugurated a new age of America-India relations. As the prime minister put it during his address to the joint session of the US Congress: 'In the past few years, there have been many advances in AI - Artificial Intelligence. At the same time there have been more momentous developments in another AI - America and India'." News18. From GE F-414 jet engines to MQ-9B UAVs, Micron Technology and Applied Materials Inc., the US seems to have emptied its pockets for Modi. But, what does it want in return? "Geopolitics determines trust, strategy and future economics," wrote Indrani Bagchi. "For the US, as it struggles to emerge from its China-induced torpor," "The Quad is only the beginning." The Quad, or the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, is a security dialogue between Australia, India, Japan and the US to counter increasing military threats by China. wikipedia. The Quad Leaders' Joint Statement on 20 May, 2023 said, "We believe all countries have a role in contributing to regional peace, stability and prosperity, as well as upholding international law, including the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity, and the rules-based international order." The White House. In short, China will get a bloody nose if it attacks any country. At first China was dismissive. "It seems there is never a shortage of headline-grabbing ideas," Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said. "They are like the sea foam in the Pacific or Indian Ocean: they may get some attention, but soon will dissipate." CNN. But later, he called the Quad an "Indo-Pacific NATO" and accused it of "trumpeting the Cold War mentality" and "stoking geo-political rivalry". Beijing worries that "A distributed network of land-based anti-ship missiles and other precision-strike capabilities stationed in allied countries could hinder Beijing's ability to threaten Taiwan" "But the worst-case scenario from Beijing's perspective is that the Quad could serve as the foundation of a broader global anti-China coalition," wrote known sinophile Kevin Rudd. "The current geopolitical situation needs closer India-US relationship and a more robust Quad. India may not join the war in the Taiwan Strait. But if it can keep China occupied in the Himalayas and the Indian Ocean, it would have done its bit to preserve global order," wrote Bagchi. That would mean the loss of thousands of Indian soldiers and huge damage of infrastructure as China would retaliate. Remember US support of Iraq against Iran? "A half million lives were lost, perhaps another million injured. The economic cost of the war exceeded one trillion dollars." Brookings. And then, in the greatest act of stupidity, the US removed Saddam Hussein and "Rather than serving as an anchor for a new era of stability and American preeminence in the Persian Gulf, the new Iraq represents a strategic black hole, bleeding Washington of military resources and political influence while extending Iran's primacy among its neighbors." Brookings. The Quad may be a beginning, but what will the end be? A quagmire?

Foreign and desi bulls.

"India's benchmark Sensex stock index hit a record on Wednesday (21 June), while the Nifty50 logged a new closing high amid sustained foreign inflows into Indian equities backed by the country's strong growth prospects." Reuters. "The S&P BSE Sensex hit an all-time high at 63,588.31," as "Foreign investors poured in Rs 738.12 billion ($8.99 billion) so far in this financial year. They were net sellers in the previous two financial years, with a record outflow of Rs 1,400.10 billion in FY22." Selling by foreign investors made little difference as domestic investors have been pouring money into stocks. "New demat account openings rose most in nine months in May, fueled by a broader market rally and record derivative volumes." Mint. A demat, or dematerialised account, holds shares in a non-physical format like a bank account. HDFC Bank. Openings of new demat accounts indicate ordinary individuals are investing in shares. "This was highest in August, when new account additions shot up 73% or 2.55 million, according to depository data." This would have been in the last financial year when foreign investors were selling. In addition to buying shares, "India's options frenzy rose to a crescendo in May despite regulatory warnings, with Nifty and Bank Nifty options volumes hitting a record 5.64 billion contracts, as the Bank Nifty hit a new high while the Nifty approached its record during the month." Mint. "The jump in index options volumes, in turn, drove total derivatives volumes to a record 5.75 billion contracts in May." While people are spending on stocks, "The nation is heading for a slowdown, analysts who cover it say, as rising inequality squeezes consumer spending among the poor - and hundreds of millions in the middle class." ET. This was supported by the RBI yesterday. "Citing national accounts data and corporate results, the Reserve Bank of India in its latest monthly bulletin has noted that higher inflation in India is slowing down personal consumption expenditure, which in turn is leading to a moderation of corporate sales and holding back private  investment in capacity creation." ET. In which case why is corporate borrowing rising? "In the years 2020-21 and 2021-22, Indian firms had pared their gross debt by 4% and 2%, respectively. However, gross debt rose by nearly 19% in 2022-23, the sharpest increase in over a decade." Mint. "Large listed firms borrowed more aggressively in 2022-23. Their aggregate debt to equity ratio rose sharply to 0.57 from 0.48 in 2021-22." Some banks are hiding bad loans. "RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank has come across instances of some lenders trying to conceal their stressed assets." Zee. Meanwhile, "Adani Group stocks were under the spotlight and lost up to 10% in Friday's (yesterday's) trade amid a Bloomberg report suggesting US authorities are looking into what Adani Group made to its American investors following Hindenburg Research's scathing report that accused the company of using offshore companies to secretly manipulate its share prices." ET. Buy Indian shares. All in agreement.

Red carpet to a new era.

"US President Joe Biden and Narendra Modi hailed a new era in their countries' relationship after the White House rolled out the red carpet for the Indian prime minister on Thursday (yesterday), touting deals on defense and commerce aimed at countering China's growing influence," Reuters. "Biden and Modi signed off on a deal to allow General Electric to produce jet engines in India to power Indian military aircraft, through an agreement with Hindustan Aeronautics. US Navy ships in the region will be able to stop in Indian shipyards" and "India will procure US-made armed MQ-9B SeaGuardian drones." US chip maker Micron Technology will invest in Gujarat and India will join the US in space research. China, watch out. All that is for the future. As of now, "India's pharmaceutical exports have maintained their upward trend, reaching $25.3 billion, roughly Rs 2,08,231 crore (Rs 2.08 trillion), for the financial year 2022-23 despite setbacks, according to data from Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India (Pharmexcil), a division of the ministry of commerce and industry." Sadly, in January 2023, "The World Health Organisation has warned against the use of two India cough syrups for children that have been linked to deaths in Uzbekistan." "In October 2022, the WHO sounded a similar alert, linking four cough syrups made by another Indian firm to the deaths of 66 children from kidney injuries in The Gambia." Who cares? Just deny. Alarmingly, "US inspectors have in recent months uncovered wide-ranging lapses at factories run by some of India's biggest pharmaceutical firms," and "detailed insanitary conditions in manufacturing plants and poorly trained staff; shredded paperwork and under-investigated customer complaints; and evidence of exporting contaminated drugs to the US." DH. Customers are treated with the utmost contempt by all businesses in India. "The FDA (Food and Drug Administration), for instance, has banned drugs produced by Intas Pharmaceuticals from being imported into the US," wrote Mihir Sharma. "There's a distinct possibility economic nationalists in the US could seize the examples such as Intas to force the onshoring of medicine production, even of generics that can and should be cheaply and efficiently elsewhere." Meanwhile, "India's exports in the month of May declined 10.3 percent to $34.98 billion while imports fell 6.6 percent to $57.1 billion, government data showed." ET. "India's merchandise trade deficit in May stood at $22.12 billion, according to a Reuters calculation." And so, "Wilful defaulters and companies involved in fraud can go for a compromise settlement or technical write offs by banks and non-banking finance companies, as per the new RBI circular." The Wire. "In 2018, it was reported that out of 5,600 wilful defaulters, 15% were from Gujarat." Hope we don't make jet engines like cough syrup. Planes could fall out of the sky. Spectacular.

Implicit is sensed.

"Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said policymakers expect interest rates will need to move higher to reduce US growth and contain price pressures, even though they held rates steady at their meeting last week." ET. "It may make sense to continue moving rates higher in the coming months, but at a more moderate pace," and "The timing of additional rate hikes will be based on incoming data, he said." "The Federal Reserve held the line on interest rates while the European Central Bank pushed on, and both central banking heavyweights signaled a likelihood of further hikes." ET. "In China officials are reducing rates to help stimulate a weak economy that includes a slump in real estate, a drop in business investment and record-high youth unemployment." In its June meeting, "The monetary policy committee (MPC), which has three members from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and three external members, kept the repo rate steady at 6.50%. HT. Because, "Retail inflation, as measured by the Consumer Price Index (CPI), grew 4.25% in the month of May on the back of lower cooking oil and vegetable prices." HT. And, "even core inflation - it measures the non-food, non-fuel component of the CPI basket - continues to come down and reached 5.13%, the lowest value since June 2020 according to data from the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE) database." "India saw a sharp rise in goods inflation until September 2022. But, as countries opened up, the demand for contact-intensive services picked up, and services inflation started rising," wrote Deepa Vasudevan. The problem is that, "The weights of items in the CPI basket are based on the 2011-12 Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES)." "In 2021-22, households spent less than 30% on food, but food has a 45.9% weight in CPI." "In total, 49% of household spending was for services, but the sector has only 23.5% weight in CPI." Why not update the data on the spending pattern of Indian households? Because the government does not want people to know. In November 2019, "The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) said...that the findings of Consumer Expenditure Survey 2017-18 will not be released due to data quality issues and the ministry would separately examine the feasibility of conducting the next survey in 2020-21." HT. Did not happen. Changing the CPI basket to reflect today's consumer spending patterns may show a much higher inflation rate and that may force the RBI to raise rates. Which the government does not want. "The estimates of a 16.1 percent increase in GDP value in the financial year 2023 due to rising inflation, which is more than twice the real GDP growth rate of 7.2 percent. This disparity is a measure of inflation in terms of IPD (Implicit Price Deflator)," wrote Dipu Rai. In fact, India's GDP is still being calculated with 2011 as the base year. World Economics. This allows us to claim to be the fastest growing major economy in the world. India Times. Since no one knows, claim whatever you like. It works.

Vote cutters work both ways.

"Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the US has assumed huge significance amid global economic and geopolitical headwinds. The White House is pulling out all the stops to welcome Mr Modi - it's a state visit, the highest level of diplomatic protocol the US accords to visiting leaders." BBC. "The US has long viewed India as a counterbalance to China, but Delhi has never been fully comfortable with owning that tag." But, "India's diplomacy has been getting more assertive about saying that this is the country's moment on the global stage." China has noticed. Wang Yi, China's former Foreign Minister, said, "As feared by many Indian elites, Washington's vigorous efforts to strengthen economic and trade cooperation with India is primarily to slow down China's economic development. However, this geopolitical calculation of the US is doomed to fail, because China's position in the global supply chain cannot be replaced by India or other economies." BT. India has not forgotten the cowardly, unprovoked murder of 20 Indian soldiers by Chinese thugs in uniform on 18 June 2020 at Galwan Valley in Ladakh. ET. Had the Chinese not been such uncivilized barbarians India would have no need for defense cooperation with the US. "This visit seems to have split America's Democratic Party system into two. One part, to which president Joe Biden belongs and which sent out the invitation to Prime Minister Modi," and, "The other part, the far-Left strain among Democrats which wields considerable influence in media, academia, social sector and the deep state," wrote Abhijit Majumder. "This network of global Left and anti-nationalists carved out of radical Dems and UK's Labour and funded by chaos entrepreneurs like George Soros have long been in bed with Islamists." Former President Donald Trump was made to lose the 2020 election "not by 'in the face' criminality-like outright hacking of voting machines, but what can be better described as 'death by thousand cuts'," wrote Satya Dosapati. "Word is that there are about 220 to 240 Lok Sabha seats identified across the country where there is tacit agreement among Opposition parties to field only one strong candidate with a sprinkling of weak candidates from the rest of the Opposition parties." That has been happening in India for decades. These dummy candidates are known as 'vote cutters'. "By definition a vote-cutter party or candidate is installed by a more dominant player in constituencies where it wants to cut through the voter base of its competing player," wrote Prabal. Did Modi's party, the BJP, benefit from vote cutting by the AIMIM party in Bihar? Quint. Did the BJP win a record-breaking victory in Gujarat assembly election because the AAP acted as a vote cutter? DH. Ralph Nader is still blamed by Democrats for acting as a 'spoiler' in 2000 which resulted in a victory for George Bush. Washingtonian. The problem is not that Modi is popular. The problem is that his base is a bunch of paranoid fanatics who will not tolerate any criticism. That is fascism. Britannica.   

Homies and cronies.

"An estimated 6,500 high net worth individuals (HNWI) are projected to leave India in 2023. This number represents a decrease from the previous year's net outflow of 7,500 individuals, according to Henley's Private Wealth Migration Dashboard 2023." ET. Presumably, these are dollar millionaires. But, there is nothing to worry about because "the net loss in 2023 is just 1.9% of the total number of residential millionaires, 344,600. However, the overall number, too, saw a slight decline from last year's 357,000," wrote Tuaseef Shahidi. "The US, Canada and Australia continue to be the top destinations not just for the rich but for Indians from lower income brackets as well." "Prohibitive tax legislation" and "convoluted, complex rules relating to outbound remittances" are reasons for the flight of HNWI, says the report. The fleeing millionaires are probably those who earned their money through legitimate means and hard work and their number is a negligible 1.9% of the total. The vast majority are comfortably protected. The Lok Sabha, which is the lower house of the Parliament, has 543 elected members. mea,gov.in. Of these 543 MPs, 475 or roughly 88% are crorepatis. ADR. 1 crore is 10 million and one dollar buys around Rs 82 at today's exchange rate. xe.com. So, one would need to possess at least Rs 82 million, or Rs 8.2 crore, to be a dollar millionaire. Still, "In an India where the per capita income is Rs 143,000 (IMF), where about 20 percent of the population lives on less than $1.9/day, and where about 95 percent of households earn less than Rs 800,000 annually, how does one interpret 88 percent people's representatives being crorepatis?" This was in 2019 when the current Lok Sabha was elected. The next general election in India must be held by May 2024. wikipedia. In 2023, "Out of 558 MLAs in current state assemblies, 486 (87%) are crorepatis whereas, 239 (43%) ministers have declared criminal cases against themselves, according to a report by the Association for Democratic Reforms (ADR)." HT. The average assets of ministers was Rs 16.63 crore and those of criminals was Rs 21.21 crores. That makes them definite dollar millionaires. The protection offered to politicians was illustrated by BJP MP Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh when he stated that he will definitely run for the 2024 election. ET. Then there are our crony capitalists. The Economist published its 2023 crony-capitalism index on 2 May. Quartz. "The Economist used data from a Forbes list of the world's billionaires and their worth. Each individual was labeled 'crony' or not, based on the person's source of wealth." "India's crony capitalists' wealth in sectors such as banking, defence, extractive industries, and construction made for nearly 8% of the country's GDP, the report said, up from 5% in the past decade. In 2021, India was seventh on the index." The cronies and members of the same ilk are safe. Outsiders make a run for it. Safety first.    

Mayhem in Manipur.

On 3 May 2023, a clash erupted between the Meitei people, who constitute about 53% of the population of the northeastern state of Manipur, and the hill tribes of Kuki and Zo. wikipedia. The Meiteis live around the Imphal valley while the Kukis and the Nagas live in the hills. The Kukis are opposed to the Meitei demand for Scheduled Tribe status. "At least 80 people have been killed and more than 40,000 have been displaced in the state on the Myanmar border that is governed by Prime Minister Narendra Modi's party." Reuters. On 12 June, "The Manipur violence, which began on May 3, has claimed 121 lives and 352 injured as per official sources. There have been 4305 arson attacks since the violence began." India Today. "When a raging mob of thousands of men allegedly stormed the Manipur Police Training Centre at Pangei in Imphal East at 2.30 pm on 4 May, the lone guard at the gate watched helplessly." The Print. "The men allegedly kicked open the door, stole everything they could lay their hands on - including dummy guns used in training police personnel - and walked away with the inventory register." "What happened in Pangei was repeated over the following month with arms reportedly being looted from police battalions and stations at multiple locations in Manipur." Couple of days back, "A mob of nearly 1,000 persons made an arson attempt at the Palace compound in Imphal." Scroll.in. There were several attempts to vandalise homes of BJP leaders and the BJP's office. Three days back, "A mob set Union minister RK Ranjan Singh's residence afire in Manipur's imphal," and "Officials said some vehicles parked outside the house were also damaged but no one was injured in the arson attack around 10 pm." "To call this civil war may be unpalatable but it would not be inaccurate," wrote Sushant Singh. Where is Modi? "With more than 135 lives lost and 60,000 persons rendered homeless, Modi's silence is baffling. It is a tactic he regularly uses to deal with inconvenient issues. From the Chinese ingress on the border of Ladakh, the allegations of Adani's crony wrongdoing, wrestlers' protests on alleged sexual harassment by a BJP MP, holding the decadal census, to the holding of elections in Kashmir, he has avoided talking about issues that reveal him in poor light." Instead, "Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressed the 102nd edition of his monthly radio program 'Mann ki Baat' (sermon of the mind) on Sunday (yesterday)." HT. In which he "lauded India's increasing capability to deal with natural disasters," and "asserted that India is the mother of democracy which holds democratic values and the Constitution supreme." This cynical blather should be hilarious, but, unfortunately, it typifies Modi's callous  disregard for the welfare of Indians and his only objective to stay in power. Any which way.     

Three times over nine times.

"India's gross domestic product (GDP) crossed $3.5 trillion in 2022. Economists have opined that India will be the fastest-growing G20 economy over the next few years." ET. "Why then, do all three global rating agencies, namely Fitch, S&P and Moody's have the lowest investment-grade rating on India?" "Among all metrics, the Indian government's debt seems to be the biggest barrier to superior investment rating. The general government debt-to-GDP ratio is at a high of 84 percent," whereas, "The Baa-rated median for this ratio is currently around 56 percent." "The Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to Government of India, V Anantha Nageswaran, on Friday, June 16, defended the rise in India's debt, saying it is in line with India's economic growth." The Wire. "He pointed out that between 2004 and 2014, government debt increased ninefold, whereas, between 2014 and 2023, it increased threefold." Which means that if the debt was Rs 1000 in 2004, it increased by 9x that is to Rs 9000 in 2014. Since then it has increased by 3x, which means to Rs 27,000. Surely, much worse? Very clever but pure politics. "Nageswaran further justified the sustainability of India's debt by explaining that the country's nominal GDP growth is around 11-12%, while the cost of borrowing is only 7%. According to him, this indicates that the debt is manageable and has not grown disproportionately." Nominal GDP is measured at current prices which means it is inclusive of inflation. Investopedia. So, as long as inflation remains high, the growth in nominal GDP should also be robust. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) predicts real GDP growth of 6.5% in 2023-24 and consumer price (CPI) inflation at 5.2%. BT. However, "Retail inflation declined to a 25-month low of 4.25% in May mainly on account of softening prices of food and fuel items." BI. High inflation is hitting ordinary people. "In times of inflation and diminishing spending power" "Sectors such as beauty, packaged goods, affordable fashion, and value hotels have shown much stronger business performance compared to big-ticket items like cars and houses." ET. Also, the number of high paying jobs may be shrinking. "India's outsourcing giants are slashing hiring and getting projects done with existing workers, a rare pullback that could weigh on the economy and affect engineering students who have seen information technology as the sector of choice for decades." Reuters. To increase earnings, "Nifty and Bank nifty options reached a peak of 5.75 billion contracts in May 2023." byjus.com. "Recently a report found that nine out of 10 individual traders in the equity futures and options segment incurred net losses." India's Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman "said India's gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated at $3.75 trillion in 2023. Mint. This would be just over 3% of the global GDP pegged at $105.6 trillion by the IMF. China's share is at 18% while that of the US is at 25%. "Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) bought $2.2 billion of Indian equities in the first nine days in May, taking total inflow since March to $4.5 billion." ET. Rating agencies are American. They would want US investors to make money but without unforeseen risks. They must be studying India very carefully. It would be unwise to take them for fools.  

Perception of facts.

"The finance ministry will make a pitch to global rating agencies in the coming days for an upgrade in India's sovereign rating, citing a sharp post-pandemic improvement in the country's macroeconomic fundamentals despite global turmoil." "Fitch has retained its sovereign rating for India at the lowest investment grade of 'BBB-' for more than 16 years now." "S&P and Moody's have also maintained such ratings for India at the same level - 'BBB-' and 'BAA3', respectively, with a 'stable' outlook." One reason is that the government's debt is 84% of GDP and interest payment was 26% of revenues in FY23, when the Baa median is around 8.4%. ET. Also, "India's per capita income in nominal terms doubled to Rs 1,72,000 since 2014-15," but "Most of this increase has accrued to the top 10 percent of the population. By contrast, the median wages are falling, and possibly even lower in real terms," said Prof Jayati Ghosh. Ratings are influenced by perception-based indices, wrote Sanjeev Sanyal & Srishti Chauhan. Reporters Without Borders has dropped India's ranking, from 150 out of 189 countries in 2022, to 161 in its press Freedom Index and indices have labeled India as a "Democratic Autocracy". "Their laughable methodology and blatant biases have been highlighted previously in a working paper, titled 'Why India Does Poorly on Global Perception Indices', published in November 2022 by Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister." And the Council people are so impartial and fair? Or, maybe they are so used to the brutality of the Indian state that they think it is normal. They have so easily forgotten how police beat up people who violated the most stringent lockdown imposed with 4 hours notice in 2020 when the number of Covid cases were only 500? HT. They can refresh their memories from this video showing how a caring policeman sanitised his lathi (cane) before starting his rounds. News18. "Former Twitter CEO Jack Dorsey has alleged that the Indian government threatened to shut the platform and raid employees' houses in the country." BBC. He said, "India requested removal of several tweets and accounts linked to farmers' protest in 2020." "Twitter was also asked to censor journalists critical of the government he alleged." "Rubbishing the claims, the Minister of State for IT tweeted that Dorsey's Twitter regime 'had a problem accepting the sovereignty of Indian law'." DH. "No one went to jail nor was Twitter 'shutdown'," Chandrashekhar said. Hon'ble minister has forgotten 21 year old Disha Ravi who was abducted from her home in Bengaluru and thrown into jail by Delhi Police for a toolkit on farmers. The Wire. She has now filed a case against Delhi Police for leaking private information about her to the media. The Wire. Wrestlers protesting against sexual harassment claim that name of the minor was leaked. India Today. Prime Minister Modi has given several television interviews. wrote Karan Thapar. "Watch some of the interviews and the answers will depress you. In some cases, the PM was gifted a platform to say what he wants. Often to criticise the opposition." Instead of criticising foreigners, Sanyal & Chauhan should look at ourselves. In fact, foreigners are very restrained. 

Deserved prize.

Congratulations. "Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Governor Shaktikanta Das, who was confirmed the Governor of the Year Award 2023 by Central Banking...has highlighted how monetary authorities went well beyond their traditional briefs in response to challenges over the last few years. Das received the award in London as part of the Central Banking Awards 2023." ET. Thus proving the point that, "Das' lack of formal education in economics has proven to be a gift that allows him to make unconventional choices with great success." The Print. "He is a retired IAS officer," who "studied history at St. Stephen's College at the University of Delhi." Das held interest rate at 4% for 24 months from May 2020 to May 2022, NDTV, when consumer (CPI) inflation was well above the RBI tolerance level of 6%. rateinflation.com. Masterly inactivity is indeed unconventional and a trained economist may well have panicked. On 14 June, "The US Federal Reserve voted to pause its aggressive campaign of interest rate hikes despite 'elevated' inflation, while indicating a sharp increase could be needed before the end of the year." NDTV. "After 10 straight increases, the Fed's rate-setting committee voted to hold its benchmark lending rate between 5.0 percent and 5.25 percent, the central bank said in a statement." "The Bank of England has raised interest rates for a 12th consecutive time," as "The Bank rate has gone up to 4.5% from 4.25% following a meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee." BBC. "Prices rose by 8.7% in the year to April." "The Bank of Canada hiked its overnight interest rate to a 22-year high of 4.75% on June 7, having kept borrowing costs steady since January to assess the impact of tightening so far." Reuters. "Australia's central bank raised its benchmark rate by a quarter-point on June 16 to an 11-year high of 4.1%." "The European Central Bank raised euro zone borrowing costs to their highest level in 22 years," when "it took its policy rate to 3.5%, a level not seen since 2001." Reuters. "The quarter-percentage-point move was ECB's eighth consecutive interest rate hike since it badly misjudged the tenaciousness of price rises early last year." The ECB's timidity has caused a recession. "The eurozone's economy, formed by 20 EU members who have adopted the euro as their common currency, shrunk by 0.1 percent for a second consecutive quarter." ET Now. "According to the official Eurostat website, the overall inflation for 2023-24 stands at 8.1 percent." "Last month, Germany, the largest economy in the Euro area...said that it had fallen into recession." The RBI is ahead of the curve, opting for a pause in its rate hikes and holding its interest rate at 6.5% in its April meeting. Mint. Already the Deutsche Bank has predicted that the pause is permanent and there will be a 100 basis point cuts in 2024. The Hindu. The RBI is so prescient. Deserves a prize. Absolutely.

They are beginning to find out.

"Nearly 700 students living in Canada are staring at deportation after the admission offer letters issued to them by a Punjab-based immigration and counselling services agent were found to be fake." India Today. "India has been consistently raising the issue with External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar also taking up the matter with his Canadian counterpart, sources said and noted that Canadian authorities have been repeatedly urged to be fair since the students were not at fault." TOI. Neither are the Canadian authorities. They are also victims of a crime committed in India. These students have taken the places of genuine students from India and other countries. Who will compensate those who lost out? "The government of Canada has decided to postpone the deportation." Bad decision. It will only encourage more fraud. But, not just Canada. At least 7 Australian Universities are banning students from Punjab, Haryana, Gujarat, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, and the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir for "fraudulent" and "non-genuine" applications. HT. Last November 7 Punjabi men in Italy protested because they had paid between Rs 0.8 and 2.1 million to fake travel agents who then sent them through 'donkey routes' to work in kiwi farms in Latina, Italy. The Wire. "According to data from the Punjab government, there are 7,200 travel agents across the state. The Punjab Travel Agents Association has 105 registered travel agents as its members." Why are Indians so desperate to escape from their homeland when Prime Minister Narendra Modi promised to "do even more in the times to come so that we can build a strong and prosperous India in the Amrit Kaal." HT. Can't digest so much Amrit (divine nectar) it seems. Fake travel agents are flourishing because our education is also fake. "Business is blooming in India's $117 billion education industry and new colleges are popping up at breakneck speed. Yet thousands of young Indians are finding themselves graduating with limited or no skills." CNBC. An army with worthless degrees. If they can't be employed in India why should other countries take them? Even school text books are being doctored. "In the continuing war of words between NCERT and its former chief advisors, Yogendra Yadav and Suhas Palshikar asserted that the National Council for Education Research 'cannot hide behind our names'," because its "rationalisation exercise has 'mutilated' the books and made them 'academically dysfunctional'." TOI. Mutilate our children in schools and then finish them off in colleges. Why waste time and money on fake learning? "In 2021-22, official data revealed that the secondary school dropout rate in several states exceeded the national average of 12.6 percent. Gujarat, Bihar, Karnataka, Assam and Punjab were among the seven states where the dropout level at secondary school was higher." TOI. Of the 100% recruitment of children in primary schools, "83% girls and 81% boys clear secondary school, while 67.7% of girls and 61.6% of boys clear higher secondary; this results in a whopping 39% dropout rate for boys and a surprising 1.07 female-to-male ratio of students in educational attainment," wrote Shailja Vaidya Gupta. Apparently, IAS officer "Ankur Garg scored 171 out of 170 in a Harvard University examination in macroeconomics." The Print. While thousands with fake education depend on fake travel agents for fake papers to take the donkey route. Make it unnecessary. 

Election in 2024.

"On 2 June 2023, three trains collided in Balasore district, in the state of Odisha in eastern India." wikipedia. "A total of 288 people were killed in the crash and 1,175 others were injured." "There are four tracks at the Bahanaga Bazar station. A railway ministry official told the BBC that lines 1 and 4 had goods trains parked on them. The passenger trains had been traveling in different directions on tracks two and three." BBC. The Coromandel Express traveling at 128 km/h (79.5mph) "left its line and entered the loop line, smashing into the back of a stationary goods train. The goods train was loaded with iron ore, which authorities say meant the passenger train took the entire impact on collision." "In an unusual move, the Centre...announced a CBI probe into the rail accident in Odisha as the railways' preliminary investigation singled out 'interference' with the 'electronic locking system' and 'points', which ensure safe movement of trains as the 'root cause' of the crash." TOI. It is not an "unusual" move at all. By calling in the Criminal Bureau of Investgation (CBI) the accident becomes a crime and the Railways are absolved of all responsibility. It is just a craven cover up. Very usual in India.The same reason why the government disagreed with the WHO figure of over 5 million deaths from Covid. India has two systems for counting deaths: the Civil Registration System (CRS) and the Sample Registration System (SRS) and both are broken. "The CRS fails to capture mortality among the poor, among women and among children. The SRS fails to capture deaths among non-poor and adult men," wrote Pramit Bhattacharya. That allows them to con a brainwashed people. The same reason why an official census is already overdue by two years. "In India, a Census has been conducted once every ten years since 1881. It has been conducted through famines, pandemic, wars, freedom struggle, and post-independence, by the British colonial administration as well as successive governments of independent India - until 2011. The latest Census exercise should have started in 2020 and been completed in 2021, and we should have had new and up to date data on our population," wrote MG Devasahayam. "An official probe into India's rail crash is focusing on suspected manual bypassing of an automated signaling system that guides train movement." It was done "by railway workers to get around signaling hurdles that arose from a malfunctioning barrier used to stop road traffic at a nearby rail-road intersection." Reuters. A report into derailments by the Comptroller and Auditor General (CAG) of India in 2022 "highlighted shortfalls in inspections, failures to submit or accept inquiry reports after accidents, failure to use a dedicated railway fund on priority tasks , a decline in funding track renewal, and inadequate staffing in safety operations." ET. Instead, "A special fund created by the Narendra Modi government in 2017 to improve railway safety was misused to buy foot massagers, crockery, electrical appliances, furniture, winter jackets, computers and escalators, develop gardens, build toilets, pay salaries and bonuses and erect a flag." The Telegraph. With great alacrity the CBI has seized mobile phones of six employees. HT. And, Brij Bhushan Sharan Singh will contest the 2024 general election for the BJP. ET. Ask no questions and you'll be told no lies. Just accept.

It's not philosophy.

"Out of 393 high wealth individuals in the world, 2.8 million are in India (0.7 percent). 90 percent of the people of India have wealth less than the 10000-dollar mark." DNA. $10000 converts to Rs 8,24700 at today's rate of Rs 82.47 to one dollar. xe.com. "In the wealth pyramid, said the old report, 70 percent of Indian families own just 20 percent of wealth." "India hosts just 4 percent of the global middle class (wealth between $10,000 and $100,000). China, on the other hand, contributes nearly one-third of this number." Owing to reforms "India was able to reduce poverty - from 40% in 2004 to 10% in 2019 - however, the drop in poverty merely resulted in an increase in the number of low-income population," wrote Prof Nilanjan Banik. "Data from the recently published India Consumer Economy 360 survey" show that "Between 2016 and 2021, people in the bottom 20 quintile have seen their income growth decline by 20% whereas those in the top 20 quintile have seen their income grow by 20%." "In a short span of 10 years, India has gained positions in the world order with significant positive consequences for the macro and market outlook, Morgan Stanley Research has said in a report." TOI. This report is "an exercise in cherry picking," wrote Vivek Kaul. Once repatriation/disinvestment and the growth of the economy are taken into account, the foreign direct investment (FDI) "figure for 2022-23 stands at 1.2% of GDP, having peaked at 3.5% in 2008-09. In the last 10 years, it has ranged from 1.2% to 2.1%." Corporate income tax collections fell to 3.5% of GDP in 2018-19 from 3.9% in 2007-08. Figures from "30,000 companies, both listed and unlisted, tracked by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), suggest that from 2008-09 to 2020-21, total sales went up by 21%. Profit after tax - thanks to lower tax rates and lower interest rates - went up by a whopping 237%." Worst of all, "in 2015-16, the size of India's agriculture sector was around 4% bigger than manufacturing (in nominal terms). In 2022-23, agriculture was 25% bigger than manufacturing. This was despite increasing tariff protection and programs like production-linked incentives to encourage companies to make in India." "Investment rate has recovered to 29.2% in 2022-23," having fallen to 27.3% in 2020-21 from 35.8% in 2007-08, wrote Vivek Kumar. "Venture capital (VC) investments in Indian startups plunged over 38% in 2022." ET. From $33.8 billion in 2021 to $20.9 billion in 2022. Sequoia, "The fund that just sold India as the hottest venture capital market to global investors and raised $2 billion last year - the largest ever - is itself leaving the country in a huff," wrote Arijit Barman. Except for Accel Partners and Lightspeed Venture, none of the top 10 VCs in the world are in India. Over 800 million people are getting free food grains from the government's Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Ann Yojana. NDTV. Does that reduce poverty? Can a patient, stable on intravenous nutrition, be seen as healthy? The debate is becoming philosophical. When poverty is factual.  

A second home.

"US congressional leaders...invited Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to address a joint meeting of the House of Representatives and Senate on June 22, one of the highest honors Washington affords to foreign dignitaries." Reuters. The letter was signed by both majority and minority leaders of the House and the Senate. "The speech would be Modi's second to a joint meeting of the US legislature, a rare honor for a leader once denied a visa to enter the United States over human rights concern." This is not Modi's second visit, however. He has enjoyed weeks of travel in the US in the 1990s and there are photographs of him in crisp white kurta pajama front of the White House in Washington and another in front of Universal Studios at the other side of the US. Firstpost. New York apparently was a second home to him. An enormous transition from selling tea at Vadnagar railway station, India Today, to weeks of comfortable tourism in the US of A. A House Select Committee on the Strategic Competition between the United States and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) recommended that India be included in Nato Plus 5, which is 31-member Nato plus Australia, New Zealand, Japan, Israel and South Korea. HT. Rejecting the offer, External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar said, "Nato template doesn't apply to India." India TV. Joining will mean a sudden end to India's collaboration with Russia. India's defence exports will stop while US arms manufacturers make huge profits selling to India, wrote MK Bhadrakumar. Then there is cheap Russian oil which allows the government to earn windfall gains in taxes on retail petrol and diesel. "In March, India imported from Russia 1.62 million barrels per day (bpd), 40 percent of its total oil imports, according to the International Energy Agency, up from around 70,000 bpd and just one percent of inflows before the war." ET. So, India is playing both ends against the middle. A local newspaper in Bangladesh. Kalbela "reported that the US will impose fresh sanctions against some former and current officials and political figures," and "It cited growing distance between the Bangladesh government and the US due to sanctions against some officials pf its elite law enforcement agency Rapid Action Battalion (RAB), US refusal to return the killer of Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib and utterances of the current US Ambassador to Dhaka Peter Haas and other issues." ddnews. If the US is hoping to "consecrate" its relationship with India during Mr Modi's visit, Reuters, why is it creating problems for the present government, knowing how the previous Khaleda Zia government supported insurgent violence in the northeast of India and its close alliance with jihadi groups. Daily Pioneer. Bangladesh is to hold general elections in January 2024. wikipedia. Female wrestlers of India protesting against sexual molestation were persuaded by Minister of Youth Affairs and Sports Anurag Thakur to pause their protest for police investigation. BBC. Why sports minister? Sexual assault is a serious crime in the West. The US may seem all sweetness and light at present but it could quickly turn into an iron fist in a velvet glove. Beware of the Jubjub bird. 

Goldilocks in no danger.

"The RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its second bi-monthly meeting of FY'24 kept the repo rate, the interest rate at which it lends to commercial banks, at 6.5 percent." DH. "After two years of battling inflation and growth pangs, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) was in for a pleasant surprise when the economic growth trumped its expectations to hit 7.2 percent last month. This came as an icing after the headline inflation fell to 4.7 percent in April, the lowest since November 2021." ET. But, here's the brilliant thing: The RBI did nothing for 24 months. It kept interest rate unchanged at 4% from May 2020 to May 2022. NDTV. The RBI raised its rate by 40 basis points to 4.40% in an emergency meeting on 4 May 2022, ET, one day before the US Federal Reserve raised its rate by 50 basis points on 5 May 2022. Forbes. Since then its hand was forced by the Fed, albeit reluctantly, which raised its Funds rate by 75 basis points on 4 occasions.  "Economists say this is a Goldilocks moment for the central bank - the inflation is not too high, and the growth is also not too low." Goldilocks was a little girl with golden hair in a fairy story for children, who just managed to escape from three bears. "The CPI (consumer price index) inflation is projected at 5.1 percent for FY24." ET. This is still much higher than the RBI's mandate to keep retail inflation at 4%. ET. Inflation is allowed to fluctuate 2% above or below 4% occasionally, but the RBI seems to have taken 6% as its target. "GDP growth for FY24 is 6.5 percent." "India, which was a part of the 'fragile five' in 2013, has long exited that club," wrote Dharmakirti Joshi and Pankhuri Tandon. "The current account deficit (CAD) has been declining since the second half of last year." "Falling crude oil prices, have helped reduce CAD, along with factors such as rising services exports and increased remittances from Indian workers overseas." "Between 2023-24 and 2026-27, Crisil expects India to grow at 6.7% per year. Over this period, S&P Global expects growth to average 1.4% in the US and 1.2% in Eurozone." Although deficit in goods trade has been over 5.5%, it has been offset by trade in invisibles. howindialives.com. Invisibles are comprised of "the trade in services, and other 'current' transfers of foreign currency into India (essentially anything that is not a loan)." "What comprises India's invisibles trade? Almost from the beginning, there have been two main components software/IT and business services exports, and remittances." "India's inward gross remittances touched an all-time high of $107.5 billion during calendar year 2022, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced." ET. In 2001, remittances accounted for 45% of invisibles but have dropped to 25% today, while software and business services share has jumped from 19% to 40% over the same period. So, is Goldilocks here to stay? The Russian Bear is our friend. As the Air India jet showed. Reuters.      

Apocalypse isn't good news.

"The Pakistan government's total debt has increased 34.1 percent year-on-year to Rs 58.6 trillion at the end of April." ET. "The domestic debt amounted to Rs 36.5 trillion (62.3%) while the external debt accounted for a 37.6% share with Rs 22 trillion at the end of April." "The inflation level rose by a whopping 36.4 percent in the year in April" and "Pakistan has witnessed a fall of nearly 13 percent in remittances sent from abroad in the first ten months of the fiscal year due to the wide gap between the rates of the dollar in interbank and open/grey market." The fall in remittances is in the money sent through official channels and which adds to its foreign exchange reserves. On 25 May, "A central bank statement said...Pakistan's foreign exchange reserves had dropped to $4.19 billion, barely enough to cover a month of controlled imports." Reuters. Pakistani expatriates are sending money through grey market or 'hawala' channels and, since this money stays abroad, it does not add to the badly needed foreign exchange reserves. "Foreign remittance service providers attribute the re-emergence of grey channels to the exchange rate fluctuations that has widened the gap between interbank and open market rates. These gaps promoted the return of 'Hundi or Hawala' networks, where overseas Pakistanis are getting good rates for their remittances." Tribune. Meanwhile, "With Pakistan's debt-to-GDP ratio in a danger zone of 70%, and between 40% and 50% of government revenues earmarked for interest payments this year, only default-stricken Sri Lanka, Ghana and Nigeria are worse off." Tribune. "The economy size in dollar terms declined to $341.554 billion in the outgoing FY23 from $375.449 bn in FY22." Dawn. "The decrease in the economy's size can be attributed to the highest-ever depreciation of the rupee in any year. The per capita income in dollar terms fell to $1,568 in FY23 from $1,766 in the previous year and $1,677 in FY 21." "Pakistan is hurtling towards an apocalypse," because "There are simply too many of us, too many to educate, to keep healthy, to provide jobs for, or to govern in a manner that could ensure the semblance of an ordered society." Dawn. "Each year, there are in  this country 1.4m unwanted births and 2.2m abortions and miscarriages that could be avoided through family planning." An exploding population, falling income and prices rising at 36.4% is an incendiary mix. "The public reaction to (Imran) Khan's arrest has been unprecedented." Dawn. "With the situation getting out of control of civilian law enforcement, the army was called in. Internet and social media services were suspended." "But the images of people ransacking the residence of a top regional commander and attacking military installations in various parts of the country without resistance presented a picture of a fractured state." A civil war in Pakistan is surely good for India, right? "It's not just the economy, but also the rising terrorist threat that has imperiled national security." Probably not.