The smell test of demand.

In China, "The March consumer price index (CPI) - the main gauge of inflation - came in at 0.7%, down from the one percent seen a month earlier, according to the country's National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)." ET. "The producer price index (PPI), which measures the cost of goods leaving factories, shrank for the sixth consecutive month, with prices falling 2.5% - indicating lower margins for business." "The cost of fuel for transport fell 6.4 percent." On the other hand, "India's retail inflation declined marginally to 6.44 percent in February as against 6.52 percent in January, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation said." "India's wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation (similar to PPI in China) eased to 3.85 percent in February on an annual basis from 4.73 percent in January, stated provisional data from Commerce Ministry." ET. So input prices are falling in China while they are still rising in India on top of last year when WPI inflation was rising at over 10%. in.investing.com. The cost of fuel for transport fell 6.4% in China, while the price of diesel, used by all trucks in India, is Rs 89.62 per liter in Delhi and higher in Chennai, Kolkata and Mumbai. ET. Excise duty on one liter of diesel charged by the central government is Rs 15.8, and VAT charged by the state government in Delhi is Rs 13.07, for a total of Rs 28.87. mycar-helpline.com. Excise duty must have increased because, "Indian refiners continue to lap up Russian crude at a discount to other oil grades. Since the Russia-Ukraine conflict began in February 2022, Russia's share of India's imports has risen from less than 1% to 34%." TN. China has yet to see a strong rebound in consumer spending, according to major companies. CNBC. "The greater than expected softness in the consumer price index 'casts doubt on the strength of domestic demand recovery in the household sector'," Zhiwei Zhang, president, Pinpoint Asset Management, said." In India," Consumer demand is expected to stay low over the coming quarters, as inflation continues to rise, creating a further slowdown phase for the startups in the country, states a new report by market research firm Redseer Strategy Consultants." ET. "Core inflation has remained over 6 percent for 17 straight months, a sticky concerns for policymakers." ET. As a result, "As per PWC's Global Consumer Insights Pulse Survey, 63 percent of consumers have changed their non-essential spending habits in the face of the current economic climate, with 20 percent stopping all their non-essential spending." So China is experiencing disinflation because of low demand but prices continue to rise merrily in India despite lower purchasing power of a much poorer population. Doesn't pass the smell test, does it? Fishy. Very.