Monday, April 03, 2023

A beginning. Won't be easy.

"Saudi Arabia and other OPEC+ oil producers...announced further oil output cuts of around 1.16 million barrels per day, in a surprise move that analysts said would cause an immediate rise in prices and the United States called inadvisable." Reuters. This move will "widen crude oil production cuts to 3.66 million barrels per day (bpd) or 3.7% of global demand. The surprise announcement helped push up prices by $5 per barrel to above $85 per barrel." Reuters. "Fears of a fresh banking crisis over the past month have led investors to sell out of risk assets such as commodities with oil prices falling to near $70 per barrel from near all-time high of $139 in March 2022." Also, "Saudi Arabia has been in talks with China to accept yuan for some of its oil sales to China. Fox. In 1945, "the US needed to secure another source for an assured oil supply. In return for access to the Saudi Arabian oil reserves, King Ibn Sa'ud was promised full American military support to the ruling clan of Al Saud. It is vital to understand here that the American security guarantee was extended neither to the people of Saudi Arabia nor to the government of Saudi Arabia but the Al Saud dynasty," wrote Vivek Kaul. US President Joe Biden called Saudi Arabia a "pariah" state during election and adopted "a tougher stance over the kingdom's human rights record and in particular the killing and dismembering of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi in Turkey in 2018." Reuters. This must have been seen by Riyadh as a clear violation of the original understanding between the US and the kingdom to protect the royal family. "Chinese national oil company CNOOC and France's Total Energies have completed China's first yuan-settled LNG trade through the Shanghai Petroleum and Natural Gas Exchange, the exchange said." ET. "Approximately 65,000 tonnes of LNG imported from the UAE changed hands in the trade, it said in a statement." "Saudi Arabia's cabinet approved...a decision to join the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, as Riyadh builds a long-term partnership with China despite US security concerns." Reuters. "The SCO is a political and security union of countries spanning much of Eurasia, including China, India and Russia." In March, "When Saudi Arabia and Iran buried the hatchet in Beijing..., it was a game-changing moment both for the Middle East shaped by their decades old rivalry, and for China's growing influence in the oil-rich region." CNN. India is an importer of oil, so all this intrigue is of great importance to us. "In March, India imported from Russia 1.62 million barrels per day, 40 percent of its total oil imports, according to the International Energy Agency, up from around 70,000 bpd and just one percent of inflows before the war." ET. "Sanctions-hit Russia is looking to settle its oil sales to India in rupees by involving the UAE, two people aware of the proposal said. The rupee settlement mechanism continues to face major roadblocks with little or no trade taking place in the domestic currency. This is in spite of the fact that banks from 18 countries have been permitted by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to open Special Vostro Rupee Accounts (SVRAs) for settling payments in Indian rupees." Mint. Therein lies the problem. The yuan and the rupee are not free floating currencies. Also, India is unlikely to accept yuan for trade because it will make China more powerful and Pakistan and China will not accept the Indian rupee. Still, every empire must come to an end. This may be the beginning of the end of the US empire . Won't be easy, though. 

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