Monday, April 17, 2023

De-dollarization, but not the RMB.

"US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said economic sanctions imposed against Russia and other countries by the United States put the dollar's dominance at risk as targeted nations seek out an alternative." News18. "Of course, it does create a desire on the part of China, of Russia, of Iran to find an alternative," she said. "But the dollar is used as a global currency for reasons that are not easy for other countries to find an alternative with the same properties." "In a Monday note, strategists Joana Freire and Stephen Jen calculated that the greenback accounted for about two-thirds of total global reserves in 2003, then 55% by 2021, and 47% last year." BI. This 8% drop in one year is because of "sanctions taken by the US and its allies against Moscow". The euro's share as a reserve currency jumped by 5% but, "China's yuan, meanwhile, continued to gain at its usual pace and didn't see a big spike as a global reserve currency last year. To be sure, no other currency is set up to challenge the dollar's dominance in international trade." 'In recent years, several countries and regions have embarked on the path towards dedollarisation, driven by a combination of geopolitical, economic, and strategic considerations." Notably China, Russia, Brazil and the European Union. India Times. "De-dollarization has begun as recent trade deals elevate rivals, but the greenback is likely to remain a global currency, according to economist, Peter C Earle." BI. "Earle's note comes as China has actively established agreements with countries such as Kazakhstan, Pakistan, Laos and Brazil to use the yuan for cross-border transactions, replacing the dollar." But the yuan will not replace the dollar because "The yuan is only allowed to trade in a 2% range against a midpoint," and "the Chinese authorities also decide on what capital can flow out of the country, this makes the yuan unreceptive to free market flows." In 2016, "Effective October 1, the IMF is adding the Chinese renminbi (RMB) to the basket of currencies that make up the Special Drawing Right, or SDR." International Monetary Fund. "The RMB joins the SDR basket in addition to the previously included four currencies - the US dollar, the euro, the Japanese yen, and the British pound." But, hopes that the yuan would become freely traded were dashed quite quickly by Chinese authorities. In 2022, "According to SWIFT, in October the dollar was the top currency used in global payments with a 42.1% market share, followed by the euro (34.4%), the British pound (7.85%), the Japanese yen (2.96%) and then the renminbi at 2.44% - its lowest point in a year." Forbes. "The recent driver of renminbi internationalization is the growing China-Russia economic relationship." The Chinese government is terrified of free international trade. In 2015, "The Chinese government has spent 1.5 trillion yuan ($236 billion) trying to prop the country's stock market, according to analysis by Goldman Sach's." CNN. "As long as there is capital control, there will be severe hindrance for the currency to be accepted by the international market," says Hui Feng. "There will be no global status for the currency." If China with a $17 trillion economy and foreign exchange reserves of $3.1332 trillion in February 2023, CEIC, does not dare to let the yuan trade freely, India should stop dreaming about trading in rupees. India will not accept the RMB and Pakistan won't accept the rupee. At least, officially. Status quo.             

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